Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Speymill LSE:SYG London Ordinary Share IM00B1ZBDN89 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 0.325p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:37:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 - 0.19

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Date Time Title Posts
23/7/200612:42speymill chart breakout!!going to Ј2.25-Ј2.50123
22/10/200122:42Tipped by Mail on Sunday27

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someuwin: "Speymill shares up 90% Property investment business, Speymill was a strong mover today and shares pushed ahead by more than 90% after delivering an upbeat trading statement. The Group says that its 100%-owned subsidiary, Speymill Contracts has a forward order book of £18m going into 2011, a significant increase in the committed order book of £3m at the start of 2010. Furthermore that this order book should continue to grow throughout next year. With its German assets, Speymill says that it is examining ways to maximise cash-flow from these assets and continues to be optimistic about the overall outlook for the German residential property sector. The full year results for the year to 30 June 2010 are expected to show a substantial increase in profits and the Group adds that it is aiming to achieve an improvement in like-for-like profitability (excluding exceptional and one off items) in 2011. At the same time, major shareholders Jim Mellon and Bob Macdonald have agreed to reduce the rate of interest on the loan facility provided to the company from 12% to 9%. The mid-market share price was marked up 3.38p to 6.88p - a gain of 96.4% on the day." Story provided by
shammytime: Chart looks lovely. Fast lane to 8p. Beyond that, there isn't really massive resistance so this run could even get us to double digit share price ;)
titeuf_int: Here are some further information on SYG that you guys might find useful : 1) As you know the group has negative equity and got a 3 million loan from Mellon and Co. "The Loan will be applied as working capital for the Group and Speymill Contracts Limited ("Speymill Contracts"). It is however currently the intention of the Board to convert the Loan into convertible preferred shares as part of an offer in which all shareholders of Speymill will have the opportunity to participate. Further announcements will be made on this in due course." This loan finishes on 30/06/2010 !! So how is it going to be repaid ?? There will definitely be an equity raising whatever the outcome of teh SDIC issue => share price to fall further. 2) The group has not issued any annual results for 2009 !! Why do you think that is ? Under AIM regulation, they have 3 weeks to do so or be delisted !! SO there is a huge risk of the group being delisted after the results of the strategic planning.
slapdash: anyone who thinks this has a future should look at the share price of SDIC... one of there listed investment vehicles.. was about 1.39 on 17th Oct and today is 0.89.... says it all slap
nickcduk: One of the problems SYG faces in current markets is that it doesn't really have much institutional interest. Most of its shareholders are small private investors. Sentiment is about as bad as I can remember at the moment amongst that group. It doesn't take much selling to decimate the share price under those circumstances. I have a holding in ITK. It reported better than expected results this week and forecasts were raised 10% for the year. Reaction was a 10% fall in the share price. It was featured by the IC this week as its main tip (kiss of death sometimes!) and even on a day when market is up only £10k worth of shares have been traded. Its extremely grim out there as the rest of my portfolio will also testify.
ivor hunch: Interesting article from t1ps: Since teetering on the brink of financial oblivion in 2005, Speymill (SYG.L) has completely changed direction and now focuses on property investment. With excellent capital gains forecast for its two funds in Germany and one in Macau, China we think that the share price can almost double in just under 18 months. On a 2008 multiple of just 5 and with further upside from new funds to be launched we recommend that you buy. Founded as Wigmore in 1990, this company joined AIM in 2002 and a year later acquired building and maintenance company Blanchards. This turned out to be a bad move, with the business performing badly. In 2005, Blanchards and ground maintenance company First National Property Maintenance were sold. At the same time, the company changed its management team and refocused its strategy. The old core Speymill property management, construction & refurbishment business is still operational but the exciting aspect of this business is its fund management division. The company's property management division - GOAL Service - was founded in September 2005. The business is a joint venture of which Speymill owns 51% and the remaining 49% is owned by German citizen Florian Lanz. Lanz's company - LAGO Service - has around 800 apartments in Berlin which are managed by GOAL and additionally the division has a contract to manage the property interests of private investment company, Burnbrae, in Germany. Burnbrae currently owns around 1,200 apartments in Berlin and its sole beneficiary is Jim Mellon, who we will cover in more detail later. Speymill Contracts, which is the only remaining business left from Wigmore, deals with the construction, fit out and refurbishment of properties in the UK. Established in 1995 the division focuses on the hospitality and leisure sectors and has contracts with various blue chip companies. Speymill is the current preferred contractor for both Whitbread and Sleepwell Hotels, which is owned by Burnbrae. Finally, Speymill Property Managers, established in 2005, is the company's investment fund division which is responsible for finding and managing the acquisition of property and also provides an advisory service to property funds. SPM currently looks after the assets of three funds. The Epicure Berlin Property Company, which closed in November 2005 having raised €127 million is expected to eventually acquire assets, focusing on residential property in Berlin, of around €530 million. Speymill