Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[goldrush] 18/12/2018 13:46

pob69

Great find and much appreciated. Per the Report Zijin take out price would suggest 192% updside....i.e. £1.05 a share......I could live with that !!

[onedayrodders] 18/12/2018 13:30

Had to laugh at the CNBC bubble TV last night as the DOW sank 640 points at one stage ... They described it as a "volatile day"

Of course when the DOW goes up they call it "THE DOW SOARS!!!!"

Another 2+% dropped at the end of the day .. no doubt a little bounce today but thats just a correction IMHO

[alwaysevolving] 18/12/2018 12:53

Yes, ThankYou Pob69.

ODR,

have to agree with you. It’s hard to fathom WTF is going on at present. Newcrest take another chunk taking them to over 15% interest and pay a substantial premium to market and yet the share price doesn’t bat an eyelid?! Some very strange going’s on indeed?

[mknight] 18/12/2018 12:40

Thanks pob69 you are a mine of information.

Keep them coming .

[mknight] 18/12/2018 12:31

ODR

Anything can happen short term but the longer NM can keep us out of the hands of the global players the more ALPALAs he will be able to deliver . As i said this morning we could be 500 times undervalued he will have an idea of what the regional 11 licences hold but until he can get the rigs to prove what we have got then its time he needs.

We all hate the idea of the share price going down but it really does not matter short term unless you need the cash .

[pob69] 18/12/2018 12:29

RedCloud's comment on today's news $SOLG.L SolGold $SOLG $CGP #ECUADOR

Newcrest Takes Down More Shares
Impact: Positive

Newcrest has again increased its interest in SolGold by purchasing 27.87M shares from two third parties. Newcrest now owns 15.3% of SolGold, cementing its position as the largest strategic shareholder ahead of BHP at 11.1% ownership. This update aligns with our thesis that SolGold is in possession of a world-class copper project that is continuing to grow and receive increasing interest from major miners looking to bolster future production.

Highlights:
Newcrest buys a little bit more. Newcrest Mining has agreed to acquire 27.87 M shares at £0.40/sh (C$0.68/sh) bringing its total ownership of SolGold up to 15.33%. This follows its most recent purchase at £0.37/sh (C$0.63/sh), and BHP’s recent purchases at £0.45/sh (C$0.76/sh) and £0.27/sh (C$0.46/sh). These two major miners now collectively control 26.4% of the company and are likely to provide competitive tension should a bidding process for the asset or company occur (Figure 1).

Newcrest bought pre-resource update and now buys pre-PEA. Newcrest’s prior purchase of occurred ahead of the most recent resource update, and now this purchase comes ahead of the pending PEA (due Q1/19). In our view, these continued purchases ahead of major news, speaks to Newcrest’s confidence in the project. We also highlight that Newcrest has proposed and operating block-caves at Wafi-Golpu & Cadia East (Figure 2), implying strong technical knowledge for this type of project.

Likelihood of a premium takeout increasing. We believe that SolGold is a highly prospective target warranting a takeout premium. Historic multiples at 0.75x NAV or US$0.08/lb CuEq (Figure 3) come to mind through comparable transactions including the recent acquisition of Nevsun by Zijin Mining for their Timok project. That transaction was done at 1.25x NAV, implying a value of C$1.84/sh based on our estimates suggesting 192% from the last close of C$0.63/sh.

Valuation:
Newcrest continues to bring attention to Alpala. SolGold trades at 0.43x NAV, a slight premium to peers at 0.35x.

Given the world class nature of the deposit, and the demonstrated interest of multiple majors, we believe we believe a 0.90x NAV multiple applied to our C$1.47 NAVPS estimate would be appropriate implying a value of C$1.32/share. Upcoming catalysts: 1) Ongoing exploration and 2) Maiden PEA (Q1/19).

