South China Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davethechef] 31/5/2007 16:58

The 790K ? at 8ish, i'd suggest is a buy, which i guess was the main reason SCR started rising from the outset on otherwise little volume.
However, at this price SCR does appear, as of the end of yesterday aswell, be attracting some modest speculative buying.

[davethechef] 31/5/2007 16:53

For new posters who may not have seen this article, although 3mths old, Tibet's vast undiscovered mineral wealth is much in demand, but for SCR it's a case of IF the Zhunuo project can eventually become reality with production.

And still no news on the Xi'an Landmark Agreement of April 06( that was seemingly quite an impressive JV at the time which shot the S.P to record highs) Is the well respected John Allen still onboard SCR, anyone know?

[sandbank] 31/5/2007 15:25

Hmmmm. It's heads. I lose

[genius85uk] 31/5/2007 15:11

Toss a coin...

[sandbank] 31/5/2007 15:11

Well team - shall I take the plunge and buy in or not? ....That spread is a bit daunting though!

[simon54] 31/5/2007 13:51

Frankly, I think this is a share where some people know what's going on, and they're not us.

[dogm4n] 31/5/2007 09:09

Even during such a negative Company time some one still mopping up the small PI sells, 790,000 just gone through at 3.125 Buy or Sell I WONDER ?. I believe company shelved D after 18 months of desperate drilling as they would much rather invest heavily into a company maker Project Z, only time will tell....

[nobull] 31/5/2007 08:44

Simon "those who make huge commitments to one play which works out must be smarter than us, whereas they may just be the random survivors of a game largely determined by chance." I agree they are random survivors, not smarter. Backtesting my system, I am sure I would have happily invested in Barings Bank, if it ever was a listed company. Big proprietorial (if that's the right word) stakes in the business, debt minimal and the business having a strong franchise rules out a lot of companies. Have a few other criteria, but may be best not to go into those on a public BB! Businesses that sell big ticket items are perhaps more dangerous, and businesses that sell to other businesses are more difficult to keep track of in my experience. I've been lucky with timing on some cyclical stocks, so most of my gains have been due to luck, not skill. I should have been scared out of Oxus when it hit 9p, but wasn't by two thoughts that made me hold on that wouldn't have influenced a professional investor. I am still very much a novice at this game. As to the future of this company I have no idea either. I must be holding out of hope now (not a good reason). Agree with Wols SCR is worth anything between 0 and £5m now. Regards.

[davethechef] 31/5/2007 08:12

I've transferred most of my dire losses to HAWK recently. Another encouraging update today; still have afew of these, wishing for better times, mmmm

[tippingpoint] 30/5/2007 23:08

I guess the road to recovery depends first upon funding in whatever capacity (and the terms of the funding will determine how far recovery in shareholder value terms is down the road)

I am watching and waiting..

[simon54] 30/5/2007 23:00

Well, you always have some bulls that never turn - so the last bull turning is just the last turnable one!

Re your q about the Zhunuo contract - I doubt that defaulting on anything would have much consequence. Already in dire straights by such a stage, I think!

[tippingpoint] 30/5/2007 22:56

who is the last bull - no bull?

[simon54] 30/5/2007 22:55

tp - yup, the last bull has almost turned, I think. That's meant to be the best moment, yes? ;-)

[tippingpoint] 30/5/2007 22:55

Could the legal contract to purchase Zhunuo licence from the fertiliser company put them in dire straits if they cant get the financial backing?

[tippingpoint] 30/5/2007 22:53

Well near deserted bb today, very few buys, falling share price, confidence battered, company questioned re strategy, rationale and operations. Any contrarians out there - getting close to buy time if this destitution continues.

imho

[simon54] 30/5/2007 22:52

nobull - the thing with all the eggs in one basket is that it's a strategy that proves itself by those who end up with a basket full of eggs - and those who have broken eggs were just idiots, I guess... It's 'survivorship bias' or whatever it's called - we tend to think that those who make huge commitments to one play which works out must be smarter than us, whereas they may just be the random survivors of a game largely determined by chance.

I think this has been, relatively speaking, a smart thread - and look where that got us! I don't think good judgement can do more than to edge the odds in our favour. Given the limitations of what we can know, it can't get us much beyond a 60/40 bonus at best, perhaps - in which case, I'd rather take lots of bets rather than one, knowing that some of them are going to bum out.

I'm being wise after the event here. I should listen to myself sometimes ;-)

I got to know this share fairly well, I think. On reflection, I'm not at all sure that knowledge helped me much. Perhaps the opposite - I could keep thinking of rational answers to the doubts that my instinct threw up. Curiously, I don't post much about the shares I hold which are doing well - and sometimes I have to make myself go back and research the basics of them again. Whereas I always seem to have every detail of the dogs at my mind's fingertips....

As for what happens to this company , I don't think any of us has got much of an idea, to be honest.

