Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 09/9/2021 17:23

Jeff
Remember Billywhizz
Never been seen since RPC
Obviously a broker stooge

[buyzantium] 09/9/2021 13:47

Added yesterday at 454. I regard this as a strong 18 month hold now, buying further on any weakness.

[cableguy1] 09/9/2021 11:43

Demand for cardboard packaging and reduction on plastic packaging

[jeffian] 08/9/2021 23:08

And why do you think there would be a reduction in demand for packaging?

[cableguy1] 08/9/2021 19:58

With ds smith raising its price on cardboard I can only see it rising while there is demand for packaging

[buyzantium] 08/9/2021 16:00

Smurfit and Mondi both down over 2% as well.

[bertie1251] 08/9/2021 09:04

Smurfit: EBITDA 16.7%, ROCE 14.8%, Net debt/ EBITDA 1.6x
DSS: 13.5%, 8.2%, 2.2x

Smurfit's cost management superior & better operational performance.

It's a question of where they are in the valuation cycle.

[charlotte2020] 07/9/2021 22:42

Very interesting. So you would go Smurfitt over DSS?

[bertie1251] 07/9/2021 20:23

Just some perspective from a packaging veteran.(ex Amcor Exec Director)
I am a significant long term holder in DSS and still nursing a loss.
The current managements is poor, especially compared with Smurfit.
.
2021/22 results will be good provided cost recovery is effective.
Take the short term progress while you can. They have overpaid for acquisitions and there will be significant costs with greenfield start ups from Q4.

Analyst's questions post presntations are inavriably tame:
What is the impact of cost inflation on profitability?
What is the value and timing of long term contracts?
How are the commercial teams managed and incentivised?

Despite similar exceptional cost inputs Amcor's recent full year results were stellar.

Incidentally, I have an additional small holding in DSS, similar with Smurfit & Mondi. All purchased earlier this year, currently each at least 25% up.

[cableguy1] 07/9/2021 19:48

No possible takeover with mondi then?

[buyzantium] 07/9/2021 15:54

J.P.Morgan raises PT on DS Smith to 577p from 557p, thinks theoutlook is very strong for short and mid-term trading.

[ianood] 07/9/2021 14:24

Historically - lively management and DS Smith don't accord too well!

[jeffian] 07/9/2021 10:47

Not on your own, B, but I'm no chartist so have no comment on that score. I bought in here (quite substantially) when RPC were taken over and I wanted to park the proceeds in the packaging sector. Not sure how lively this management are but took the view that with the move to e-commerce, accelerated by the Covid 'lockdown' leading to increased home deliveries, it would be a hard business to c*ck up in the present climate!

[buyzantium] 07/9/2021 10:28

The Times this morning - "Britain's leading cardboard packaging supply company has indicated that it expects to power on to record profits this year. DS Smith is riding the multiyear megatrends of huge growth in online shopping and home deliveries, which demand a lot of cardboard that is recycled rather than virgin pulp. On top of that is the general consumer demand that consumer goods companies avoid using plastic."

[buyzantium] 07/9/2021 10:21

Still on my own here it appears. The trading statement I suggest confirms my view as outlined in posting 3933.

[buyzantium] 02/9/2021 15:30

Worth looking at the 3 month chart and the breakout upwards now occurring. Surprised to see so little interest or comment on this board.

[buyzantium] 20/8/2021 09:19

I agree with Tnt99. My reading of the charts of a 3 year, 1year and 3 month periods in my opinion all exhibit a strong possibility that the share price will rise to at least 550 in the next 18 months. The most recent indication has been the breakout from a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern at the 430 level. Also over the past few days strong support is being seen at present levels. With the rumour of a bid for the Company still a possibility I remain a strong holder and buyer on weakness having done so at 384, 404 and most recently at 435.

[buyzantium] 19/8/2021 05:20

DS Smith in talks with biotechnology firms to assess seaweed fibre packaging.

[tnt99] 14/8/2021 18:58

Think you are all crazy getting out I expect with improved sales this will be over 6 pounds in a year or so!

[buyzantium] 11/8/2021 15:55

Something afoot?

[dbaker1980] 02/8/2021 21:54

Hi, I just thought it would be polite of me to update regarding my decision here.
I sold out at 427 today. Which was about 15% profit on my last holdings.
I just see better opportunities outside of the packaging sector. I see nothing that tells me there's a big potential upside and the dividends just aren't attractive enough.
I can tell you that there's serious paper supply problems out there. Mainly on Kraft at the moment, but it will impact test 2 supply as this gets used as a replacement.
I wish you all luck for the future here. You may get lucky with a buyout, and I may be a fool!

[nightspot] 13/7/2021 23:06

You've made some very interesting points DB1980. Thank you. I sold after being very disappointed with the recent results. I could not, and do not, understand the sales volume drop in the current climate. Management explanations were unconvincing. I still believe that the company will be a long term success story and shall keep an eye out for a decent entry point, but feel perhaps it will dip and consolidate at lower levels before resuming the uptrend. IMO the covid issue will remain an influence longer than I think markets are anticipating.

[dbaker1980] 13/7/2021 22:09

After putting pen to paper here, I realise that I am definitely only holding on the prospect of a takeover bid.
It's only a smallish amount. Over the next few days I will decide what to do.
From what I understand the Mondi interest was a surprise. It was also nowhere near high enough.
And we haven't heard anything about it since. No comments from either party.
I believe any acquisition like this in the UK would result in consolidation of sites. So not necessarily growth, but improved efficiency.
I can't speak for overseas operations at all. So I may be missing something there.
So for me there are two possible scenarios here.
1. Smds is seen as currently undervalued and Mondi thought they would try their luck
2. Smds is seen as being in a precarious situation with their debt and Mondi wanted to express early interest

I have to stress that I came here more looking for opinion rather than give any and I may have interpreted things badly.

More recently raw material prices have shot through the roof, and many of their customers will likely not be in a position to take on the costs that they want to pass on without serious negotiation. This however would be sector wide and not only apply to Smiths.
E commerce may be thriving, but industrial use needs to get back to where it was pre covid. Car manufacturing for example.
Social distancing within sites has caused a lot of extra costs. Think of sites running 24/7 to accommodate this when they ordinarily would only do that October to Jan.
Hopefully this changes next week.

[jeffian] 13/7/2021 17:35

Thank you.

I understand about the 'overweight' thing and it all comes down to one's appetite for risk. Mine must be extraordinarily high because at one time I had 70% of my entire portfolio in a single share!

[dbaker1980] 13/7/2021 17:12

I'll be completely honest - the reason I sold 75% was because I was terribly overweight on it. It was the first investment I ever made. I bought it at a very high price and then panicked and "averaged down" over a couple of years.
I ended up with far too much riding on it and it was a great relief to be able to sell at a profit a few months ago when the takeover rumours started.
So it was less of a clever decision and more of a lucky opportunity for me to re-balance sensibly.
I have also since realised that I am mentally more suited to index funds! I do hold a few other company shares still but on a much smaller scale.
I guess I don't see anything that sets SMDS aside from their competition.
Sure, I would expect organic growth, but nothing that would stand out from the competition/sector. They are working hard on the ESG side of things, perhaps more than SKG and Mondi, but is that something that will pay off for shareholders - I'm not sure.
I do worry about that debt that doesn't appear to reduce despite selling off plastic and holding back on dividends.
I'm in no rush to sell or anything, but I do question whether I am holding for the right reasons or not. I'm just going through that process.