Speymill Share Discussion Threads

[sheeneqa] 15/12/2006 17:28

Buy more flats with yer money, they will never be worth nowt, SYG might though.... Heard of Enron......

[cbeadle] 15/12/2006 16:53

? What is the better prospect then, SDIC or SYG. I have just reserved 3 apartments in Berlin myself in excellent areas, the total cost will be under £100,000 !! German real estate is lowly valued wrt the UK and Berlin real estate is lowly valued wrt most other German cities.
If you believe in the ability of German real estate to close the gap with UK real estate,(pinch yourself, often you can buy a hotel or apartment block in D for the price of a UK flat or terraced house !) I would love to know should I buy SDIC OR SYG?

[hiltono] 15/12/2006 16:03

I believe that within the sdic interim results shows that the management fees are going to be well earned as the managers has indicated that the it will atchieve what they said they would in the admission document.That is what I like about this company as it sticks to what it says and achieves the goal.This bodes well for other funds as the city will want to see that the co. has a proven record.What is more important is the fact that the manager has sourced property that already has some upside to valuation which if it continues (and the news coming out of germany is that the economy is growing) then syg shoud make some healthy performance fees at the same time as time as getting the management fee yr in yr out.Remember that a 10% increase in the property price in germany will translate into £20m performance fee half of which syg get = to 200p on the share price.I do not think that that is unrealistic and possibly conservitive if we look to 2009 when the performance fee is due.

[jeffian] 15/12/2006 13:11

"I see SDIC as the German operating arm of the whole Speymill Group". Then I'm afraid you see it completely wrong. SDIC is a quite separate Property Unit Trust whose sole function is to own properties. It has a separate AIM quote and its own shareholders. You could buy shares in it if you wanted (then you WOULD have direct exposure to the German property market as so many here seem to think SYG offers!). The only relationship that SYG has with it is as Fund Manager and Property Manager for which it receives fees, along with those from other Funds which it promotes and manages including other German and Macau funds (so far). The "compelling case" will be if their income from management fees produces a handsome and stable margin above their costs and my only concern in this area is their continuing unwillingness to disclose this. Their income entitlement remains opaque and as I pointed out yesterday their overhead in running these funds is not insubstantial. Besides yet to produce a maiden profit from this side of the business, they also need to turn round the contracting side - previously the main part of the business - which has been loss-making.

Regards, Ian

[spaceparallax] 15/12/2006 12:36

Ian,

Sorry for the delay in coming back to you. You're right in saying that the results are SDIC's rather than SYG - but what's good for the goose etc...
I see SDIC as the German operating arm of the whole Speymill Group, presumably done this way to provide some form of protection to the parent group in the event of problems and perhaps a req't in Germany.

Presumably, we'll see the outworkings of the other parts of the group subsequently.

If you like, I can post the quite thorough tip article, upon which basis I bought - I seem to recall it presented a compelling case at the time. Let me know if you want it.

[jeffian] 14/12/2006 15:38

spaceparallax,

Do you mean SYG or SDIC? (It's the latter's results). It's still not clear to me how much will revert to SYG in the form of fees and how much of that will be profit. They (SYG) are certainly putting in some overhead:-

"Significant Resource Deployed

The Manager and Investment Adviser have deployed significant resource. There are over 100 employees with an office in Berlin (acquisitions, finance, property management and operations) and a satellite office in Munich (acquisitions).

A team of 20 is dedicated to sourcing, analysis, due diligence, negotiation and
purchasing. The regions and major towns in Germany are covered by specialist
"Acquisition Team Managers". The execution team of negotiators has an average
experience of 20 years in German real estate.

Finance and accounting is handled by a team of experienced finance specialists
and accountants and all valuations for financing to date have been conducted by
DTZ Germany.

On the property management side, there is a team of 63 property managers and
book-keepers/accountants. The management team of any newly acquired property
portfolio is retained when appropriate and a "cluster" property management
strategy is to be employed for the pan-German coverage which may include the use of specialist regional firms for satellite operations. The GES Property
Management system has been implemented."

I'm still not sure that everyone who posts here has grasped the difference between the funds which invest in Germany, Macau, wherever, and SYG which is simply the fund manager and a building contractor.

Regards, Ian

[spaceparallax] 14/12/2006 14:52

Results seem pretty upbeat - I would expect a positive market reaction once the MMs have digested the figures.

[staffjam] 13/12/2006 15:43

Just got it. Thanks triktrak - lets hope they're right.

[triktrak] 13/12/2006 14:49

Staffjam

Fortunately Lewis Charles reports are readily available to us private investors.

If you go onto their website, you click the disclaimer and then navigate to the relevant report:

[staffjam] 13/12/2006 11:16

Hi triktrak,
would it be possible to post the contents of this note, or set up a link to it?

