Smart Metering Systems Share Discussion Threads

[essential] 11/10/2016 15:50

Topped up a bit more. I am wondering if scsw add these to their growth portfolio this month as the write up was incredibly bullish last month and if so means the weighting will increase in my portfolio.

[nw99] 11/10/2016 10:48

Seller cleared ?

[nw99] 11/10/2016 09:39

Doubled up here

[sheep_herder] 09/10/2016 10:42

I think the writeup in SCSW is a little misleading. Albany, your numbers above for addressable market are way off. SMS' market is only the 2m domestic units that they have access to via the 8 energy firms they're currently contracted to. The majority of the 27m market is owned by the big three installers. How are SMS planning on gaining market share outside of that 2m? Not to mention that there is no legal requirement for households to install a smart meter anyway so you can reduce that addressable market by at least 50%.

If you look at the last results and the First Utility announcement you see that for the next 18 months they only hope to install 300k meters. So 1Q18 will see an additional 300k meters installed (not guaranteed) and that will add £16m onto the current £39m of recurring domestic installs. That's 20% CAGR but I don't see how they can get bigger growth unless they are signed up by the tier1 suppliers.

Has anyone seen the house brokers note? If I look at Stockopedia, the current FY estimate is 65.3 which is low. I'd estimate that they'll do at least 70m if I add that 16m onto the FY15 totals. That excludes extra income from the installation side after the recent purchases and I'm not taking into account the I&C side. So what's that? A range of £70-75m for FY17. I don't get where the Stockopedia net profit for 2017 comes from as if I use the same 35% margins and maintain the costs at 5m I get £19.5m net profit for 2017. Stockopedia are showing a 20.9 net with revenue of 65.3 which doesn't add up.

Edit - actually, I need to add that £16m onto the trailing 12 month so my FY17 numbers go to £76.7 revenue, op profit of £26.8m and net profit of c.£22m, EPS of 24.4p and a price target of £6.84 at today's PER.

[albanyvillas] 05/10/2016 11:36

if they have 2m meters in four years then it is £600m of capex but generates £108m of repeat income at near 100% gross margin

108m in year one
108m in year 2
...
...
108m in year 15


what i like is that everyday there is a few more metres being added
market 27m -45m metres


nice to see lion trust holding 12% of these too

[anley] 05/10/2016 11:18

Tight market both ways........be careful.

[cheshire pete] 04/10/2016 14:22

Bought in twice 4 years ago at £2.24 average price. No plans to sell now. The article in Sharewatch tipping SMS, ref. nw99 above, makes interesting reading.

[albanyvillas] 04/10/2016 10:00

Starting to move, 700p here we come

[nw99] 03/10/2016 08:07

New sharewatch tip at the weekend

[davr0s] 03/10/2016 08:05

:) told you this is being accumulated. Lovely

[anley] 02/10/2016 18:21

I sold mine when First Utility my gas/elec supplier tried to sell me the service. I asked my son to work out how it would work and what we could save and the answer was not a great deal

So that is how I came to sell as I can't see the vast number of consumers wanting to pay £400 for this unit so look at one of my last posts and you will see that the government may have a problem on its hand.

[davr0s] 02/10/2016 17:55

Well someone's buying and I bought in Thursday on break so delighted with Friday's performance. I'll just keep my stop positioned at a sensible level

[nurdin] 02/10/2016 13:32

Trading at 34x estimated 2016 earnings.Dont think I could sleep easy holding these but no doubt they will keep going up.

[zho] 02/10/2016 08:48

By 2020, every home could have a hi-tech gas and electricity meter to cut bills and send readings wirelessly. But doubts are being cast on the £11bn scheme

[anley] 18/8/2016 10:42

Something tells me that the UK Government roll out of smart meters has hit a brick wall and this must be excellent news for SMS.

There is comment in todays Times - Business Section that highlights this but I am unable to post it.

[mach100] 15/8/2016 19:19

Tipped by Midas as a share with good revenues and the barriers to entry of cost of meters. Gave a bit of a boost to the shares today but hopefully we can push on with LTH and onto 500p

[trickyricky] 08/8/2016 12:22

Why the rise today?

[anley] 27/4/2016 10:17

Quite a change as well as a new Chairman..........I bet this company will be bid for sooner rather than later!!

[anley] 14/4/2016 17:19

In the meantime some 19m shares have traded hands today - await the announcements with at least one this afternoon............

[anley] 22/3/2016 10:10

It is not a problem for a company to use its inflated scrip for acquisitions so long as everything else is balanced..............in the case of acquiring some businesses it may be that some of these shares come back on to the market to ease liquidity as I have been unable to buy blocks without disturbing the market....

SMS will tell you that cash is used to buy and install meters and this year I will really be looking at their next few years growth based on past installations to see just what the share price could get to in say 3 years time.

I await the report and accounts..............

[mach100] 21/3/2016 11:15

SMS are funding the initial considerations for the acquisitions through its own equity. Not sure if I overly happy with the dilution. SMS could have used some of its profits to fund the outlay. But all in all very good results and the company are capturing more and more of the market. Given the 2020 target of everyone being on a smart meter, there is a lot of growth and more importantly high visibility in terms of revenue. A very solid hold imho with a TP of 450p by year end.

[anley] 21/3/2016 09:49

The market likes the results and add on businesses..........