Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[pob69] 08/5/2020 08:40

Interesting to see Newcrest going back to the markets for further funding. Potential relevence to $SOLG $SOLG.L $CGP #cascabel #ecuador?

One week after raising $1 billion equity in an institutional placement Newcrest Mining was in the US bond markets collecting a further $US1.15 billion. Funds raised in the equity deal were in part to help settle a $US460 million acquisition of financial instruments linked to Ecuador's Fruta Del Norte mine, as well as other growth projects.

[pob69] 08/5/2020 08:31

Very informative summary of the background to and the Minister's comments during the webinar earlier in the week to inform explorers/developers in the country $SOLG $SOLG.L $CGP #cascabel #ecuador $ARU.

The reality for the country:
"...The coronavirus found Ecuador in a very weakened financial situation due to the debt carried by the previous Government, and the direct expenses of the pandemic and the almost complete economic paralysis since March 16 (Ecuador will lose around 6.3% of GDP, according to the IMF) have led the country to ask for more credit to overcome what would otherwise be bankrupt.

Mining is therefore conceived as a quick way of injecting liquidity through the advance payment of exploitation rights, although for indigenous communities it is too high a price: environmental and social."

[greenelf] 08/5/2020 06:33

Centamin only gets about half of annual profit of their mine, rest goes to Egyptian government. Affects value.

[phattrader1] 08/5/2020 02:47

Recent takeover bids of Gold miners in the world:

1) Canada’s Endeavour Mining Corp made a $1.9 billion all-stock takeover proposal for Africa-focused Centamin Plc. This eventually didn’t get accepted by Centamin. They have 15.7m ounces of measured and indicated gold – SOLG have 23m + copper + silver. On a like for like basis, SOLG should be worth c.%5-6bn or £2/share.

2) China’s Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd struck a deal to buy Continental Gold Inc for $1.3 billion in cash. Continental's main project was Buritica - measured resources of 5.67m ounces gold and 10m ounces silver, but 3.71m converted to actual reserves.
◾The after-tax net present value at a 5% discount (“NPV5“) amounts to $0.86 billion;
◾The after-tax Internal Rate of Return (“IRR”) of 31.2%; and
◾Capital payback of 2.3 years;
Not too dissimilar to SOLG's metrics but we have 4 times the gold and at the same discount rate, 7-8 times the NPV.
Therefore if valued the same (just for comparison), then after BFS we will be worth $1.3bn x 5 = $6.5bn * 85% / 1.24 exchange rate = £4.45bn = £2.11/share for Alpala alone.
3) Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. bid C$4.3 billion for Detour Gold – they had 15.6m ounces of gold in production phase, 80% of what we have at just Alpala, or 25% of what Ingo told me we have across our sites in Ecuador. On a like for like basis, around £2.50 to £3 (very rough estimate).


Now I could carry on making comparisons but we are at a different stage of our lives at SOLG (pre-prod) and funding stage, but if we diluted to 3bn shares and went into production we really could make it big with the amount of mines we could bring to production. This is why the offtake agreement is the single most important factor to derail the rest of Ecuador.

There is no way in hell BHP will allow that to happen and for us to become a major. I am more confident than ever of a takeover in 2020 of more than £1 a share. As it stands, once we get funding approved we should be at 60p-70p, then permits and PFS to 80p and takeover at £1.50 after the bidding war that is on its way.

Or a short term robbery at 75p a share. But NM won’t allow that to happen.

[fsawatcher] 07/5/2020 22:00

fork in ell

gold blowing bubbles at mo

if it go to 2000oz, does solg become millaonare stock?

forkin shud be

[greenelf] 07/5/2020 17:44

Gold on the move.. spot $1714All good here. Try again next week :)

[lowtrawler] 07/5/2020 16:46

Have a good weekend. Hopefully I'll be less grumpy next week. Not sure about your fantasy miner guess, if anything like correct you should play the lottery this weekend.

[alphapig] 07/5/2020 16:19

Talk about manipulation, letting someone in? Don't mind us.

[mknight] 07/5/2020 15:59

Here come the buyers ..i wonder why ?

[rougepierre] 07/5/2020 15:54

Nouriel Roubini on Bloomberg right now...soundbites...

