Smiths News Share Discussion Threads

[fangorn2] 25/3/2014 09:35

What kind of entry point are you looking for Fenner?

[fenners66] 25/3/2014 09:28

This continues to fall , I guess the name change has not excited the analysts. Sometimes it seems to me that management time can be seen to be diverted to peripheral issues like changing the name rather than concentrating on core business of making a profit, is that the case here?
I will keep tabs on these if they fall far enough I may be back for the yield again.

[maxk] 25/3/2014 00:07

I would have thought the dog would be well pleased for other reasons....

[edmundshaw] 17/3/2014 09:36

A very sensible move imo. We do not want to carry the label of a declining newspaper distributor when we are becoming so much more.

And when the market looks at Connect with new eyes, perhaps as a growth company in the general distribution sector, we should get some level of rerating, perhaps a quite serious one... future results permitting, of course.

[mundungus] 17/3/2014 09:17

Company changing its name to 'Connect' to reflect their diversification into books and other projects:

[bscuit] 05/3/2014 23:32

There is a "read across" from Menzies, which some years ago went into airport logistics as a diversification from newspaper/magazine distribution and which reported yesterday. Apparently its newspaper and particularly magazine distribution arms had a challenging year and their share of turnover declined from 43% to 37%. They are to increasingly focus on the logistics. The dividend was up 5%, but that will have been attributable to logistics.

[kazoom] 05/3/2014 22:37

The statement itself seemed rather placid, unless you do a bit of "compare and constrast" :

15-Jan-14 (IMS)



The Group remains on track to deliver strong growth in underlying profit before tax for the year to 31 August 2014, in line with market expectations.

3-Mar-14 (PRE-CLOSE)

As a result underlying Group profit before tax for the first half is expected to be in line with the prior year. (Not least because I was sorely tempted to sell at c. 190 on the way up, but decided I felt that the 'story' had kept up with the price.)

We shall see.



Now one should note that the first comment relates to the full year whereas the most recent relates to H1, but nevertheless it appears to be significantly less positive message only 6 weeks later, with nothing flagged as materially unexpected.

Maybe the two statements are entirely consistent and the "strong growth" is still on track for H2, but one can understand why "the market" is a little bit nervous.

If I had a greater insight to suggest that it is just poor comms I would be with edmund and be topping up, as it is I find myself a somewhat nervous holder

[edmundshaw] 05/3/2014 21:56

It's a value trap if earnings fall off a cliff. But I didn't read that from the statement at all.

News dividion holding up OK for now, other parts of the business with timing issues and mix change (the latter might not be temporary), but earnings for the full year could equal last year's. And no obvious reason why earnings should fall subsequently that I know of.

So if growth is slowing or flattening we are talking 22.4p for the full year. Should be worth a multiple of ten imo, so 220p seems not unfair. 168p is a bargain and I am positioned accordingly... imho.

[bscuit] 05/3/2014 17:21

While I accept that that the run-up to 250 was probably irrational exuberance the trend reversal to 166 is not in my opinion justified by the statement.

It was interesting that Paul Scott [Stockopaedia--Small Cap Value] stated that the balance sheet was very weak and he felt the company should not be paying a dividend at all. He sees the company as a value trap as a great deal hinges on the dividend.

[lord gnome] 05/3/2014 17:21

Same here fenners. I sold out at 210 and thought I had made a bad call when they continued to shoot up. I sold on the back of poor numbers from MNZS and saw them read-across to NWS. As it happens, the news division is the one left holding up the empire, so eventually I seem to have made the right decision but for the wrong reason.
If these do bottom out with an offering of a yield of 6% or more, I may be tempted to get back in.

[speedsgh] 05/3/2014 15:21

looks like NWS is definitely into a trend reversal. will be interesting to see where support will kick in.

according to Digital Look forecast dividend for current FY is 9.97p giving a prospective yield of c6% at current share price. however i suspect forecasts for the dividend will be reduced in the coming weeks following monday's statement.

[markie7] 05/3/2014 10:50

still falling. this will get interesting eventually from a yield point of view.

[fenners66] 03/3/2014 11:37

Sold at 208 in October having read the results and thought it was running out of steam after a good run (from around 75p).
The leap up to 250 had me wondering but with recent falls back to around my exit price I was believing the decision proved to be right.
I invested some in Admiral which were up about 18% (before today) but with the hope of a higher yield.
Overall not too surprised to see flat profit expectations and therefore a fall back.

[edmundshaw] 03/3/2014 11:26

Agree seems an over-reaction. Still cheap at a PER of around 8 on flat earnings for the full year.

[d40eq6] 03/3/2014 11:00

I think it is a bad day to be releasing any news! It is an over reaction. I have followed this share closely since 90p and made some good profits. Debating a top up at these levels as this company is capable of making good returns.

[wjccghcc] 03/3/2014 10:51

Given that PBT was supposed to be flat this year anyway, perhaps an overreaction?

[n3tleylucas] 30/1/2014 12:12

You back Jack? Saw you on xel t'other day?

[skinny] 15/1/2014 07:04

The Group remains on track to deliver strong growth in underlying profit before tax for the year to 31 August 2014, in line with market expectations.

Total Group revenues decreased 0.4% year on year. The performance of each business unit is as follows;

· Smiths News total revenues declined by 2.0% and by 2.8% on a like for like basis.
Both newspaper and magazine performance is marginally above recent run rates, although full year expectations remain in line with last year's performance and prior guidance.

· Bertrams total revenues increased by 9.7% and decreased by 0.4% on a like for like basis.
Total revenues are being driven by recent acquisitions, with like for like revenues favourably impacted by the continued growth in Wordery, which is being offset by decreases in international and libraries revenues.

· The Consortium total revenues increased by 4.2% and by 4.2% on a like for like basis.
Education and Early years performed in line with expectations. Core revenues were up 6.0% benefitting from a strong peak performance in September.

· Media total revenues increased by 2.0% and by 0.2% on a like for like basis.

There has been no change in the underlying financial condition of the Group since the year ended 31 August 2013 and the Group continues to operate well within its bank facilities.

The Group will announce its interim results for the six months ending 28 February 2014 on 23 April 2014.

[bscuit] 18/12/2013 21:27

In a market that is going sideways and with a primary revenue source that is declining, albeit they are developing new sources of revenue I am surprised by the consistent rise in the share price .....not that I am complaining at up 200%, but it does seem odd.

[edmundshaw] 09/12/2013 16:47

Hm there are a lot of questions on that one, independent retailer, meat related risks, no expansion yet, and some past poor performance. Not robust enough for me I am afraid.

Besides my gf is a rabid vegetarian, not sure I would be allowed! :)

[edmundshaw] 09/12/2013 16:39

cheers davidosh, will have a look.

[davidosh] 09/12/2013 15:56

Have any of you looked at CRAW ? Just checkout the like for like growth through the year and now the roll out of new stores.

[lord gnome] 09/12/2013 15:49

Oops. Bad call.

[edmundshaw] 06/12/2013 09:16

Cheers Baracuda. Not sure I feel competent to invest in JIL, though. Scary stuff! :)