Speymill Share Discussion Threads

[tsmith2] 26/7/2007 08:28

are we heading back to 80ies - chartist's views welcome

I have topped up - this could well be making 10-15/share next year.

[spaceparallax] 25/7/2007 10:21

I don't really have a feel for this economic sentiment system - can you explain how it works?

[lbo] 18/7/2007 13:06

Confidence in Germany declines

Investor confidence in the German economy declined for a second consecutive month in July, dragged down by the euro's rise to record highs against the dollar and rising interest rates and oil prices.

The latest survey by the ZEW economic think tank yesterday showed its economic sentiment indicator for Europe's largest economy fell to 10.4 this month from 20.3 in June

[nickcduk] 09/7/2007 08:44

Interesting to note ACMH acquisition this morning. SYG is extremely undervalued if you read across from the valuation. I guess SYG wasn't likely to be targeted by ACMH simply because of its close links to JM. Another hedge fund manager might fancy their chances though if they looking to add property management to their wider portfolio.

[nickcduk] 04/7/2007 12:03

Nice move up again today. Just given the IoM move some thought and I think they are doing it to reduce their tax bill. Rather than make a song and dance about it they are obviously keeping a low profile. IoM have zero percent corporation tax if I am reading the website correctly.



That should bump up 2008 and beyond forecasts very nicely.

[nickcduk] 03/7/2007 10:05

Some chunky buying going on today. Maybe broker note has got wider coverage. It could be its taking comfort from PUMA. Or what would be be even better is if another fund is close to being launched. SYG does tend to move up ahead when a few people in the know are aware of further fund launches. Heres hoping.

[short1] 29/6/2007 09:24

Does anyone know what capital gains tax implication for the new co. registered in IOM have as normally a co in England will have tax relief to a max of 10% after 2 years holding on AIM shares.Views will be greatly appreciated.

[lbo] 28/6/2007 08:19

American investment fund exits German market

Germans shuddered in 2005 with the arrival on the property market of US investment fund Cerberus. Named after the Greek mythological hound of hell, the fund snapped up 50,000 state-owned apartments in Berlin for €1 billion. Rumours were rife that the Americans would jack up rents, throw pensioners onto the streets and change the market culture forever. Now, after just 18 months, Cerberus is exiting the market with its tail between its legs. The company is reportedly disappointed by the investment yields and frustrated by Germany's rental laws which are a landlord's nightmare and a tenant's dream.

[nickcduk] 26/6/2007 18:54

Not much to say really from TW. Just commenting on the appointment.

[lostboyyats] 26/6/2007 17:04

Update from TW today on SYG. Anyone with the gist of news being good or bad from him?

[mickcrawford] 26/6/2007 14:26

FT today worth reading - US sale deals blow to Germany property hopes :

[short1] 26/6/2007 10:38

New appointment gives us a good clue as to the new expansion of funds and the new region that SYG wish to operate. All good news for the future of the company and all stakeholders.

[irkin] 22/6/2007 16:43

Thanks triktrak.

Lewis Charles have upped their DCF valuation from 97p to 130p. However, if SYG is valued on say a PE of 10 on projected 2008 earnings of 20p, a 12 month share price of 200p looks very possible. The Lewis Charles valuation is based only on the existing funds. My information is that SYG intend to launch a further 2 funds this year, which will increase the projected 2008 earnings and gives further upside to the 200p. This and the fact that I believe SYG have a very strong management team has led me to add a few more today at 97.6p

[nickcduk] 21/6/2007 21:01

Thanks for the update triktrak. Forecasts suggests everything is falling into place nicely for SYG this year. Once it reports profitability it will get a little more attention. I imagine anyone having read any of their results wouldn't have a clue how profitable SYG will be this year unless they had seen the broker forecasts. I imagine with Lewis Charles being the broker not many people will have seen them still.

[triktrak] 21/6/2007 17:06

Lewis Charles have just released their long-awaited note. And what a good read it is. They expect eps this year of 12.7p jumping 50% next year to over 19p.

And they add that performance fees from likely forthcoming additional funds could boost profits even further.

The note says:

Debt has been almost eliminated, the Group is now profitable and we expect strong free cash flow generation in 2007. In the absence of any major investment requirement, Speymill will have the capacity to declare a dividend for the coming financial year although there has been no explicit intention stated so far.

Following revision to our DCF model, our implied valuation increases to 130p representing upside of 36% from the current share price. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

The note can be found on their website

[gsands] 14/6/2007 07:45

Possibly of interest:

FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Boetzelen Real Estate AG said it postponed
its initial public offering planned for today due to "current market
conditions."
The company said the decision does not change its business strategy, adding
it will "closely monitor the development of the capital markets," according to a
statement sent last night.
Boetzelen had planned to list its shares today after offering shares at a
range between 5.50 eur and 7.50 eur each.
Boetzelen, which specialises in acquisition, letting and management of
discount retailers, supermarkets and specialist retail stores in Germany, had
planned to sell up to 25 mln new shares to raise funds for more real estate.

[spaceparallax] 13/6/2007 10:55

Relieved to see the bounce of recent days.

[john hampton] 08/6/2007 13:43

I,m interested in buying into the residential market, say in Berlin, has anyone done so, comments pls etc?

[nickcduk] 08/6/2007 13:37

I don't think its a case of winning the Germans over to buy their own properties that will get the German property market going. German immigration is very high due to a falling birth rate and growing employment. The Germans dont particularly care about owning their own property but they are almost alone in feeling this way. Most immigrants will see the logic and benefits of property ownership versus paying rent etc and they will drag the market up in due course.

[shoee62] 08/6/2007 13:25

this thread needs renaming :-)

[spaceparallax] 08/6/2007 11:25

IC article on SDIC touches upon the lukewarm reception of the German to the idea of home ownership. Pretty neutral really.

[shoee62] 06/6/2007 12:39

as above I wasn't referring to what it does, just the chart pattern.