[onedayrodders] 18/12/2018 12:02

Starting to feel the longer this goes on we can only break through the "slide" to the downside and not the up as we are all expecting ... unless that's the short term aim from the 'dark powers at work here' .. or have I been watching too many episodes of "Murder She Wrote".

seriously though WTF is going on

[mknight] 18/12/2018 11:30

Arcadian

They know what they have at banca y nieve if we got permits and a regional update together that would be a great Christmas presant for me .i agree with you that NM will want to start drilling ByN early January. This should put him in a strong position to finance Alpala.

[arcadian] 18/12/2018 11:17

Mkn

I agree with you that permits and time are vital to any assessments of the true overall value of SOLG assets.

[mknight] 18/12/2018 09:22

Lets see if we get a regional update in the coming days that should give us an idea of how they have progressed since July.

[mam fach] 18/12/2018 08:56

Doubt 60/70p would be acceptable.
Also don't think majority LTH's want to sellout.
But that's IMHO.
Certainly more chat on BB which is good.

[5070481] 18/12/2018 08:47

I think a few investors and funds will have been overexposed in a lot of stocks of late and will be trimming down. I've been selling quite a few of my holding in teh last couple of weeks not because i think the companies have changed but simply the market is looking to struggle. Will be watching them all carefully for a potential santa rally but it doesnt come every year.

[5070481] 18/12/2018 08:46

I actually think if it were put to shareholders they would take 60/70p. I think this groslly undervalues the potential but im aware investors much prefer money in the their pocket

[mknight] 18/12/2018 08:37

I cannot make my mind up if we have stupid P.I,s selling or it is being manipulated in order to get a better price at takeover.

[mknight] 18/12/2018 08:28

Mikalan

It really is not easy to buy large volumes buying 27 million in the open market would probably push the share price over 60p. There will be less sellers each time as value becomes clear.

[pob69] 18/12/2018 08:25

New TV coverage on Vice-Minister's Cascabel site visit (in Spanish) and some new employee names $SOLG.L SolGold $SOLG $CGP #ECUADOR

[mikalan] 18/12/2018 08:22

Surprised (or maybe not!) that the share price hasn't jumped more on this news. Newcrest and BHP will be able to keep on buying on the cheap.

[5070481] 18/12/2018 08:19

Can't see who newcrest bought the shares from. Was it open market?

Always good for the majors to he upping their stakes. Not sure either party will be in a rush though. Suspect they wanted a bit before the PEA and then will see what the market does.

A takeover is clearly likely but suspect that these companies will be like slow moving tankers

[alwaysevolving] 18/12/2018 08:13

Who says the bid would be at this price Jerry? I think that NM put the clause in place so BHP would have to come in with a ‘very’ sensible offer if they wish to be taken seriously.

[jerryspaniel] 18/12/2018 08:08

BHP cannot make a hostile bid unless there is another bid prior. They can only make an agreed bid. At this price what would NM say?

[alwaysevolving] 18/12/2018 07:54

....Or do we think BHP will be happy with their current 11% odd and simply sit back and watch as Newcrest potentially keep chipping away and upping their stake for the next couple of years?

Not really in BHPs nature that is it?

[goldrush] 18/12/2018 07:52

Was the news announced re Newcrest in Canada yesterday evening before being announced this morning by RNS in London. ?

The game is getting interesting again. Well done Newcrest !!

[alwaysevolving] 18/12/2018 07:37

Jerry,

because the two year clause stops them (BHP) from buying in over 13% (or there about) however it specifically states that they ARE permitted to make a full offer WITHIN that two year time frame.

What isn’t 100% clear to me is If that offer pertains to the entire company or just Alpala?

Newcrest have not had the same restriction placed on them as BHP have so Newcrest can seemingly purchase as many shares as they wish which makes this little stand off all the more interesting.

One has to ask ones self. What would you do under these circumstances if you were BHP?

[mknight] 18/12/2018 07:12

So confirmation that Newcrest now owns 15.23 percent and rising .BHP and Newcrest holdings now total nearly a third of the company . Buy as many as you can at whatever price you can get them for because whatever that price is it is going to be cheap.