Somero Enterprise Share Discussion Threads

[blueball] 07/6/2019 18:50

Stay in cash.

[stepone68] 07/6/2019 13:39

You said yourself it's hard to sell at the top, then you tell us we are nearing the top. How do you know? Why don't you wait until we are past the top, then sell? Why sell on the way up when you don't know where the top is?

[villarich] 07/6/2019 12:54

BTW, I'm seriously considering selling today. I don't buy the weather argument and there are lots of other indicators pointing to us nearing the top of a cycle. I'd rather take my profits than get caught with my pants down

[villarich] 07/6/2019 12:53

Have to agree with EM. I'd avoid cyclicals for long term investing. Primarily because you may find that over the long term you make little to no gain depending on where you buy and sell within the cycle.Stick to defensive / high income and reinvest the divs for long term. Or drop feed into trackers.If you're interested in trading cyclicals, then read anything by Howard Marks. He describes how to make money in cycles. To make money in SOM over a longer time period. You need to buy near the bottom of the cycle, and sell near the top. Easier said than done.

[eezymunny] 07/6/2019 10:40

With respect "investing for the long term" in the most cyclical stocks ain't the smartest strategy. Just MVHO of course after decades of investing.

There's a lot of super naive money in the market right now that hasn't experienced stock markets in a recession.

[stepone68] 07/6/2019 10:38

They are saying revenue of $87m and EBITDA of $28m. That's pretty much what they did in 2017. EPS then was 31c, around 24p. If they do the same this year that's a PE around 11.

[chashley1806] 07/6/2019 10:29

Hi.I'm not looking to trade this share; I'm looking to invest over the long term. If as you say a recession occurred which caused the share price to fall then, provided no other factors have changed (such as a change in management, or new technology coming along to render SOM's intellectual property advantage obsolete), that would be a terrific buying opportunity.As ever, DYOR.

[kiwihope] 07/6/2019 10:26

Hi chashley...

I wouldn't sell either if I had bought at 150p. But would you buy more now? That's the question...

[stepone68] 07/6/2019 10:17

That's not what he said.

[eezymunny] 07/6/2019 09:58

"Whilst I am mindful of the cyclical risks the company faces, I see no reason to sell at the moment"

So you see NO possibility of a recession, which could crush profits at SOM and see the share price crash 80+%

You gorra laugh!

[mfhmfh] 07/6/2019 09:37

top-up/buying opportunity.

FinnCap say 12% reduction in EPS, share price fall over done.

FinnCap target price 420p.

Also, Donald Trump will boost US economy, especially infrastructure/construction spending before next year's presidential election.

DYOR.

All IMHO.

[chashley1806] 07/6/2019 09:20

Yes. It's because of the strong balance sheets that, essentially, I am a long-term hold. I bought in back in 2016 when the share price was 150p. Generally, I have been very pleased with SOM since then, particularly with its good conservative management. For me, this is a solid company to have tucked away unexcitingly in my portfolio. Whilst I am mindful of the cyclical risks the company faces, I see no reason to sell at the moment.

[kiwihope] 07/6/2019 09:06

I have liked the look of this company for a while. Strong balance sheets do that for me! However even after this sharp fall something is holding me back from buying. I think what it is is a feeling I have that the US economy is going to slow down soon. Trump has turbo-boosted it for a couple of years but the effect may wear off soon. SOM is very cyclical and geared heavily to the overall economy. So a good company but I can't help feeling in a year or so the shares might be cheaper...

[interceptor2] 07/6/2019 08:46

SOM have had weather related warnings in the past and have always bounced back, but this time it feels different. In November 2014 and June 2017 they had weather issues in the US but were upbeat in their outlook with other regions performing strongly. This time other regions are not performing strongly only inline with 2018 with the Middle East and Latin America below 2018.

Initially I thought there could be a good buying opportunity again here, but after checking my records I came to a conclusion that this time it feels different.

Apologies to holders here for expressing my view for a stock I am not currently holding, but thought a reminder of previous weather related updates might come in handy and would be worth researching first.

[tiswas] 07/6/2019 08:46

If there ever was going to be a bid then now is the time. As part of a multinational construction equipment manufacturer then surely that would give a boost to sales through cross selling? On a pe of 10/11 by my reckoning, net cash so likely to be earnings enhancing depending on any premium offered?

Concrete flooring is not going away any time soon.

[pugugly] 07/6/2019 08:32

Bottom fish??

[scooper72] 07/6/2019 08:25

Glad I sold most of mine back even before the doc came through. Been waiting for a drop to buy back in. Now need to decide if this is the moment or wait to see if there is more of a drop to come.

[discodave4] 07/6/2019 08:16

Must have been raining in the Middle East and Latin America as well, not to mention the Donald impact.Seems they have more than just issues in the US market IMO.

[villarich] 07/6/2019 08:15

I'm always suspicious when a company blames the weather for poor performance.

[capercaillie] 07/6/2019 08:11

Great call by CEO to sell 800k at £3.40 back in March. Was probably watching the rain falling through his window as he hit the sell button.

[ali47fish] 07/6/2019 08:05

finncap summary
Somero Enterprises*
AGM statement – April showers
The company has released a disappointing trading update, pointing to trading affected by adverse weather in the US, which has delayed customer purchasing in Somero’s usually strong spring trading months. While trading is expected to improve in the remainder of the year, it is unlikely to make up the shortfall in 2019 and signals a 12% EPS downgrade. A lower cash level also results in a cut in dividend forecast. We shave back our price target from 465p to 420p. Weather patterns should be a temporary set-back and do not undermine our positive stance; Somero’s premium dividend yield is also still attractive in our view.

[eezymunny] 07/6/2019 07:44

First of several profit warnings?

Nice company but was loss-making for a fair old time after last recession and share price dropped 80+% from memory.

Sounds more ominous than a bit of rain IMO.

[5oletrader] 16/5/2019 12:46

Coiling Spring??

[lammylover] 05/5/2019 11:58

Tipped yesterday in the Daily Mail - good report, a BUY target 450p. Rich