"U shared recovery not V shaped...

"Corporate bond yields at 400bp above Treasuries vs 600/700 in 2008 and equities on 23 times earnings doesn't make any sense...

"This is delusional...

"The policy mix is biased towards Wall Street, not Main Street...this is false...

"Corporate balance sheets will be rebuilt at the expense of millions of workers and millions of small businesses...the big are going to get bigger and the small will get wiped out...

"if you look at 2008, the big corporations and the banks were bailed out and the result was asset inflation...this time they're even bailing out the high yield bond funds...

MY CONCLUSION: Rapidly rising inflation 2021 onwards which impoverishes the real economy at a time when taxes will have to be raised to start to pay back the cost...asset prices booming, mainly property and commodities (i.e. gold/silver/copper).

Historically low interest rates and rising inflation means rising real negative interest rates which is great for something with no intrinsic earnings, i.e. gold...silver will rise on the back of it as it is restored as a fallback precious metal at a time when industrial demand will be growing because of hitech industrial needs...

AIMHO as usual...

[phattrader1] 07/5/2020 15:53

You just wouldn’t wanna be out of this over the weekend!

Next week will be good as various news may be released regarding funding, offtake bids, possible takeover bids.
All with improving gold and copper, USD and EUR collapsing, NM’s 5 year anniversary at SOLG, and Depression looming. All indicates to a good long term for SOLG.

[rougepierre] 07/5/2020 15:34

Buy gold and silver...



More and more serious commentators are talking about inevitable inflation...

The FED is driving a supertanker and when the economic collapse really begins to unwind it will not be possible to unwind the massive liquidity injection on a sixpence...indeed as after 2008, the markets won't let them...QE never got unwound...

Be under no illusions, while Bonds were a primary focus, the Fed pumped the liquidity in because equity liquidity was grinding to a halt with no buyers as people slashed their portfolios at any price to pay their margin calls...

Reminiscent of the 1929 Wall Street Crash when exactly the same thing happened...

However, after 1929n we entered one of the longest global recessions in history...

This time we will get stagflation big time...great for commodity prices (weakening dollar...rising inflation...) especially gold, followed by silver and then copper (the 'new gold')...

I remember in early 2009 the former head of Egyptian banking asking me "How did this happen?" My answer without thinking was "Greed and stupidity." "What is the solution?" he asked..."Print money" I said. "But history shows us that printing money can lead to hyperinflation."

While that didn't happen after 2008, the volume of additional liquidity has expanded many times more in the last couple of months. In 2008 it was to save the major US banks...this time they are trying to save the economy and now that they've rationalised the argument and justifying adding limitless help to the economy until this thing is through, it will be very difficult to turn off the tap...eventually that money will turn into inflation as the economy finally recovers, but...

We will have a very much smaller global economy...many of the jobs lost will never come back as corporates realise they don't need/can't afford so many people...and as the move towards AI/Automation/Robotics etc accelerates, up to 5 million jobs could be lost in the UK alone...and they will be mainly in services because we are no longer a manufacturing economy...

Nouriel Robin, my most revered economist is envisaging a depression...

So portfolio strategy and selection will be incredibly important...which is why I'm sticking with Gold/Silver/Copper (plus titanium - JAY) and a few defensives, especially SSE, NG. and BT (which I've bought back into at 104 today...)

Sorry to sound gloomy, but SOLG is very well placed for the latter reasons, but also because it is not actually mining/producing at the moment and therefore there are no earnings to be slashed...

AIMHO as usual and all constructive/objective comments welcome...

[mknight] 07/5/2020 15:17

31k at 26.37 says it all .

[mknight] 07/5/2020 15:01

Rougepierre

Maybe bold but who gives 2.7 billion without some assurance from the government .

All the government have got todo is ok the mine .

II permiting III fiscal from march the 11th .

We have the money 👍

I would expect an RNS soon stating the above or a leak over the weekend .imho

NM is under pressure to produce another tier 1 before BHP snaps us up .He needs to get drilling fast .

[rougepierre] 07/5/2020 14:57

Thats a bold call mk... now would not seem to be the best time to go for the lot unless it is largely debt funded, with bond rates at their lowest ever and the US Treasury issuing 20 year notes for the first time ever...seems like a sweet spot on the yield curve...