co-advises this fund along with Swiss asset management company Helvetica. GOAL also provides property management services to the properties of the fund. The second fund Speymill Deutsche Immobilien joined AIM in its own right in March 2006 after raising €234 million. The fund is expected to acquire assets worth €975 million in both residential and commercial property in Germany. The manager of this fund estimates that around 35% of the properties in the portfolio will be in the former East Germany (excluding Berlin) and that around 50% will be located in or around the 15 largest cities in Germany. In November 2006, the company launched its third fund, the Macau European banks. The facility, along with the recently completed forward hedging facility, will mean that the interest costs of the €500 million will not be more than 5% over the next seven years. The company has also recently announced that it plans to group all its businesses together into a new holding vehicle. Going forward, this will allow an earlier return of surplus capital by way of dividend payments, while also allowing the tax benefits of being domiciled in the Isle of Man. It is the increasingly international focus of Speymill that has caused these changes to be made. Opportunities and risks The German property market stands out as an anomaly among European property markets. Since the 1990s, residential property prices in Germany have been flat at best while the UK, France and the Netherlands have seen growth of well over 100%. Now Germany - and Berlin especially - looks like a fantastic investment opportunity with demand for housing set to outstrip supply over the next few years. Average yields for residential properties in Germany range between 5.5% and 9%. This opportunity has also been recognised several large institutions including Goldman Sachs, which purchased 65,000 apartments in Berlin for €2.1 billion in 2005. Florian Lanz's expertise in the German property market as well as support from Burnbrae makes this market a particularly attractive area for Speymill. The Macau fund also has a promising future. The special administrative region of China has seen annual GDP growth of 12% over the past six years and this is expected to continue due to the rapid expansion of the service sector in the region. A report by Goldman Sachs published in October last year forecast property prices to rise by 50% in Macau over the next three years. Another opportunity for the company lies in the UK property market. In January 2007, the Government announced the go ahead for tax efficient investment vehicle Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). In return for tax advantages, REITs have to pay out 95% of their net profits as dividends to investors. Speymill could diversify into the UK in the future, attracted by these tax benefits. REITs are expected to start in Germany within the next year which as well as providing tax advantages will provide a good opportunity for Speymill to sell properties at the end of the funds' life. The biggest opportunity for Speymill Contracts lies in the growth that the hospitality industry is currently experiencing. The number of adults using branded budget hotels is estimated to have almost doubled since 1999. Whitbread, which owns the budget hotel company Premier Travel Inn intends to increase the number of rooms in Premier to 45,000 by 2010. Burnbrae also intends to significantly expand its Sleepwell range of budget hotels. As preferred contractor for both these companies this represents a good opportunity for Speymill although we must say that the contracts are not guaranteed. Its is also risky for this business to rely heavily on just two customers. Valuation The investment case is pretty much a no-brainer. The more funds under management that Speymill achieves, the greater the fees that it will earn. As it stands, if Speymill fails to launch any more funds it should still be able to make pre-tax profit of around £7 million in the calendar year of 2007 - which will generate earnings of around 12p, assuming no tax charge due to its historic losses. It will generate cash from fund management fees and Speymill Contracts so its interest payments should be covered comfortably. Considering the growth that is forecast in the German and Macau property markets and the backing that the Contract business has from Burnbrae, we can see little downside. In the near future the company will continue to launch new funds and we would be surprised if another fund was not launched by the end of calendar 2007. In calendar 2008 we should see the company posting revenues of around £71.7 million with pre-tax profits of £15 million. Assuming a full tax charge of 30% for the year we should see earnings of around 18p. For a company with such great growth prospects and a strong management team a forward multiple of 10 is not excessive and on that basis we are setting a December 2008 price target of 180p which implies upside of 79%.
nickcduk: t1ps passed comment on SYG yesterday which has probably helped. Mention of 20p earnings in the next couple of years and a share price above 200p has probably brought a few new holders in. SYG were lucky to have got their secondary fund raising in before market turmoil so earnings look pretty secure going forward.
nickcduk: SYG is getting hammered because we haven't had any updated forecasts for this year. The Macau and SDIC fundraisings should have boosted forecasts and made it clear where earnings were likely to come in at. Instead investors are losing interest as there are no near term catalysts to revive the share price. If Lewis Charles were to come out and say 10p of earnings we would get a bit of rally going. As it is we are getting drip selling which doesn't seem like stopping any time soon. Negative German property stories and rising interest rates are not helping sentiment either at the moment. Im not too concerned about that though because SDIC have interest rate caps on their borrowings and the longer term migration trends into Germany will ensure property prices start to recover sharply. In hindsight I guess we should be grateful we got both second round fundraisings for Macau and SDIC away before recent worries about rising interest rates emerged.
