Smurfit Kappa Share Discussion Threads

[soundbuy] 02/11/2016 09:43

Agreed - hopefully a re-rating of sorts going fwd (barring obvious macro blah blah)

[miti 1000] 02/11/2016 08:08

yep great results

[ygor706] 02/11/2016 07:54

I have consensus earnings growth from brokers showing minus 11% for the whole of this year which is clearly wrong by some margin. These figures look good to me and every good year of cash flow strengthens the balance sheet. Bit of a drab week on the markets in front of the US election but SKI should progress from here.

[moorsie2] 02/11/2016 07:29

Great results - on for record highest ever ebitda! And net debt down to 2.4 times ebitda

This has got to be rerated now..

[moorsie2] 01/11/2016 16:46

looks like the market is fearing the worst from the results die tomorrow...

any positive numbers should see a good upwards movement

[soundbuy] 27/9/2016 16:47

A right mauling today - fair vols too.........zzzzzzzzzz

[ygor706] 27/9/2016 15:38

I think that Blackrock have been dumping stock although not sure why. Big dollar earner here reporting in euros. Cant be all bad!

[soundbuy] 27/9/2016 09:25

Jefferies International downgrade to Hold
TP from 2,350.00 to 1,915.00

[miti 1000] 27/9/2016 09:00

surprising weakness recently....any reason ?

[soundbuy] 06/9/2016 12:01

H/T FT AV

Cash is King: Upgrade to Buy We think investors now need to recognise SKG’s strong free cash generation and the potential equity value release this could afford even in bearish scenarios – with a sector-leading FCF yield, we upgrade the shares to Buy. Self-help investments have been made in recent years and we see capex falling materially in 2017E which could result in a 30% FCF CAGR over 2016-18E. Our revised 12m DCF-derived PO represents c17% potential upside, with the de-gearing opportunity likely driving further upside out to 2018E.


Solid cash flow. Capex falling = cash flow getting better yet Cash flow has been strong historically and while a new capex programme is to be
established in ‘17E, management has indicated capex will fall to 100% of depreciation in
17E. Investors are thus likely to see a meaningful uplift in FCF (c45% y/y in 17E, on our
estimates). Our scenario analysis suggests that just by virtue of strong cash generation,
even if Smurfit were to see no earnings growth and merely hold its EV/EBITDA multiple,
a valuation of EUR29.93 by 18E could be possible – as net debt shrinks and the equity
portion of SKG’s EV expands.

BE

OCC climbing; containerboard improving. Pricing looks good We are increasingly seeing signs of optimism in recycled containerboard markets. Key
players are announcing price increases and OCC prices are rising strongly. SKG is leading
the pack – recently announcing a €40/ton testliner increase in Europe effective 12th
September. We estimate that the annualized impact if successful would be a c10% uplift
to EBITDA. We see a good chance of success given the cost-push from OCC Prices
which have been on a sharply rising trend in recent weeks and are currently +17% YTD.


Best in class FCF yield. Screens well on range of metrics In our view the shares currently offer amongst the most attractive FCF yield in the
sector at c10.1% over 2016-19E – and arguably the best FCF yield value when
considering the yield in the context of downside risks and future growth prospects (both
areas in which it arguably scores more highly than the few peers with higher FCF yields).

[soundbuy] 06/9/2016 11:52

Merrill upgrade to Buy this am.

See below.

[moorsie2] 06/9/2016 08:36

this is still only 24 Euros when it hit over 27.5 Euros within the last 12-18 months so still headroom here


US markets open today after Labour Day yesterday - so I expect a strong afternoon on the back of GS note

[moorsie2] 06/9/2016 08:14

Breaking through 20stg for the first time since London listing..

[moorsie2] 02/9/2016 15:44

ok - fair enough....

next time :)

The rise seems to be the GS Conviction Buy then alright - especially US Value investors who follow Goldman Sachs and see value in sterling based stocks..

[montyhedge] 02/9/2016 15:37

Spoke to Stock Exchange, Micro Focus replacing Arm, sorry boys.

[soundbuy] 02/9/2016 15:11

Broker Rec

Goldman Sachs (GS) separates "buys" from "conviction buys" to emphasize just how much they believe in their stock pick, the only institution to do so I believe.

Personally don't go much on what GS say, fair bit of analysis out there into their previous Conviction Buys and outcomes....just google

Scroll through

[moorsie2] 02/9/2016 14:33

SoundBuy - What is GS Conviction??

[soundbuy] 02/9/2016 14:30

GS Conviction Buy rating reiterated this am.

[moorsie2] 02/9/2016 14:19

ARM are delisted on Tue 6th Sept at 8am!

So SKG could be in FTSE by Tuesday! Could explain the stronger run today..

[moorsie2] 02/9/2016 14:00

Just missed out on the automatic place this 1st Sept. But the company seems to be in prime spot on the reserve list - so when ARM disappears due to Softbank's acquisition in the coming weeks then it looks like SKG is in the top 100

[montyhedge] 31/8/2016 08:04

Sorry boys looks like Micro Focus going to pip you to enter the FTSE 100.

[typo56] 26/8/2016 21:17

It looks like SKG is being pumped up to replaced ARM in the FTSE 100. At the moment POLY would probably make it but it's a tight call and the decision is based on the market cap at close this coming Wednesday.

[moorsie2] 26/8/2016 17:23

Only took 1 day to break above 19


Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (LON:SKG)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by research analysts at Deutsche Bank AG in a report released on Friday. They currently have a GBX 2,160 ($28.38) price objective on the stock. Deutsche Bank AG’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 14.77% from the company’s current price.
Shares of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc (LON:SKG) opened at 1919.00 on Friday. Smurfit Kappa Group Plc has a one year low of GBX 1,503.93 and a one year high of GBX 2,731.00. The company’s 50-day moving average price is GBX 1,772.59 and its 200 day moving average price is GBX 1,831.87. The stock’s market capitalization is GBX 4.49 billion.


Separately, Jefferies Group reiterated a “buy” rating and set a GBX 2,430 ($31.93) target price on shares of Smurfit Kappa Group Plc in a research report on Wednesday, July 20th.