Smiths News Share Discussion Threads

[norbert colon] 17/2/2023 12:57

On their LinkedIn feed - worth following

[newshound1] 17/2/2023 12:19

I hadn’t seen the pallet but, where did you see that ?

[norbert colon] 17/2/2023 11:38

I see SNWS are now offering long or short term pallet storage as an adjacent offering

[catabrit] 16/2/2023 12:49

You’re never going to buy a business with structural ‘tailwindsR17; for 3-4x FCF. Actually, that’s not entirely correct as lots of commodity businesses have traded for this over the years. I guess the point I’m making is that the structural headwinds are baked into the share price The variant perception, if there is one, relates to the arbitrage between perception vs reality i.e. it takes ten years to die, not five. Meanwhile you have a big fat moat gushing cash flow as nobody is going to challenge the oligopoly. The biggest danger in these situations is management doing stupid things with the FCF but that’s somewhat negated here as the CEO is aware of past failings. He will look to fire a few bullets that leverage the core strength of the business (just in time logistics) but my hunch is that once the debt has been cleared (imminently), he will be distributing a tonne of that c/f via special dividends and buybacks.

Western Union is a great example of a core biz in terminal decline that actually has held up pretty well and that was off a much higher valuation multiple. If you start getting valued at 10x FCF, then Ok - you probably start selling or re-considering.

[stevensupertrader] 13/2/2023 17:24

There is a short moment today that SNWS was trying to push up but at the close it fell back - therefore I still convinced that SNWs will fall this week under 45p

[profdoc] 13/2/2023 11:31

Stevensha, may I suggest take a look at the operating profits and cash flow from the Newspaper/magazine business only over the last ten years if want reassurance on the business they have today (ignore the losses on other business adventures). It'll take a bit of work digging in the notes to the accounts - but that's investing for you! Handing it to you won't convince you.

[hotdawg] 11/2/2023 12:34

If you're in for the long haul maybe find out when next contracts are up for renewal and look to buy for lowest price just before then maybe ?

[stevensupertrader] 11/2/2023 11:00

Very likely next week SNWS will drop back looking at the chart graph.

[stevesham] 10/2/2023 15:57

Thanks Laughton, just taken a look, thumbs up from Paul Scott, but his comment structural decline of the core business makes me nervous

I am not a trader and prefer long term buy and hold income shares, maybe I will take a small opening position and wait to see what their half year looks like on 2nd May

Cheers

[laughton] 10/2/2023 15:50

If you're on Stockopedia have a look back at discussions including SCVR write up on Jan 24.

There's always a reason why shares appear cheap - for me it's a throwback to when they stupidly bought Tuffnels, couldn't make a go of it, lost a load of money and then got rid of it. Looks, to me, as though they've learnt their lesson.

Nice boring business.

[stevesham] 10/2/2023 15:43

Hi trident5

Thanks for your thoughts, that's my problem, it's cheap, and maybe that's not the best reason for me to invest, as thin margins and declining markets could lead to a reduction in dividend and I am building an income portfolio

Maybe I should move on and not get tempted by a lowly P/E currently 4.5 on Stockopedia

Cheers

[trident5] 10/2/2023 15:39

Nope - margins are thin and it's operating in a declining area - but it's very cheap.

[stevesham] 10/2/2023 15:12

Serious question, I have researched the fundamentals for this and although the operating margin is less than I would normally look at the yield does seem attractive.

The one thing that is really making me pause is the declining market for newspapers and magazines, have I got that wrong and is there something I am missing that would let me press the buy button

All comments and thoughts appreciated
TIA

[stevensupertrader] 10/2/2023 15:05

Today selling resumes (3 times more sellers than buyers in volume till now ) yet the price of SNWS is up unlike yesterday more buyers than sellers as many received their dividends and reinvested by buying SNWS - STRANGE PRICE BEHAVIOUR !!!!

[edmundshaw] 09/2/2023 22:58

I was one of those in this before, was doing really well, but then barely got out above breakeven including a lot of dividends after the last management's acquisition with debt, renaming, mismanagement and failed enterprise add-ons almost destroyed this company. But the resilience of the cashflow saved it, and now the debt is largely a past issue.

With the new management and sensible support from banks I got interested again and re-invested; looking really good again, and I am very happy! :))

[1knocker] 09/2/2023 13:47

A very welcome fistful of beer vouchers received from Smiths News today.

It was hard to bring myself to get back in here after selling out as the previous management's debacle unfolded. Companies seldom come back from the dead, let alone regain rude health. Sorry for those who sold out and (very understandably) decided 'once bitten, twice shy'and did not repurchase fr the come back.

[aishah] 09/2/2023 10:51

Comfortably above 200d SMA and 7% off a golden cross (50d).
Nice big dividend in today.

[norbert colon] 09/2/2023 10:48

Yep Telegraph cover prices up 14% from GBP 3.50 to 4.00

[laughton] 09/2/2023 10:38

Yes, overall market may be going down slowly but some element of inflation protection here. Much income linked to cover price of newspapers and magazines. Telegraph just put their prices up so good for us.

[catabrit] 09/2/2023 10:07

Yeah you’re almost getting a ~10% dividend yield that’s 3x covered by FCF. Circa 55% of the major contracts have been renewed to 2029 so revenue predictability looks OK. We’re going to be in a very strong net cash position by year end. I can see lots of special dividends or buybacks. Can’t believe this traded down to 29p odd. 15% yield!

[this_is_me] 09/2/2023 08:41

Big cash boost to my ISA today from the dividend.

[1knocker] 09/2/2023 01:13

Agree Cat. I bought with trepidation when they were 27, and with greater confidence a few more at 39. Now wishing I had bought more. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Another opportunity sub 40 would be very welcome. In this market, you never know.

[catabrit] 08/2/2023 18:11

Strong buy. Acquired some this afternoon. Gutted I missed the Q3 sell off as I would have bought this thing in size. It’s still really cheap though and you need to come up with some pretty draconian assumptions to lose money. I like this a lot and hope it sells off. GLTA.

[santangello] 08/2/2023 18:08

So The Chairman's wife is buying (doesn't get any more solid than that), the share price bounces perfectly off the solid support level, and dividend reinvestments to flow in tomorrow..........absolutely lovely :)