However, as SOLG has appointed Citi for Bid Defence, NM may believe he has to announce a full funding package (conditional of course, like the SXX one was), to either ward off bidders or jack the exit price...

We won't have long to wait and find out...

However, it was clear from the webinar that this fund raise is not only to take us through to FFS and final financing, but also to provide enough drill funds to start proving up some of the other prospects, most notably Rio Amarillo and Blanca...to add in to the mix before the October BHP moratorium is released...

AIMHO as usual...

[mknight] 07/5/2020 14:47

I am sure they have the money . But need a signature for a permit before they can use it . Imho
Not talking about 150million either .

They are going for the lot imho .

If you look at the Rns it mentioned permits ..march the 11th i believe

[lowtrawler] 07/5/2020 14:17

We have the money could be considered a market sensitive statement requiring an RNS. Actually having the agreed funding certainly is. The fact we haven't had an RNS means NM spoke prematurely at best.

[rougepierre] 07/5/2020 13:58

On 11 March, Ecuador had 17 Coronavirus cases...it now has 29,420...

From 21 Feb to 24 March, markets tanked at the fastest rate in history...in just 2 weeks the S&P fell 27% from 9 to 24 March...

On 24 March Ecuador shut things down...

"as a result of the state policy and the reaction from many communities within its areas of operations to the potential for transfer of COVID-19, the Company is complying with government preventative measures and has reduced operations throughout Ecuador.

Where possible, the Company's geologists, administration, technical and financial teams are working from home and will continue to progress SolGold's projects using the extensive database. The Alpala prefeasibility study is continuing externally, using the available information which has already been substantially gathered from site", he said."

Have you ever run a major business ND? No.

Have you ever been GFD of an AIM company? No.

I have done both, been a qualified Stockbroker for a major London firm and managed £4.5 Billion of funds...

So you try and run even a $400 million mining company in such circumstances...

I think Nick and his Board are doing a stellar job in the worst recession in history, working 14,000km from home...

Irrespective of coronavirus, you sit on your posterior and post unhelpful comments about a stock that you don't even own...how sad does it get...?

[lowtrawler] 07/5/2020 13:41

ND, you called it right, well done. Now don't crow about it.They didn't actually say on March 11 that they were getting the finance deal done in 8 weeks. They said that they were having discussions which, if they resulted in a heads of agreement, would then take a further 8 weeks to finalise from that point. In other words, no commitment was given on timeline or delivery, just a broad statement that they were talking to people about longer term financing. These sorts of discussion would not have precluded NM from making the purchases proposed in the same March 11 announcement.We still don't know what information NM hold which prevents him from trading.The offtake financing announcement was much more formal. Completion of a formal tendering arrangement etc. Proposal to get the 150m funding from this process. All to be finalised by this week. Failure to deliver on this is the only thing I currently care about. They imposed their own deadline and have failed to deliver. Nobody would have cared if they'd said it would be finalised over the coming weeks. It would have given them breathing space. No, they committed to this week.

[mknight] 07/5/2020 13:28

We have the money ...NM 6/5/2020 .

Another ..thumbs up from the minister of mining .👍👍👍👍
28077;👍€077;

Another webinar today from the vice minister👍

[nas_daq] 07/5/2020 12:53

Lol if they were in discussions about financing on March 11th and announced if they go well they expect to reach agreement within 8 weeks he was never going to be able to buy shares but lots of posters on here quoted when NM buys the share price will shoot up, it seems to me posters like you see what you want to see then twist the story to suit.The only fact that is important is they missed they own deadline and myself, and one other poster, DD expected that because we can see NM is pumping the price to get a placing away because they can't secure funding in this environment.I don't need to listed to the webinar because you keep on posting the best PR bits to highlight your bullish stance.....Now it's give them the weekend and see what happens Monday, next week it will be it's almost done and meanwhile the share price which has risen on all the hot air spouted on boards like this will deflate.............Mknight was posting 40p this week but none of you pulled him up on that because it suits all your ramping....those are the facts sorry if it doesn't suit your agenda......