South China Resources Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 21/5/2007 13:34

I don't think the directors will want their shares to be worthless. I therefore expect AC to turn this company round. The intention to go for a low throughput at Danfeng, as expressed privately, sounds like a low risk approach. The words in the relevant RNS "may be of economic interest" might be just to cover unexpected events (a collapse in the copper price?). Anyway we shall see shortly. Continuing to hold.

[simon54] 21/5/2007 13:19

I am, of course, both a deity and a cretin - the former when I get things right and the later when not ;-) Neither really, of course (certainly not the former), maybe I just mean that sometimes I'm lucky and sometimes I'm not. Over all, if that can balance out 60/40 in my favour then I hope to do ok.

I agree, of course, that they haven't achieved what they said they would, which is rather obviously reflected in the price. Mind you, Wols, didn't Silvercorp have a bit of a hiccup with the first areas they were exploring? And the rest is history, so to speak.

Idio, you say "I also fail to see why anybody would hold the shares purely based purely on a Tibetan dream. They can't finance it without diluting shareholders to the extreme... etc. Fair enough if you're not interested in such plays, but this is not specific to SCR by any means. Obviously there are many companies in exactly this position. Some such never deliver shareholder value, some do so spectacularly, despite the obvious fact that they can only develop by means of future dilution. Zhunuo is a discovered resource, so it's not exactly as speculative as some exploration ventures (the speculation is much more to do with whether or not they can close the deal).

[strow] 21/5/2007 13:09

Well thank you-all i can say as that ive been assured they are trying and im hoping to have something worth all the waiting soon
A/C was in china last week,?whether he is back this week,but i think things are happening,its just a question of when it is possible to release the information-no point having a half baked rns if you know what i mean
added to that w,doesnt the fact that somebody is soaking up a lot of your/others selling mean anything to you-in the quantities they are buying,they would be mad to be doing this just on blind faith

[wolstencroft] 21/5/2007 13:02

Strow I have no contempt for you and I believe that neither myself nor idioterna are deities or cretins. However, have a look at the post I made recently with all AC's comments. To say that he has lost credibility based on what he told me and no doubt other investors is, I believe, to state the obvious.

I have many shares still in SCR. I will keep on selling gradually but not sell dowen my entire holding until they have some decent news at which time I will stop selling, buy some back or sell the remaining.

I mentioned nautilus to Idioterna - have a look what sort of rabbit they have pulled out of the hat in the last 2 years and what have SCR done? No news on bulk sampling, moly assays, mining decision, etc etc. They have no drill rigs turning. How will they add value at the current moment in time?

[strow] 21/5/2007 12:47

Combination of both would be nice and what makes you think they wont?-i just feel both of you have something bordering on contempt for this company now and seemingly for me also-its amazing how things change when the going gets tough-in my view its all about accepting personal responsibility for ones actions and about being able to accept disappointment-its either like the board is now frequented with deities or cretins(of which apparently i am one)-such a shame

[wolstencroft] 21/5/2007 12:46

so theyt might as well do what they said they would when they floated which is near term production and return cash to shareholders rather than endlessly invesitgate new projects.

[strow] 21/5/2007 12:44

well they might as well give up then hadnt they-not

[wolstencroft] 21/5/2007 12:43

Idioterna: I used to trade warrants a lot - especially prior to the Asian crisis in 1998. But in retrospect I was never good at timing which as you say with the time decay factor is important (if only TEM's warrants expired in 2006 and not 2004!). Back in the old days when everything was more rationally valued the CFP on a warrant was intimately related to prevailing interest rates because in theory one could borrow money to invest in the stock to get the same return as a warrant. This would then be used to determine if the warrant was valed fairly or not. However, I never really followed (believed) Black-Scholes valuations.

What shocked me in a recent analysis of the past 5 years is how few stocks have made so much difference (Silvercorp, Asia Energy, Peter Hambro, Oxus, Avocet, Endeavour, Nautilus) and stripping those out how I could have just bought MLW and spent more time in the garden.

Well done with BP - I have only recently moved back into oil. Not knowing much about exploration I have stuck with the majors (BP Shell Exxon etc).

I think 650 is a lowish target for BP.

If you have a horizon of a few years might I suggest NUS?



circa forward p/e of 1 to 1.5 and the possibility of changing mining forever.

[idioterna] 21/5/2007 12:23

wolstencroft - It could be luck (my BP warrants are up another 23 & 15% respectively, as I type), but I tend to rotate sectors and focus on specific stocks in different sectors. The essence is, as you say, in the timing. I hold equity in about a dozen stock & funds in Europe and another 6 worldwide. I stick to these stock for my sector based trades and usually hold (with swing trades) for over 10 years.

My trading pot is destined for warrants and last year my choice was an undervalued share I know well - ABB. This year the choice was an undervalued BP. The beauty of warrants over CFDs and spread bets is that there is only a time decay ratio to take into account, not interest or stampduty. In the UK they even have covered warrants. Unfortunately there are covered warrants for a limited number of equities and index/commodity trackers.

