Good to see you agree there hasn't been a crash in land values in Scotland, swiss paul.
So it follows Barratt haven't bought at the bottom of the market. |
Tipped by Simon Thompson in IC this week FWIW.
He thinks they are well positioned to benefit from the planned Highland housing builds. |
 You dont need avidence just a common sense approach. If a product is not shifting (which you can tell by SPR not shifting much stock) then what happens to the price. On an obverse side when the product is in demand price shoots up.
As an aside I see Innes trousered a nice bonus
Springfield Properties plc (AIM: SPR), aleading housebuilder in Scotland focused on delivering private and affordable housing, announces that, on 17 February 2025, certain employees, including Innes Smith, Chief Executive Officer, exercised options over a total of 138,693 ordinary shares of 0.125 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") under the Company's Performance Share Plan ("PSP"). Admission of the 138,693 new Ordinary Shares has been satisfied via the block listing for the Company's PSP.
Director Shareholding
Innes Smith exercised options over 85,585 Ordinary Shares and, on the same day, subsequently sold 85,585 Ordinary Shares at a price of 106.82 pence per Ordinary Share. Following these transactions, Mr Smith continues to have an interest in 996,374 Ordinary Shares1 in the Company, representing 0.8% of the enlarged issued share capital.
Niiiice - for Innes :-( |
Would you be able to provide a reference for that? I wasn't aware there had been a crash in land values in Scotland?
BTW Springfield say this is the Interim Report, "The majority of Springfield's high-quality land bank has been secured off market without planning, resulting in a very low average cost per plot that enables the Group to maximise the long-term value of its sites." |
Until they want to increase there land bank - and no doubt will buy at the top of the market! Barrat have got themseves a damn good deal - buying at the bottom of the market. |
It's not really a "sweeping redirection" to the north of Scotland. More a re-emphasis of an existing regional focus.
This remains a buy in my view; the land bank book valuations are understated; so these trade at a much larger discount to tangible book value than is apparent.
Moving to net cash removes any realistic concern over potential liquidity crises. |
Transformational doesn't feel too much of an understatement. That large landbank does have real value and I'm glad they capitalised on some of it. The North of Scotland story looks highly credible as a lot of the jobs investment is committed. |
150 TARGET on them |
FY25 profit will be 'significantly ahead of market expectations', according to Springfield's interim results, while debt over our three-year forecast period will fall substantially, then move to a net cash position. This comes with a sweeping redirection of Scotland's only listed housebuilder's operations to the rapidly growing North of Scotland, starting with a major sale agreement announced today with Barratt Redrow for land in Central Scotland. |
Springfield Props. - Progressive publishes new research #SPR @SpringfieldPLC
#voxmarkets undefined |
"Transformational land sale to eliminate debt" - new research report (freely available) here:
Springfield has announced interim results, which are in line with expectations.
The more significant news is a profitable land sale, with the Group selling 2,480 plots to Barratt Redrow for £64.2m. This triggers a material upgrade to revenue and profit expectations in the current year and will eliminate net debt in FY27, as proceeds are received in four instalments.
The land sale will complete by 31 May 2025, with the cash consideration of £64.2m being paid in four tranches over the next four years, with approximately 50% being received in the current financial year.
Springfield will retain a large landbank with 9 years’ visibility at current build rates, with a more focused strategy to capitalise, in particular, on the significant opportunity in the North of Scotland. We believe the deal makes excellent strategic sense, whilst proving the value of the Groups’ substantial land holdings.
Whilst excellent progress has been made on cash generation in recent periods, we believe that the Group’s relatively high debt level has been a factor in the Group’s persistent valuation discount (currently c.15% discount to peers on P/Book basis). Today’s deal should remove any concerns on that front and validate Springfield’s net asset value.
We increase our Fair Value estimate to 150p per share (from 140p), conservatively based on 1x P/Book (FY25E). |
Save the Date! Investor Presentation - 19th February - sign up at the below link!
Springfield Properties (AIM: SPR), a leading housebuilder in Scotland focused on delivering private and affordable housing, will be conducting an online presentation for investors following the release of their Interim Results for the period ended 30th November 2024.
The event will take place at 09.00am on Wednesday 19th February.
Innes Smith (CEO) & Iain Logan (CFO) will be hosting the presentation and answering questions submitted by investors. This is open to all existing and potential shareholders, and registration is free.
You can sign up here: |
something leaking? |
Thanks to the springfield most recent trading update I learnt of this scam
Anyone seen or heard of freeports ??? "A state within a state" and not just in the UK
This is like an offshore tax avoidance scheme, accept it is onshore for corporates. sunak brought this in and could be as many as ten in the uk, which are far reaching covering massive area's
The police, taxman nor council have any jurisdiction within the area. Which makes the ports open to human trafficking, storing assets normally subject to tax. They are not bound by local planning consents and have the "right" compulsory purchase any property they want
FREEPORTS - SELLING OFF SCOTLAND |
lol I will take it.
I have to keep hitting the trades to keep up with good long term performers and it certainly isn't easy, especially not in this market. This market is giving very little. Just a few monster movers about.
I have come out of this today
That 10 year yield just doesn't want to come down....just keeps going higher and higher...and its spiking now so I have come out of alot of trading positions.
It has spiked to 4.8%. These yields have continually been creeping higher on both sides of the Atlantic.
But that spike and any moves higher now...this is a problem.
So airing on the side of caution.
I hope this goes well for you CJohn once we get out of this gloomy patch. No idea when it passes.
