Spirent Communications Share Discussion Threads

[tipsytoad] 28/9/2005 07:02

many X trades yesterday - in my experience
usually means something is in the offing...

[the knife] 27/9/2005 14:25

thats the sell side, what about the buy side? whats FID doing? i would think vidacos sales were probably not even todays transactions. anyway, shares have hardened after that overhang has been cleared, over 21m traded now. 51.25 just cleared out, sellers seem to be drying up...

[unknown trader] 27/9/2005 11:21

only by about 10m....might be another rns for the
other 10m

[fouroaks] 27/9/2005 11:12

Vidacos Nominees reduced to around 28m shares.

[unknown trader] 27/9/2005 10:06

just might be moving securities from one account to another?

[eug] 27/9/2005 10:01

What are those X trades, hope they are big buys, but share price has not gone up so dont think it is much

[unknown trader] 27/9/2005 10:00

looks like large buys...wonder what is going on? nearly 20m bought!

[blakey4531] 27/9/2005 09:56

will use weakness to get more - as longer term looks positive for SPT - unfortunately in the short term the share price may be soft as the market does not like uncertainity and untill SPT has more definitive facts on the proposed sale of it division I believe the market will punish it.

[mythicalman] 27/9/2005 09:05

i hope SPT doesn't go under 50p, but it sure looks like it will.

[raybald] 26/9/2005 15:55

Indeed, I was thinking much shorter term. I would think that 55p will be back just as soon as the market has analised the implications of the sale and comes (rightly) to the conclusion that it makes sense to do this, and that the lighter company will be stronger.

[the knife] 26/9/2005 13:06

Raybald, my guess is the stock price will be closer to 70 than 50 when this deal is done. but who knows anything for sure? depends on deal getting done, market climate and company specific factors. regards, the knife

[thegrip1] 26/9/2005 12:03

i dont believe the revolution in comms has started yet ,wait till everything goes wireless ,and it will,present network capacity will be far short of requirements........................spt will fly

[raybald] 26/9/2005 10:49

the knife - I would concur.

I got caught knapping on this one back in April and as a result have been a bit more carefull since. I don't see this sale as a bad thing at all, and I think the market will come to see that. The price will be back at 55 shortly IMO.

[the knife] 26/9/2005 08:15

chelseasally, bad luck, think you sold at the bottom :(

[the knife] 26/9/2005 08:14

wireless, i think you got it wrong. the numbers touted may be disappointing, but it hasnt been sold yet, they may do better. but £260m cash, pay back debt, a focused business with approx £278m 2006 revenues, higher growth and margin potential albeit riskier operations, my spreadsheet suggests it should be a value accretive transaction

[the knife] 26/9/2005 08:08

Fly3, HT is a sound business, why should customers lose confidence? i dont think theres any problems here. the business is performing well. there might not even be any job losses. if it becomes part of a larger group such as tyco then customers might be even happier, while if it gets bought by private equity it probably makes little difference. i think you are being excessively negative

for SPT Communications customers though it will be good because the business will be much better capitalised and in a much stronger position to invest in new product development

[fly3] 24/9/2005 21:04

I dont suppose "fingers" is still monitoring this thread and could throw some of his expertise in for comment ?
Here's hoping.

[chelseasally] 23/9/2005 21:04

Bailed out for a while chap's , too rocky for me at the moment , good luck.

[wireless] 23/9/2005 17:04

As a former investor who still keeps a close eye on dear old Spirent selling off half the business even if its boring introduces a 'big unknown' and markets definitely dont like this degree of uncertainty. The share price could therefore be in for a hammering. 48p as a re-entry point no longer looks appealing!

[the knife] 23/9/2005 14:09

sure, if the sale process dragged on that could hurt HT. lets hope it all goes smoothly

[fly3] 23/9/2005 13:57

Long term yes - but my guess is it will be many months of 'unknowns' before the HT sale is completed.
Whats going to happen to market / customer confidence (particularly HT customers) in the next 6 months when no one knows if HT factories / products will be closed / deleted, merged with the buyers facilities, expanded etc. etc.
Maybe Spirent should have had some closed door negotiations with prospective purchasers and then announced it as a 'done deal'.

[the knife] 23/9/2005 13:48

i think SPT consensus turnover for 2006 is about £500m. if HT keeps growing at 9%pa, that implies Communications/Systems about £277m revenues + the net cash position.

i can see what you are concerned about, but my experience is once the deal is out of the way perceptions can change. SPT will have no financial risk and be in a very strong position to accelerate investment in high growth businesses. customers could be very appreciative. the market could warm to that

[eug] 23/9/2005 13:37

The sale of HT makes good business sense if their Communications side has a huge upside potential and the technology is ready to make them big profit, if it is still early technology and needs loads of investment with not guaranteed big returns, then the sale of HT aint good. I hope they not selling HT just to show a good bank balance, make the books look good for finals. AND not to give themselves a nice bonus for a job well done selling HT

[fly3] 23/9/2005 13:26

Cannot argue against your comments but thats assuming they need to sell off HT.
Thats the nub of it.
Agree that focuss will give better results but why kill the cash cow.
Without HT Spirent t/o is £126.5m and an operating profit of £1.8m ( a bit more than 1%)
The Spirent directors will need to have some pretty heavy plans in mind to replace the HT profit
I think I'd rather have my money in the bank at no risk and get 5% return !!