Smc Share Discussion Threads

[hdenandy] 30/5/2007 11:27

Tempted to buy, but with the price still edging downwards, will wait for sub 40p.

[gary102] 30/5/2007 11:22

Dave don't you mean inching down?

[njp] 30/5/2007 11:13

Numis is the mm to watch. Wins of course are hyperactive as ever.

[dave7] 30/5/2007 11:07

Go on,buy some,you know you want to and it's really very tempting with the price inching up...........

[masurenguy] 30/5/2007 10:58

paulcaine - problem is 'who really knows' ? The Board have demonstrated that they didn't have a grasp on the financials so how can anyone draw conclusions at this stage. How competent was their DD on acquisitions ? Did they overpay for some acquisitions ? Are the Deferred Consideration liabilites a further drain on capital then was previously realised ? How realistic are their sales projections since much of this is based on WIP calculations ?

There are so many questions that remain unanswered. It maybe a lot better than people fear or a lot worse than they anticipate. When they actually announce their conclusions after reviewing the report how much credibility will be given to them ? The share price for companies with this kind of history is driven more by sentiment than anything else !

[njp] 30/5/2007 10:56

AS siwel has pointed out, if it's very bad, lending covenants could be breached. Logic would dictate that it shouldn't be as bad as that, but then I wasn't expecting this news so soon after being assured all was well - and self-evidently, the management weren't either, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

[sirhokko] 30/5/2007 10:51

I think anybody considering buying now should seriously hold off until a further RNS is released clarifying how bad things really are. Is it really worth trying to second guess the bottom, on the hope that the RNS will be good and there will be a bounce? It could easily be bad and you could be down 20% straight away - with no hope of a quick rebound. It's nothing more than a gamble and the odds really aren't in your favour.

[gary102] 30/5/2007 10:47

My piece of amateur advice is don't buy now, wait until they announce the results, make a quick assessment of the results and watch to see the reaction, even getting in now may be risky, that's my humble opinion.


Cool_Hand I got in at 60p and also in at 90p, so I am also sitting on a large loss...

[paulcaine2003a] 30/5/2007 10:46

Masurenguy,

yeah I agree credibility is probably the main issue. Surely they must make in excess of 3m bearing in mind that new acquisition profit alone is 2.9m (assuming that these figures were not fudged prior to acquisition).

[faddiet] 30/5/2007 10:46

Even if they do release a "positive" statement, will anyone believe it? why would you not assume another profit warning a few weeks later?

Its blindingly obvious they havn't got a bleeding clue what's going on.

Absolute mess of a company, have lost money recently but well and truly out now.

40p will seem like a godsend when its touching the low 20s or suspended !

[wyorke] 30/5/2007 10:44

no big trade, high risk, up may 50P,
downside may 30-20 P

[scotswhaehae] 30/5/2007 10:42

Can't disagree with any of that Masurenguy...

Maybe it is 'darkest before the dawn' etc...we shall see!

[masurenguy] 30/5/2007 10:40

Paulcaine - one of the big problems here is credibility after 3 profit warnings and also as a result the conflicting statements made on April 11th & May 26th. The latter has naturally had a very negative impact on sentiment since it also implied that the Board still had no real grasp on the companys true financial position at the time.

Prior to any credible financial report a solvency issue still hangs over the company. Even if the outcome of the review indicates a much more positive scenario, will people really take them seriously until they have actually demonstrated some real results at the interims so everyone is able to see what debt servicing ratio really exists !

[cool_hand] 30/5/2007 10:40

Don't quote me but I think this may of hit the bottom.

[cool_hand] 30/5/2007 10:39

Gary, some bought into SMC higher than you (including myself).

My holdings not huge so my loss is not as it could be but never the less it's a huge loss as a percentage.

I will hold for now as I believe there must be some better news in the pipeline.

But this could be a long wait to see this back closer to £1.

[scotswhaehae] 30/5/2007 10:34

Looks like we may have seen 'capitulation'...in which case there could be 20% upside even before the review is RNS'd...

dyor of course but maybe, just maybe!