All imo
DYOR |
I'm a value investor and rarely bother with short-term price movements; bar fresh news they are well-nigh random anyway.
For that reason, I think it's difficult to put percentages on probabilities; I still believe I can translate what you are currently saying into: "There's a significantly better than even's chance that the share price will move higher than current price in the next month." Would that be a fair summary of what you're saying?
Given the fundamentals, there's a much better than even's chance that this share will trade significantly higher in a year's time. That is why I'm still running my long-term position and haven't taken profits.
Have another hug. |
Hi, sphere25, just one issue with the Victor Meldrew comparison: Vic's much better looking than me. |
 Abitta love on the boards...makes for a change.
I hope you have a good year too CJohn.
You sounded abit like Victor Meldrew earlier.....
"I dooo nottt believeeeeee it!......someone on the boards without posting percentage probabilities!"
"I dooooo notttt believe ittt.......a short term trader in SPR with no mention of value!".
Traders are all different. It is hard to assign probabilities. This sort of chart is difficult to call right too. These can easily make another leg lower and SPR is illiquid so the book can change quite rapidly on low volume.
I think anyone would just wind people up if they sat there picking numbers and percentages. Prices are difficult to predict and this market is tough. Almost only playing for these sorts of bounces, because the confidence and participation just isn't there. It is also very easy to look very stupid on the boards, especially if being more specific with numbers.
In a tough market like this, it is hard to find the trades. When the market gets easier....three years of bad flows...when does it change? But when it changes...hope? And things just go up and up and it is one way, then you'll have the participation and everyone will be bouncing and posting.
Furthermore, I don't know enough about companies to be more specific, because I trade almost any company. I know bits about alot, but there are too many companies and me little head will roll off trying to absorb more information. I'm more about order book movements really.
Alot of trading is on instinct too. Stick a stop loss and exit for a small loss if it doesn't work or exit if it goes stale. Love those small losses and let the winners run. That is how I trade, but each to their own.
But I had stuck this on the watchlist because I thought that plunge was overdone to the downside. Sometimes the price move down can be pricing in a bad trading update. The update was in line so it looked like it could bounce over £1 and sit back in that range between £1 and £1.10.
The market did come in and gobble up the shares from sellers in size at mainly around 89p-90p. Since then it has been nigh on impossible to buy in any size at all price points from 91p (in penny increments) to the current 96p (the price has moved as I have been typing) on the offer. I'm trading a crazy loopy share like VCP and watching others so this is abit slow - have to watch them close. They can gap 5-10% in no time.
Small buys have moved the price here and alot have been negotiated because the online quotes have been closed so trades like Tuesday with the 5k trade at 95p and then someone paid through the offer of 95p to buy at 95.9p - okay that would have been online. Sometimes that is accepted with paying through the offer.
Overall though, identified it, noted the mopping up in the market and then bought (in at just over 91p) with the post here.
Could I sit here and say it was a 75% chance of a bounce over £1?
No. There are too many factors in play.
Did I think there was a reasonable possibility that it could bounce to allow a profitable trade?
Yes
But if it didn't work, I just exit and move on.
But this is just a short term insight. You seemed quite particular on having more detail so here is some detail.
I'm distracted with other things, so this might not be entirely coherent, but an order book update right now:
Price is 93p-97p and it looks like it will go to at least 94p-97. The offer at 97p is once more (as per previous price moves) closed off to buying in size. Cannot even get a quote for market size of just 3k.
So this suggests a strong possibility that the price will continue higher and could trend over £1. Now I don't know the exact price movements. Everything is fluid, shares move differently, but this looks like it could eventually sit over £1.
But this is just one share and abit of the thought process. I just want to trade really. I don't want to sit here and hammer out whopping big posts on every trade.
I bought here, I sold here...I bought here...this percentage...that percentage...50000 posts a year...put you off being an advfn member ha
But there we go, I only post now and again.
And they won't be complete.
Hope this helps
Let's see if it can keep moving higher.
All imo
DYOR |
Hello, sphere 25, first time in my life, I've been called "sir". Probably the last too. Thank you.
Have a great year and a hug from sir. |
see one of the Directors was honoured in the NY list. |
Sorry Sir, I must do better next time |
You need to put a probability on any claim such as, the share price "could break higher". Do you mean a 2% probability? A 20% probability? Or a 75% probability? Otherwise the claim is vacuous.
And in what time frame do you think this will happen. Do you mean today, in the next week, the next three months?
Then you are actually saying something concrete.
On the other hand, well done on spotting the share price is going up. |
Maybe you know exactly how prices are going to move.
I certainly don't.
But it is breaking higher.
All imo
DYOR |
"It could break higher."
It could stay the same. It could break lower. |
I'm wandering around the whole market so there might be some typos. Been trying to buy in here, as well as trading other shares.
It depends on your time horizons as to whether you care about the plunge.
I'm very interested in that plunge and can now see why it has moved from flatline when I posted to starting to break higher with the shares on offer at prices of 91p, 92p and finally 93p closed off through the afternoon.
At least one big buyer in the market explains that - didn't tally initially. Small prints can cause misleading price moves. But there are delayed trades that have hit the book with volume going from practically nothing to just over half a million exchanged:
-Blocks of 182k and 157k picked up at 90p
-Smaller trades of 50k and 68k at 90.2p have then appeared to clear out the sellers at these price points
The bid has then been pushed higher to 89p but there is a buyer in size at 90p now so this could break higher.
All imo
DYOR |
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
Hot Features
Premium