nickcduk: Im not sure that SYG have gone out of their way to avoid telling shareholders what their management fees are. All the details will have been made available in the prospectus for SDIC. Its pretty common practice to leave all the small details in the prospectus rather than issue a specific RNS. If you were really keen on finding out what the exact fees were then Im sure it would be pretty easy to get hold of a copy of the SDIC prospectus. In terms of whether its better to be a shareholder of SDIC or SYG. If SYG gets 20% of the uplift and their annual management fee of saying 0.5%. Im assuming here that GOAL charge 0.5% on top of a further 0.5% for the fund management. SYG share is therefore 0.5% of say 1 billion of property under management. Thats about 5 million a year and lets assume costs are fixed at around 2.5m. They therefore generate 2.5m profits in year 1. If you assume that assets grow evenly of say 5% a year over the period then this is how profits at SYG could pan out. Year 1 2.5m Year 2 2.75m Year 3 3.0m Year 4 3.25m Year 5 3.5m Over the period they get 15m in profits from managing the fund and properties. Shareholders would get 8% a year or so in dividends or roughly 40% over the same period. After 5 years if the fund was wound down and assets had risen 20% then that would generate 134m for shareholders. What your failing to grasp is that shareholders do not keep the lot. 20% of that figure is distributed to SYG and its joint venture partner. Hence SYG shareholders will get 13.4m of that in profits. If you add the 15m or so in profits over the 5 years to the 13.4m they will get on a profit share that equates to 28m+. That is considerably over 100% return at the current share price. SDIC shareholders will get 8% a year in dividend income over the period and keep 107m of profits. The 107m in profits equates to about 66% return for shareholders. That amounts to about 106% return over the 5 years, which is less than what SYG shareholders will make at the current share price over the same period. SYG also generate extra profits from their first German fund which you wouldnt gain the benefit from if you were an SDIC shareholder. SYG may also look to launch further funds which would also boost returns sharply. It therefore is right to say that SYG is a play on the German residential market, just like SDIC, solely on the basis they get their 20% share of profits from any increase in the value of assets. Just for the record, I know you have got the 161.5m and 670m figures from an RNS. I however believe they are totally inaccurate. In their RNS they say they can gear upto 85%. Puma brandenburg will gear upto 80%. Even if they chose the lower figure that would multiply the 161.5m to circa 800m rather than the 670m and therefore generate even larger performance and management fees.
nickcduk: Jeffian - Im not sure if you have got anywhere with regards to finding out the management charges SYG are levying on their property funds. What I do no is that Shore Capital are charging 0.4% annual management charge on their Puma Brandenburg fund. I would be extremely suprised if SYG were able to charge any more than upto 0.5% of assets under management. Especially when Shore Capital have such an excellent record with their property funds over the years. Even if SYG generated 0.5% that would only equate to around 5m in revenues assuming a fully leveraged 1 billion of properties under management. Out of this Epicure take 50% so that leaves SYG with 2.5m. That is prior to costs of managing the fund of say 2m. This would leave SYG making a profit of 1.5m lets say. Thats far short of what the market is forecasting in profits for next year. That suggests GOAL will also generate a significant amount of revenue from actuallly managing the properties themselves. Again I think its a joint venture so they will not get the full benefit. Where SYG will do well is their profit share if the fund rises in value sharply. Puma Brandenburg has a hurdle rate of 8% per annum before Shore are entitled to 20% of additional profits generated. The 8% is easily achieved simply by borrowing at less than 5% and generating rents of 7%+. If over 5 years the value of the properties rises by 20% then SYG would be entitled to 20% of the additional 200million generated. That amounts to about 40m pre tax which of course they would have to share with Epicure. Thats where the big leverage exists and why its a better bet to go for the manager of the fund rather than buying the fund itself. The best property fund management stock on the market was Raven Mount. They have raised about 500m sterling for Raven Russia. They planned to leverage this so they have 2.5 billion to invest in Russian Property. They get an annual management fee of 2% of assets under management. You have read that correctly. They get 2% as opposed to 0.4% that Shore get from Puma Brandenburg. A quick calculation shows thats worth 50m in revenues. They get all the management fees to themselves and they are also on a share of profits above a hurdle rate. The market was very slow to figure out how lucrative this deal is to Raven Mount as can be judged by the constantly rising share price even when the markets were collapsing in May earliar this year. It has a hell of a long way to go still in my opinion once they are fully invested as they have hardly any coverage on ADVFN or in the media as a whole. Well worth looking at if you want some exposure to Russia.
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