Smurfit Kappa Share Discussion Threads

[keelingr] 03/2/2010 14:35

I take it you're shorting this one considering the level of confidence you seem to have about its demise!!

[lbo] 03/2/2010 14:32

You forgot Goodbody!

But lets not mention the ISTC debacle and Taggart Holdings! LOL

[keelingr] 03/2/2010 14:30

You've got a bit of dirt on everyone - seems you're about the only clean investment advisor around!!!

[lbo] 03/2/2010 14:17

AIB, Davy and Bloxham executives face 'mini bank inquiry'

[lbo] 03/2/2010 14:17

LOADS! ROFLMAO

Bloxham partners sued for €10m over investment advice

[keelingr] 03/2/2010 13:56

Any dirt on Bloxham LBO ?!! LOL

[lbo] 03/2/2010 13:52

Oh Deary me MR NCB! Everything all these Irish brokers push is cursed IMHO (And guess who owns 25% of NCB? The man from Cavan he say YES)

Carluccio's closes with loss of 60 jobs







NCB Wealth Management recently completed a successful niche fundraising for the creation of a quality new restaurant chain, Carluccio's Ireland Ltd.

[lbo] 03/2/2010 11:06

Manchester United bond issue falls flat



Manchester United may be in contention for another Premier League title, but its success on the pitch has worked little magic in the City. The club's first bond issue, launched barely two weeks ago, has become one of the market's worst performers this year.

While the club has secured the £500m ($798m) funding that it needs to refinance its bank debt, the paper losses suffered by investors could affect its ability to return to bond markets.

The bid price of United's £250m of sterling-denominated bonds has dipped to 93% of face value

[lbo] 03/2/2010 11:01

Ah yes forward looking! Not many saw what was coming over the last 18 months yet now we are expected to believe they know whats coming now! LOL

What will happen to " a geared play on European recovery" if the recovery is a false short term stimulus fueled sugar rush! :0



NOURIEL ROUBINI, the New York University professor who anticipated the financial crisis, says the outlook for growth remains "very dismal". The White House economic adviser, Lawrence Summers, says the economy is still mired in a "human recession".

"It's going to feel like a recession, even if technically we're not going to be in a recession," he said.

Also speaking in Davos, Mr Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, said the statistical recovery would not mask a "human recession".

More than half that growth owed to replenishing depleted inventories and relied on monetary and fiscal stimulus, he said. As these forces ebb, the rate will slow to 1.5 per cent in the second half of this year.

[keelingr] 03/2/2010 10:18

Perhaps a little frothy for '09/'10 but the market is a forward looking creature...EBITDA to exceed EUR1bn by end FY 2011 imo...



Smurfit remains a geared play on European recovery, with an
attractive and faster-growing Latin American business accounting for circa 20% of earnings. We forecast EBITDA for 2009 of €735m, rising to €840m in 2010. Recovery of the circa 12% volume loss seen over the past 2 years should see a further sharp improvement in 2011, potentially towards past peak levels of €1.05bn. Next week's results should provide an update on 2010 prospects and is likely to highlight the efficiencies and cost savings achieved during this downturn. This can lead prospective earnings in the current cycle to surpass past peak levels. Taking a midpoint of trough earnings in the current cycle and applying a multiple of 6-7x EBITDA generates anequity value of €7.80-11.90 per share, a broad range indicative of the leverage in the equity. This is after accounting for the Group's circa €3bn in net debt and pension deficit of €0.6bn. Smurfit Kappa's financial and operational leverage leads us to see
continued material upside in the equity, provided the current positive pricing
environment is sustained. We maintain our BUY rating with an increased price target of €9.80 per share.

[lbo] 02/2/2010 20:24

"EBITDA of c. €1bn per annum - the debt will be reduced in no time!"

Your circa seems a bit frothy? (and these figures are still based on no double dip appearing). And the only bowing will be shareholders to debtholders if the recovery is short lived with about 60pc of Smurfit Kappa's products delivered to the consumer sector!

[lbo] 02/2/2010 20:19

LOL

I wonder how much that cost them!

Davy gets out the chequebook

[keelingr] 02/2/2010 15:44

This is just for you LBO - I think you'll enjoy it!!



"Davy Research wins Europe award"

[keelingr] 02/2/2010 12:25

When they resume dividends, I think you will have to bow humbly at the altar of Smurfs! EBITDA of c. €1bn per annum - the debt will be reduced in no time!

[lbo] 02/2/2010 11:52

LOL

What about the fools who bought at €19, 18, 17 , 16, 15, 14 ,13 ,12 ,11! :0

As I said everybody says they bought lower but nobody admits they bought higher up!