[triktrak] 13/12/2006 03:39

Bought into this stock yesterday. November's note from Lewis Charles Securities is very bullish. They give a valuation price of 96p per share with possibly a very healthy dividend pay out in 2007.

[lbo] 12/12/2006 15:52

German investor confidence bounces back: ZEW

December 12, 2006 10:42
Investor confidence in Germany bounced back this month from the 13-year low it had reached last month as the current upswing in the euro zone's biggest economy gains breadth and momentum.

The ZEW economic research institute's economic expectations index, based on a poll of 303 analysts and institutional investors, rose by 9.5 points to -19 points in December, ZEW said in a statement.

While analysts had been expecting the index to bounce back, they had been pencilling in a much more modest increase from the November reading of -28.5 points, which had been the lowest level since 1993.


'The upward movement is probably attributable to the fact that the current economic upturn is gaining in breadth and is forming a stable basis for 2007,' said ZEW President Wolfgang Franz.

After 10 months of consecutive declines, 'expectations seem to ave passed their trough and are on the rise again thanks to the robust economic outlook.'

Nevertheless, it was up to the government to press more decisively ahead with reforms, Franz added.

The ZEW indicator represents the balance between positive and negative expectations for the economy over the next six months. If most analysts and institutional investors polled believe the economy will improve, the index shows a plus. If most are expecting a deterioriation, the index shows a minus.

ZEW also polls analysts and insitutional investors about their assessments of the current situation. The 'current situation index' showed a further improvement, rising by 10.5 points to +63.5 points in December, a record high.

[rogerbridge] 11/12/2006 22:27

Nice mention in Moneyweek about prospects for property in Macau.

[lbo] 10/12/2006 16:56

Germany's jobless rate falls below 4M
By GEIR MOULSON


Germany's unemployment rate dropped to 9.6 percent in November as the number of people out of work fell below 4 million for the first time in more than four years -- the latest evidence of a gathering recovery in Europe's biggest economy.

The unadjusted jobless rate declined from 9.8 percent in September, while the number of Germans registered as unemployed sank by 89,000 to 3.995 million, the government's Federal Labor Agency said Thursday.

The figure was last below the politically sensitive 4 million mark in October 2002, when it stood at nearly 3.93 million.

The labor agency credited the improvement above all to the strengthening of the economy, although it said unusually mild weather also was a factor in extending a traditional autumn job upswing into November.

Helped by a sustained boom in exports and by investment at home, Germany is emerging from years of sluggish growth. Over recent months, the upturn has finally begun to make itself felt in the labor market.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of people without a job fell by 86,000 in November -- far more than the 25,000 forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The adjusted jobless rate fell to 10.2 percent from 10.4 percent in October.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has made tackling persistently high unemployment a key focus. Thursday's figures provided another landmark after the unadjusted jobless rate in October dropped below 10 percent for the first time in four years.

"This is a good, outstanding and wonderful development, but one that also challenges us to even more efforts" to combat unemployment, Vice Chancellor Franz Muentefering told parliament.

Muentefering, who is also labor minister, pointed to the fact that 536,000 fewer people were unemployed in November than a year earlier -- "that's a small major city."

Unemployment was a key factor in the election defeat last year of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's center-left government. Schroeder once promised to get unemployment down to 3.5 million, but instead saw the jobless total rise above 5 million last year for the first time in post-World War II Germany.

UniCredit economists Alexander Koch and Andreas Rees forecast in a research note that "the upswing on the German labor market will continue," with the jobless total averaging 4.1 million over the course of 2007 -- compared with 4.5 million this year.

But they also cautioned that "the increase in employment is ... still well shy of the average of past employment cycles" and said temporary jobs have been a significant factor.

"So far at least, companies have remained cautious," they wrote. "The good economic development next year should gradually change this. Only a hard landing by the global economy could still prevent a sustained recovery on the labor market."

Germany's upturn has been echoed by lower unemployment in neighboring France, another major euro-zone economy. France's jobless rate stood unchanged at 8.8 percent in October, the lowest level in more than five years.

Economists are hopeful that lower German unemployment will boost consumer spending, despite figures released Thursday that showed retail sales unexpectedly declining slightly in October.

Sales fell 0.2 percent from the previous month and 0.8 percent from a year earlier despite increasing sales of household appliances and home improvement products.

Surveys have pointed to rising consumer confidence as unemployment falls and shoppers eye purchases ahead of a planned January increase in value-added tax.

[staffjam] 07/12/2006 12:48

Typical SYG, always a move down before a massive spike up. (Apologies for the shameless ramp but i had a few early beers.) Lets hear it for 80p before the new year.