My other European investments are performing on a par with their respective indices (with the exception of Vestas which has increased phenomenally). The only issue I face this year is what to do when BP hits my target of 650. The trading pot is becoming too large a part of my portfolio so I will probably diversify. A few years ago I made some sound private equity investments in Sugar & Palm Oil operations in Indonesia. These have become very profitable and I considering buying a stake in the same sector in Europe (agricultural production isn't just about food anymore).

The BRICs don't interest me at all - the only exposure I want is prducers who are selling to China or freight companies shipping from.. - at present the Chinese stockmarket is a basket case. That said the growth of the middle classes in China could soon see them outstripping the EU as the worlds second largest domestic consumption market. It will be an interesting future.

Good luck with your investments, and I share your view on the prospects for SCR without Danfeng. I also fail to see why anybody would hold the shares purely based purely on a Tibetan dream. They can't finance it without diluting shareholders to the extreme and any potential suitors realise they only need play a waiting game to pick it up on a "free transfer".

[wolstencroft] 21/5/2007 11:52

money.am is ok its just if you leave off the dot it gets translated - what nonsense ADVFN, or rather a money.am competitor - do and rather badly at that!

[figure6] 21/5/2007 11:41

Nice 250k buy showing as an after hours buy on mmoney.am today (I had to mis-spell monney.am as it comes up as "an advfn competitor" when spelt correctly)ps this means its likely we still have our mystery buyer hoovering up in 250k chunks....off out fishing now,have a good day all.

[wolstencroft] 21/5/2007 09:02

idioterna: If you ae up 60% on your UK portfolio this year then you are simply very lucky, and probably leveraged with warrants or volatile with just a few investments.

I have outperformed all my favourite trusts over the last 5 years (MLW, ML Gold and General, Endeavour Mining Capital) and almost any "index" measure but that is because I was lucky enough to invest in mostly metals for the last five years and did pick a few very big winners which outperformed the losers, of which there are many. There are equally gifted investors out there who did badly over the last few years because they happen to be in an out-of-favour sector or missed out on a few big winners, as ours (mine) will one day be.

Point being 1) this sector like all will go out of favour, even if BRIC causes incredible growth there will be hiccups along the way which will seem like the end of the boom (cf. 1987 "crash" which in retrospect was just a blip 1/3 of the way throug the biggest stock market bubble in history)
leading on to 2) if SCR don't get their finger out and build something they will likely go down as one of the also-rans in the next "crash" and run out of money, dilute shareholders to nothing or be bought at a cheap price to allow the directors to save face and go and try something else i.e 3) at this stage in the cycle its probaly best to stick with producers or near-term producers.

Unless SCR can show that they are one of these they will suffer a large discount to any measure of fair value

(yes, I am selling more weekly)

[tonystringy] 20/5/2007 23:15

lol!

So true simon.

No longer a big enough position for me to worry about........just here for the fun!

Oh, and the recipes!

8-D

[simon54] 18/5/2007 19:52

I'm not worried - I'm hysterical.

backe9, it really is a bit like saying "Boo!" to war veterans. You're unlikely to scare them! For some reason, though, you do amuse me. Could you try to say a bit more, though?

Have a good weekend folks :-)

[nobull] 18/5/2007 18:24

Only fools don't worry about the risks backe9? Commodity price risk, exploration risk, exchange rate risk, dilution risk, liquidity risk, legal risk, ownership risk. We've got many to worry about here. We may even have to add a new one soon: production risk!

[backe9] 18/5/2007 17:55

lots of worried posters on this board by the sounds of it

[figure6] 18/5/2007 16:01

Well done on your investments Idio,you have done better than I have! We differ on SCR but only time will tell who is correct.SCR looks like a share that has been oversold and has bottomed out(and is now on the rebound infact).SCR does appear to have an accumulator and maybe they have some info we dont.I am happy to buy/hold at these levels as I expect we will learn eventually why someone is accumulating.Ya pays ya money ya takes ya risk.Best of luck.

[genius85uk] 18/5/2007 15:18

lol... I thought idioterna should get it for 8751

[figure6] 18/5/2007 15:12

genius85uk.......for posting " and the award for the most pointless post etc" :)

[genius85uk] 18/5/2007 15:11

and the award for the most pointless post goes to....

[figure6] 18/5/2007 15:09

Idio,if you had bought SCR at around 4p in March and sold at over 6p a few weeks later you could have made 50%+

[idioterna] 18/5/2007 14:50

Blimey .... It would take forever to read through this thread unless you work out that 75% of postings come from strow...

Still wallowing in the mire I see... I am considering a new investment but not without a little clarification as to the state of play vis a vis Danfeng. If it's only Zhunumo we are playing for then I might as well wait until 2008.

Meanwhile has anyone worked out just how well the rest of the market has performed recently? Sad to say, but even a heavyweight like MLW is up 25% the past 3 months.

See y'all..

[strow] 18/5/2007 14:33

ok-maybe there is some newsflow dribbling out of china then