[simon54] 30/5/2007 22:24

Thank you, RA1.

Good luck to you too - we all need it, along with some judgement.

[ra1] 30/5/2007 22:20

simon54

I will not post on SCR anymore.

Gd luck.

[nobull] 30/5/2007 22:02

Thanks Simon for that. In the past I've done alright from putting almost all my eggs in one basket. It tends to make me think of nothing else but the one or two stocks I've put everything into. I see it isn't a sensible strategy with early stage mining stocks. So I suppose I'll have to put Wols' risk management lesson into practice and reduce my holding here at some point, preferably before what I fear happens to this company, even if the directors are doing everything to make sure it doesn't.

[simon54] 30/5/2007 21:37

nobull - hi - well, it tends to follow that larger holdings will be the ones that have done well (although, in fact, MANA has been a pain in the backside for two years!). Generally I tend to make initial investments of about 3 - 10% of my available funds, so if something goes on to do well it's bound to figure large in my portfolio, if you see what I mean. At the other end I have shares that have been poor, such as UGY Uruguay Minerals and dear old SCR ;-). I do diversify, and that's the effect of it - the successful ones are bound to end up being the larger holdings (excuse the repetition). I did break my self-imposed rules with SCR though, at the time the Business Licence was achieved, when I thought it was significantly de-risked, d'oh. So, that's my lesson from this - stick to my strategy!

[nobull] 30/5/2007 21:27

Simon, some real sparklers there in your portfolio. Well all of them have done very well? Even Mano was up in the best risers of the day recently? EUM for production soon. Petra more than doubled since IC tipped it.

[simon54] 30/5/2007 21:11

RA1 - let me make an appeal to you, and an offer.

Firstly the appeal. Most people posting here now have lost money on this share, myself included. Nobody has manipulated a profit - any such would be long gone. It would be decent to allow people to wish one another well, to maintain the respect that has been typical of this thread, to lick their wounds, if you like, and to share some sense of a negative experience that we can learn from. Please, allow us to do that if we wish to.

Secondly, the offer. As I said to you several months ago, this share had become a small holding for me - the market took care of that. If you wish to pursue your personal spite against me, you would do better to target my major holdings. So, here they are:

OIL Oilexco
MANA Mano River Resources
EUM European Minerals
PDL Petra Diamonds

...and so on, that'll do. I do not think that you can damage my interests, but if you wish to continue the attempt your efforts would be better employed against those shares rather than here.

Show some decency, please, and leave this thread alone.

[nobull] 30/5/2007 21:10

Not got much to add to what has already been said:
The lesson I draw is to pay more attention to RNS's than to other sources of information. To put out an inaccurate RNS would be to mislead the market but to overegg (that is "overegg" with the benefit of hindsight) the prospects of the company elsewhere because one failed to put in the necessary caveats all the time would make all speech and conversation impossibly difficult with CEO(hence not a punishable offence even if it causes wealth loss to the unwary like myself from failing to remember the risks?). An interesting example to look at is the difference between "Danfeng may be of economic interest" (RNS) and "These high grade structures [at Danfeng] will be targeted first when mining commences" (Company web site). One implies production is far from certain while the other makes it sound like production is a certainty. I would guess some of the reason for the discrepancy is that they were written at different times and some geological risk didn't go in our favour in the intervening period. Wols has hinted at some of the other reasons also, but I think on this occasion RA1's explanation about the Directors being crooked is wrong. I still hold my shares and have considered the example of how one of the Henley's directors bought a stack of shares just before that went bust, so I don't draw any comfort now from AC's purchase of 1.8m? at between 5p and 6p? Besides a director buying shares is not the same as me buying (he can use his greater stake to gain advantages for himself that I can't in any company reconstruction?). Thanks Wols for the lesson on risk management. Agree with everyone these shares are now a very very high risk punt on us holding on to any part of the projects left in any further funding agreement, which may not happen (i.e. these things could go bust, and much quicker than you think: English redundancy payments are quite high? so the company can have loads of cash left but still be insolvent if there isn't enough to pay all those redundancy costs?). Congratulations to those who got out today. I would not be surprised if these shares are tipped as a "sell" simply because the Directors don't have a strategy (none that I can discern, and it isn't for lack of trying to find out!) other than (I presume) a vague one of trying to turn the company round. Thanks Simon for all your wisdom.

[ra1] 30/5/2007 20:48

wolstencroft

thnks

[simon54] 30/5/2007 20:46

Hey Tony - I think that triumph here was more of an imposter than disaster: somehow, the latter is seeming pretty convincing!

Maybe we all deserved better in some ways.

Anyway, my crowning achievement with this share is that somebody (can't remember) had a crack at my Chicken Tarragon recipe and thought it was good. Money comes and goes, but damn, a good recipe lives on forever ;-)

All the best to you and any others who have passed this way! :-)