[rampmeister] 07/12/2006 10:29

We probably need small retracement to gather strength to break through next barrier around 70p. Imagine some buyers holding off until they see a dip no one likes buying on top of a spike.

RM

[spaceparallax] 04/12/2006 09:49

Good RNS on the Macau fund being put to use already, especially given what appears to be the attractive discount obtained on the independent market valuation.

[lbo] 30/11/2006 12:24

Feel sorry for him. Terrible accident he had on a motor bike

[spaceparallax] 30/11/2006 12:16

LBO,

Thanks for that - I note you seem to be spreading EK's views elsewhere today.

[lbo] 30/11/2006 11:55

The motor bike man Evil Kinevil says

"I see that Speymill (SYG) has announced further investments by its AIM listed German operation. The market does not seem to realise what a fat management fee Speymill earns every time one of its funds adds to its portfolio. For once the diarist has got this one right. I see no reason why, within two or three years, earnings per share could not hit 19p. The key point is that Speymill will earn an annual management fee so that number is sustainable and indeed should grow. At 65.25p these shares really are very cheap"


(but should we take share advice from someone who rides a motor bike?)

[andrbea] 29/11/2006 15:09

German property

Grainger to be colossusNov 29 2006




By Nigel Stirling, The Journal





Landlord Grainger Trust has set its sights on doubling the value of assets it owns or manages for investors to £4bn within five years.

The Newcastle plc, already the UK's largest quoted residential landlord, announced its intention yesterday to establish itself as the "leading European co-investing [residential property] fund manager".




In the past couple of years, Grainger has responded by building up a £120m German residential portfolio as well as a significant development programme in the UK and to a lesser extent in mainland Europe. And last week it announced the transfer of its £210m UK market-rented portfolio into a property fund, G:res 1, half of which it has already sold to institutional investors.


It intends eventually to expand the fund to include £1bn-worth of properties and reduce its stake to about 20%.


Finance director Andrew Cunningham yesterday foreshadowed moving the company's German properties into a property fund.


He said: "Grainger at the moment owns around £2bn of property. If the fund we announced last week reaches £1bn, we are talking about £3bn-worth of property owned or under management.


"If we can get the German portfolio up to a couple of hundred million [pounds], we could see the portfolio [reach] £4bn. That is the five-year plan."


Mr Cunningham said the company's completed developments could also provide a "potential source of product" for co-investing property funds.


Grainger's new business model:


Regulated tenancies (including shares of tenancies in joint venture) valued at £1.47bn (2005: £1.37bn)


Home reversion business valued at £241m (vacant possession value of £421m) compared with £196m in 2005 (vacant possession value then £354m)


UK development portfolio worth £90m (2005: £124m). Since year-end, secured site for joint venture with Development Securities for £350m Birmingham project


Fund management employs 103 in UK and Germany to run properties in funds and Grainger's UK portfolio. Total annual income £4m

[andrbea] 29/11/2006 15:07

22 Nov

A Tulip Financial Research study of high-net-worth individuals representing the top 1% wealthiest individuals in the UK, France and Germany has found people in Germany are more likely to invest in residential property.

This is partly because the residential market there has lagged other major markets around the world – German house prices there have actually fallen over the past two years – but also because the low rate of home ownership means rental yields are seen as more important.

By investing heavily now, Germany's wealthier investors are looking to take advantage of high rental yields, but with an eye to more rapid capital appreciation in future.

"The German wealth elite is the wealthiest of the three, but the relatively low level of home ownership in Germany contributes to this as does the high importance of the rented sector," Tulip Financial Reserch states.

"This leads many wealthy Germans to invest heavily in rented property as it provides high yields – and Germans invest more for yield as opposed to capital growth than do the wealthy in France and the UK. This explains why the German wealthy have a higher asset allocation to property than the French or the British."

[andrbea] 29/11/2006 15:07

22 Nov

A Tulip Financial Research study of high-net-worth individuals representing the top 1% wealthiest individuals in the UK, France and Germany has found people in Germany are more likely to invest in residential property.

This is partly because the residential market there has lagged other major markets around the world – German house prices there have actually fallen over the past two years – but also because the low rate of home ownership means rental yields are seen as more important.

By investing heavily now, Germany's wealthier investors are looking to take advantage of high rental yields, but with an eye to more rapid capital appreciation in future.

"The German wealth elite is the wealthiest of the three, but the relatively low level of home ownership in Germany contributes to this as does the high importance of the rented sector," Tulip Financial Reserch states.

"This leads many wealthy Germans to invest heavily in rented property as it provides high yields – and Germans invest more for yield as opposed to capital growth than do the wealthy in France and the UK. This explains why the German wealthy have a higher asset allocation to property than the French or the British."