Lets make another deal when the debt is reduced and McGann is gone then I will admit its maybe worth an investment! Until then the short term share price rally is just a barometer of risk appetite by speculators in an enviornment of massive QE and heavy pushing by Irish brokers. Meanwhile the debt, long term shareholder returns and McGanns track record are real!

Anglo approved loans without valuations

[keelingr] 02/2/2010 11:28

LBO - I couldn't care less about the fools who bought at €20. Let's make a deal eh? When this hits €10, you'll capitulate and admit you called it wrong!

[keelingr] 01/2/2010 16:05

Having to resort to re-hashed news LBO? Getting close to €7 as Dr. Doom keeps preaching!

[lbo] 01/2/2010 16:05

Would not inspire confidence!

[lbo] 31/1/2010 21:18

Don't believe recovery hype





Investors are wary of the future, as reflected in concerns about the strength of the US economy. Most economists expect the economy to slow from its fourth-quarter surge, which was the fastest pace it has recorded in more than six years.

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, tagged as "Dr Doom", told Bloomberg that the latest growth numbers were "dismal and poor".

Roubini said more than half of the expansion was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, growth would slow to just 1.5% in the second half of 2010, he said.

That would be a rude awakening for corporate profits and stock valuations.

[lbo] 31/1/2010 21:14

Goldmansucks??

Cheerleader of spin calls for Irish good news agenda





Has Goldman Sachs, beset with a public image problem, turned global economic cheerleader by way of compensation?

[lbo] 31/1/2010 21:13

LOL

pumpy dumpty sat on a wall!



Pat McCann's Maldron hotel group posted a loss of €1.5m in its first full year of trading in 2008.

According to recently filed accounts, Maldron said it had a difficult 2009 and it was uncertain about the outlook for 2010 because of the fall-off in the number of tourists. Revenue in 2008 totalled just under €38m.

McCann, the former boss of Jurys Doyle, bought the Comfort and Quality Inn hotels from developer Paddy Kelly in 2007



Maldron Hotels Write-down: 95 per cent (by Davy Stockbrokers)

As part of an aggressive revaluation of its investment property portfolio, Davy Stockbrokers last year wrote down its clients' stake in the former Quality Hotel chain by 95 per cent.

Davy clients participated alongside TVC Holdings in the €41.5 million buyout of the former Quality Hotels in 2007, taking a 21.5 per cent stake in the business.

The chain of 11 hotels has since been rebranded as the Maldron hotels.

At the time of the deal, Davy told its clients that the business would be worth €100 million by the end of 2012.

[keelingr] 29/1/2010 09:37

Let's have a bit of international opinion then. How about Deutsche Bank?

Deutsche Bank upbeat on European packaging sector
Jan 20, 2010 (M2 EQUITYBITES via COMTEX) --

Company: Deutsche Bank AG (DB)

20 January 2010 - Deutsche Bank prefers packaging companies, especially those with exposure to corrugated cardboard, to paper makers, according to an analysis of the European paper and packaging sector, published on Tuesday.

The broker's top pick in the sector is Irish Smurfit Kappa (ISE: SKG) due to the company's exposure to corrugated cardboard.

Deutsche Bank also maintained its "buy" rating on Swedish Svenska Cellulosa AB (STO: SCA B), or SCA, with a share price target of SEK115.

However, Finnish UPM-Kymmene (HEL: UPM1V), M-real (HEL: MRLAV) and Stora Enso (HEL: STERV), as well as Swedish Holmen (STO: HOLM B) and Norwegian Norske Skog (OSL: NSG) got their "sell" ratings reaffirmed.

"Only considerable capacity curtailments and consolidation in the sector can change our view on paper makers but this is not very likely to happen," Deutsche Bank said.

The financial results of packaging companies are expected to recover in 2010, while the development of paper makers will be hampered by overcapacity, price pressure and structural decline in paper demand.

The prices of testliner and kraftliner are expected to grow by 15% and 10%, respectively, and demand is seen to increase by 4% in 2010.

At the same time, Deutsche Bank forecast that newsprint prices in Europe will fall by 15% this year, versus the previous estimate for an annual decline of 10%.

Today, the B-series shares in SCA and Holmen opened at SEK103.10 and SEK179.50, respectively, on the OMX Nordic Exchange in Stockholm. In Helsinki, the stock in UPM opened at EUR8.17, the R-series share in Stora Enso opened at EUR4.60, and the A-series share in M-real -- at EUR2.22.

Norske Skog's share opened at NOK9.18 on the Oslo Stock Exchange.