[gary102] 30/5/2007 10:27

This is making me sick...

In April I had a toss up between buying into SMC or EDA (Endace)

I decided to invest in SMC.

SMC April 58p - Now 39p
EDA April 140p - Now 370p!

I think I'm gonna vomit over my keyboard..

[gary102] 30/5/2007 10:20

Surely we are at the bottom now?

It can't go much lower than 39p, these shares were 190p five months ago!

I think the huge drop between then and now is a huge over reaction, what has really happened between then and now that can justify the massive drop?

Imo it's the handling of the last five months by the management that's caused all this fear and panic, if it was handled better we might not be all the way down here at 39 foking pence!

They stay bad news affects the share price for at least three days, so maybe it will go lower, but I hope not...

[paulcaine2003a] 30/5/2007 10:18

mO27OhOO

If you read the statement back, there are a few clues as to how bad/good it is, and given these clues, I feel that this may already be oversold imo.

In the statement they use the word "may" and not "will". They also say that the time period will be for the first six months of the year. Now assuming that its true and significantly means 25%, then the whole years potential profit is 8m, so half year is 4m, take 25% is 3m profit for the half year. Double that to make a full years profit and you have 6 million. I think the banks would be happy with that especially given that they are not close to their limit at the moment.

Not saying this is over yet and I have a big holding (for me) and am therefore bricking it. But saying that, I work in construction and know that there is work about everywhere, companies such as mitie and tommy clarke are all making big profits and positive trading statements and therefore I fail to see how SMC can be significantly away from their targets this year. My opinion is that it is down to the acquisitions and a cpouple of bad apples.

Sorry this post is such a mess but cant be bothered to sort it out.

[m0270h00] 30/5/2007 10:17

Many thanks for all who have responded I will indeed do more research, but I am very tempted

Andrew

[meadow50] 30/5/2007 10:13

No-one knows whether the contract wins are good,bad or indifferent,least of all the Directors.If the costings have been prepared by the current finance dept your guess is as good as theirs imho.

[siwel100] 30/5/2007 10:09

mO27OhOO....It depends just how bad the news is, if they break bank covenants, if they can finance the debt, if they can cover the payouts. It also depends if the business they have been winning is profitable.
Logic would say it will recover but the management have such a poor grasp of the business, just about anything could happen including suspension and liquidation. That sounds extreme but they are loaded in debt and have very little in the way of tangible assets.

[njp] 30/5/2007 10:07

m0270

If we were that good at spotting bottoms, we'd be spending our riches, not sat here trying to make 'em!

Could well be oversold, but we just don't know. HQ management has lost all credibility and changes need to be made, because they don't seem to have a clue about the finances.

If you're new to it, do check out the debt and be aware that deferred consideration payouts are also an issue.

[njp] 30/5/2007 09:58

I dunno, paul. Mine have certainly suffered more in % terms than ftse on pulbacks. Last Feb's little correction wasn't so bad, but last May was. And they took a long time to recover, too, though from November on they were on fire.

Poor general sentiment plus uncertainty. Not a good combination and, I'm sure, must be playing on holders' nerves.

Fwiw, if I were still holding, I wouldn't sell today.

[m0270h00] 30/5/2007 09:57

Hi all,

I've been watching SMC for a while, I've read the threads and I note problems with accounting etc... Am I right to note that the share price look as if its returned to it's original share price when SMC floated.

So I have assumed a couple of things

1. big institution will steer clear of this for company in the short to medium term, therefore PI are likely to support the SP

2. SMC have won some good contracts and looks as if this trend will continue.

3. Whilst I'm a novice, I think the recent share price movement is an over reaction

Does anyone know (million dollar question I suppose) what is the bottom to SMC share price ? has it been reached yet ?

I genuinely feel for any PI who may have lost a lot in this company, I recently lost a lot in PLW and was gutted, however I feel SMC will bounce back after this reporting issue is resolved

Many thanks