Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[mirabeau] 25/11/2018 18:29

Decks being cleared prior to a merger or possible takeover?

[mirabeau] 25/11/2018 17:54

Newcrest, very interesting stuff

Today 17:53

Street Talk -Nov 26 2018 at 12:15 AM

Newcrest Mining: gold plated mega deal predator or prey?

by Sarah Thompson Anthony Macdonald

There is plenty of takeover glitter about Australia's $16.5 billion Newcrest Mining – and the question now is whether it is indeed gold.

Street Talk understands the miner's operatives have been busily travelling back and forth between their Melbourne base and the home of its biggest listed peers, North America, in recent months, considering the merits of various options including leading industry consolidation.

The most logical is a scrip-based merger, which could add Newcrest's strong presence in Australia and the Pacific, with a big offshore miner's footprint in other parts of the world.

And in terms of the most likely dance partner, fingers are pointing at Vancouver-based giant Goldcorp, which has mines in Canada and Central and South America. If geographical diversification is the goal, then it is hard to find a neater fit.

Putting the two together would create a company with about $6.5 billion revenue and $3 billion earnings in the 2020 financial year, pre synergies, leaping it ahead of the likes of heavyweights Newmont and Barrick Gold. It would be a significant step for what is a highly fragmented industry globally, and a deal of international significance.

The lingering question for Newcrest shareholders, though, is whether the company is predator or prey. Merger of equal type deals are all well and good in theory, but history shows there is a better chance of a deal completing if one company gets out its chequebook. A control premium makes all the "soft" issues – such as which of the two parties gets the chairman and CEO's seats – pretty quickly go away.

Sources reckon Newcrest would prefer to take the merger of equals approach, at least initially. But if push comes to shove, one wonders whether the board, chaired for now by Peter Hay, has the stomach to make a big move.

If Goldcorp is the desired merger party, then the ball looks to have moved firmly into Newcrest's court. While both companies' shares are heavily linked to the gold price, Goldcorp has been punished recently for a soft quarterly operating result, while Newcrest has held up reasonably in the recent market rout.

The other thing Newcrest would have to keep an eye on is the political environment, both in Australia and offshore. It is no secret Australia's politicians have an eye on next year's election and are risk-averse to certain types of deals, as seen at APA Group in recent weeks, while Australian miners have been spurned in Canada in the past.

end

[jerryspaniel] 25/11/2018 13:04

Anyone else going to Mines & Money tomorrow?

[zeusfurla] 24/11/2018 17:00

mknight I think that Nick is 63 so is doing well to look in his 50s! Given the drilling not included in MRE2 it is possible to gain 10-20% additional tonnage just from start November to early 2019. I'd expect some rigs to start moving to other targets in Q1 next year although I haven't seen this stated anywhere. It's in Nick's interest to get some assays from other priority sites and make the results public in H1 next year I'd say. He is not hanging about.

[mknight] 24/11/2018 15:24

Anybody on the BB know if what i have stated is true. I base it on his comments that they have 20 percent left. With the rigs they have now i am giessing 3 months . This is positive as news of another find can only push the price up further. It will also imho bring a sale that much closer with loads of money to pish the other projects forward. After all he is not getting any younger must be well into his 50,s .

[lefrene] 24/11/2018 14:50

mknight, the only thing I do know is that Nick Mather will be going flat out to fully prove up Alpala to jorc standard. I'm sure he will make the most efficient use of the rigs he has available, whatever time it takes.

[mam fach] 24/11/2018 13:55

To the non believers this is like a fairy story.

[mknight] 24/11/2018 13:03

Lefrene. With only 20 percent left to drill do you think the rigs can move on to the next exploration in 3 months .

[onedayrodders] 23/11/2018 18:49

Indeed Lefrene :o)

I am the Mr Bean of charting calls

[mknight] 23/11/2018 18:27

I am adding at these prices .its now nearly 20 percent off the 45p paid by BHP .They have publicly informed everyone that they want to make a purchase .I would think we are top of their hit list . Share options at 60p make me think that it wont be long . Add to NM saying that there is no reason why the other 11 projects should not be as good as we have might mean he sells to BHP for 80 to 100 pays a special divi of 60p and keeps the rest to advance the other projects .

Seem like a winwin to me

Cant see much downside.

[onedb1] 23/11/2018 15:52

Sure has resistance at 39.4 ish . Once taken out we have a nice ride up again . Alpala latest article quotes it as being up there with world's best ! So yes current price diverges from this statement . Worlds best and 37p is not correct IMO

[mknight] 23/11/2018 14:06

Seems very undervalued,I wonder why there is an iceberg at 39 . Someone trying to keep it down .

[lefrene] 23/11/2018 12:30

ODR, I'm not at all fooled, this is an attempt at deliberate reverse psychology to atone for that "pennant" remark, which was the cause of the last fall back in price! :¬)

[onedayrodders] 23/11/2018 12:25

clear downtrend since mid Oct still in place

[mam fach] 23/11/2018 11:50

Since I have been a holder of only Solg for over 10 years I do not know
about NM's track record of disposal of assets.
Always been happy with his straight forward approach.
Delivers on his promises.

[alwaysevolving] 23/11/2018 11:06

With all the less than subtle hints that have been dropped in recent interviews and presentations many of which posted here, NM might as well be poking BHP with a sharp stick and saying, “come on, make me a sensible offer for the job lot. You know that’s what we both ultimately want”!

[arcadian] 23/11/2018 10:25

From the above


It`s good to hear that he knows what it`s worth (many $billions) and is willing to wait. Me too.

[5070481] 23/11/2018 09:31

Presumably BHP have bought in though on teh knowledge that there are other potential sites to go exploring. I dont think there is any doubt that teh area is going to be a monster. It just comes down to how long it takes and how easy funding is to achieve

[mam fach] 23/11/2018 09:26

Nothing short of a done deal is going to shift share price.
What a pity.
Still think best option would be sell off Alpala
and carry on exploring other districts of Cascabel.
Think price should be double current one .
But what do I know.

[zeusfurla] 23/11/2018 07:57

Mirabeau Thanks for good article - '11 more...?' I think Nick is back in full-on sales pitch mode as he was a couple of months ago and in advance of next weeks mines and money - he's looking for a conversation or 2 next week and maybe even a bid before Xmas? 11x Alpalas is not realistic but who in the industry doesn't know about SOLG now given all the PR? The PR is there even if the share price remains straitjacketed for now. After all any prospective bidder wouldn't be buying up shares in the market - they'd want the share price to stay low. I'm almost expecting him to turn up at mines and money next week with a truckload of free samples to give away....