Southern Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 12/4/2023 06:47

The principal factor impacting the price/demand for Nat Gas/LNG over the last year has been Asia (population: 4.8 billion), the world's largest and fastest growing importer temporarily pivoting back to coal for electricity generation after prices took off last spring/summer.

Prior to 2022, for a decade, Asia paid an average of THREE times the price consumers paid in the US for Nat Gas, yet were still the World's fastest growing region for Nat Gas consumption with daylight second.

Once Asia reverts back towards Nat Gas and away from coal fro power generation for health/pollution reasons, demand will recover and push pricing back Northwards.

[little minx] 12/4/2023 04:32

https://twitter.com/bluegoldr/status/1645905461592616960?s=46&t=E_o_fkXDl8Oo66JcZQysRQ

[zinzano] 11/4/2023 20:14

Natural Gas Prices to Climb Above $3 in Q3 Amid ‘Relatively Flat’ Production Growth, EIA Says


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Natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub will average $2.65/MMBtu in the second quarter before climbing above the $3 mark in 3Q2023 amid increased consumption and flat domestic production, according to updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

STEO
Henry Hub prices also averaged $2.65 in the first quarter as “spring-like” temperatures tamped down demand in early 2023, the agency noted in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published Tuesday.

However, prices are poised to rise later this year as summer cooling demand kicks in and as production volumes remain “relatively flat,” according to the latest STEO.

“We expect relatively flat U.S. natural gas production, rising demand for feed gas from Freeport LNG as the export terminal returns to full operations, and increased natural gas consumption in the electric power sector to raise natural gas prices through the summer,” researchers said. “We forecast the Henry Hub price to average slightly more than $3.00/MMBtu in 3Q2023.”

U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 101.6 Bcf/d during the first quarter of 2023, a 1.4% increase over 4Q2022 output, with mild winter weather limiting disruptions from freeze-offs, EIA said.

The latest STEO modeled average domestic production of 100.9 Bcf/d for full-year 2023, a 3% increase over 2022 output.

“If production were to increase by more than our forecast, it could put downward pressure on natural gas prices,” researchers said. “Alternatively, if declines are more than in our forecast, it would likely lead to higher prices, other factors equal.”

[Want to know how global LNG demand impacts North American fundamentals? To find out, subscribe to LNG Insight.]

Natural gas exited the injection season at an estimated 1,856 Bcf, or a 19% surplus to the five-year average, according to EIA.

The latest STEO modeled a total inventory increase of 1,985 Bcf for April through October, in line with the five-year average for injections for the period. This would leave end-October inventories at 3,842 Bcf, or 6% above the five-year average.

“Ultimately, natural gas inventories at the end of October will depend on temperatures throughout the summer,” which will also influence the trajectory of natural gas prices, researchers said

[little minx] 11/4/2023 09:40

Good. Results soon.

[jungmana] 11/4/2023 08:53

All buys there.

[the_gold_mine] 10/4/2023 18:20

If anyone could predict what the gas price was going to do over 9 months they'd be a rich man. Too many variable to predict:-

- Weather
- Canadian imports
- Power burn
- LNG Export demand
- Whether new pipeline projects come online on schedule (permitting problems, construction delays, etc)
- Whether new LNG export facilities come online on schedule (see above)

Unless you're a paid up analyst tracking all the data and potential future changes you ain't got a hope in hell of sorting it out

[bountyhunter] 10/4/2023 18:11

Shows by how much forecasts can change in just 3 months and illustrates their unreliability.

Canada and HH gas are both going in the right direction this evening.

[jailbird] 10/4/2023 12:13

Good article

What Will Henry Hub Gas Price Be at End of the Year?

hxxps://www.rigzone.com/news/what_will_henry_hub_gas_price_be_at_end_of_the_year-10-apr-2023-172484-article/


Any thoughts?

[little minx] 07/4/2023 20:34

Or Bulgaria offering a decent price for our gas!

[jailbird] 07/4/2023 15:25

Let's us hope for some positive news soonWe need it here .

[little minx] 07/4/2023 06:57

And the effects of Freeport reopening to full capacity should be seen in the next report.

[jailbird] 07/4/2023 04:41

Hi, here is something I thought you might find interesting: - https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/natural-gas-down-4th-week-in-5-dives-below-2-support-again-2977821

[little minx] 06/4/2023 12:51

Gas storage data US due this afternoon. Wonder if Freeport will impact although probably only fully operational for a few days.

[jungmana] 05/4/2023 15:33

Have a look at AET and AXL. As always dyor

[peakyblinderssss] 05/4/2023 10:29

I would like to hear about other energy companies do you have some in mind that I can look into?

[little minx] 05/4/2023 10:21

And lots of gas producers are cutting back and China opening up and the exports will pick up. There is an example somewhere of the increase in LNG exports last year. If I remember correctly could have been 22% but don't hold me to it.The new LNG facilities won't be built for a couple of years and the government is asking about the contracts to make sure they will be profitable otherwise they don't get the go ahead.

[jailbird] 05/4/2023 10:12

Not sure to he honest Still waiting for the catalyst that will cause prices to rise again .I am trying to understand this model because gas prices are always gonna be volatile . If oil drops too low, we have OPEC cutting supply to stabilise prices again . Looks like we need a period of supply cuts in gas before see it happen here

[little minx] 05/4/2023 09:46

Look at the link on 2304 better insight

[jailbird] 05/4/2023 09:40

NG is over supplied , there is not much positive news for gas , not even Freeport opening is going to help much

[jailbird] 05/4/2023 09:39

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Are-Begging-For-Supply-Cuts.amp.html

[little minx] 05/4/2023 09:25

And now apparently selling 125k for more than the 100k.

[little minx] 05/4/2023 08:06

Normal games resume why offer more for a 100k sale than a 50k odd one! Or is it a buy?

[little minx] 05/4/2023 06:51

Interesting figures https://twitter.com/tpi_efficiency/status/1642985857090207746?s=46&t=E_o_fkXDl8Oo66JcZQysRQ