Smart Metering Systems Share Discussion Threads

[orm5] 15/3/2022 07:13

Nothing unexpected in the results, I think the next set of results will be key to see what contribution the battery projects are adding. It may continue to drift until then. Slight delay to the second battery project, now indicated as q2 rather than q1.

[km18] 11/3/2022 12:22

...from last year...

Company overview:
Smart Metering Systems plc is a company which owns, operates and maintains metering systems. They also provide smart energy and carbon reduction consultancy services to large organizations. Company’s ambition is to promote low-carbon smart energy revolution for a greener and more sustainable world. With more than 25 years of experience, SMS has continuous momentum in securing meter and CaRe assets with growth opportunities based on Government’s plan for the next decades.
Final results for 2020 showcased company’s resilience, with decreased revenue, contrasted by higher gross profit margin. The exceptional figure of £200m operating profit last year includes also and exceptional item in the face of £194m gain on disposal of a subsidiary. Latest trading update confirms the SMS is operating in line with Board’s expectations. Revenue for the H1 2021 is 9.3% above H2 2020, at £84.2m, driven by strong recovery in smart meter installation rates and 5% increase in total meter and data assets. Board is expecting this year to bring another £70m to the Group’s £50m EBITDA from 2020.

Projects:
Grid-scale battery projects are expected to be built in line with cost and construction programme expectation.

Competitors: BULB, Ovo energy Ltd, E.ON, ScottishPower

Short analysis (FY 2020) :

P/E 65.2
Cash decreased by 20% caused by debt retirement of around £271m
Net debt is negative, as cash now covers levels of debt
CA/CL =  2.5
Cash ratio = 0.93
Interest coverage = 44.73
P/S = 9.8 , which is higher than sector average
BV ps = 360, with CAGR of 45.6%
Operating profit of 200, or 14 times more than 2019, adjusting for the gain from disposal result is around 40% ahead of 2019
Gross profit Margin = 51%, vs 36% in 2019...

...from WealthOracleAM

[orm5] 15/2/2022 21:15

Good to see the new battery projects securing some places in the capacity market auctions - all adds to the revenue stack https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Capacity%20Markets%20Document%20Library/T-1%20DY%202022-23%20Provisional%20Capacity%20Auction%20Report%20v1.0.pdf

[orm5] 05/2/2022 17:17

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/battery-storage-revenues-rising-amid-record-high-frequency-services-prices

[orm5] 05/2/2022 17:09

Battery cost is interesting as long term the cost is expected to fall based on uptake, similar to what happened with solar PV, however short term could be paying more.I believe the meter revenue is inflation linked. Battery revenue is driven by energy price and imbalance in the market, imbalance has been increasing year on year.

[1jat] 05/2/2022 15:56

Some rapid share price changes in the last couple f weeks.
1 can’t see the battery business avoiding inflation cost overruns.
2 interest rates going up will reduce the future value of future revenues and crease future funding

However there is a predictability to the income stream so they should command a higher rating than more speculative stocks.

Would like to see this recovering to 800-850p

In a falling market this may outperform….

[george stobbart] 04/2/2022 17:29

takeover >10 quid i'd bet

[orm5] 04/2/2022 17:12

Welcome onboard, hopefully it heads in the right direction. Still non the wiser on the movements over the past few days....

[bulltradept] 04/2/2022 09:02

Taken a small position here.

[orm5] 04/2/2022 08:49

Looks like Calisen was taken over for GBP 1.4bn.

[george stobbart] 04/2/2022 08:33

yes their listed competitor Calisen (CLSN) was taken private during covid dip by Goldman Sachs

if SMS stays weak likely to go private as well

[bountyhunter] 04/2/2022 08:19

Agreed it could be any one or more of those reasons orm5. From your link...

Smart Metering Systems plc (LON:SMS) has received an average rating of "Buy" from the six analysts that are covering the stock, MarketBeat reports. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a hold rating and five have issued a buy rating on the company. The average 1 year target price among brokerages that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is GBX 1,053 ($14.21).

[orm5] 03/2/2022 21:55

Average broker target of 1053https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/lon-sms-consensus-analyst-rating-2022-01-2-3/amp/

[orm5] 03/2/2022 21:37

No idea either, the past few days it was moving up and the last trade yesterday was for a large volume at 807.Change in CEO and looks like the CEO (now ex CEO took a loan out against the shares he owns), but that was the other week.Placing at 900 a few months backPerhaps being managed / manipulated to let someone in or out ? Takeover target ?

[bountyhunter] 03/2/2022 21:32

The recent trading update was excellent with the company firing on all cylinders...

28 January 2022

Smart Metering Systems plc

Trading update

Smart Metering Systems plc (AIM: "SMS", the "Group"), a fully integrated energy infrastructure company owning and managing meter assets, energy data, grid-scale battery storage and other carbon reduction ("CaRe") assets is pleased to provide a trading update for the year ended 31 December 2021 ("FY 2021").

The Group will announce its audited results for FY 2021 on 15 March 2022.

Highlights

-- Index-linked annual recurring revenue ("ILARR") grew 11.6% to GBP85.9m (31 December 2020: GBP77.0m)


-- Total meter and data assets increased to 4.2m (31 December 2020: 3.8m)
o Domestic smart meter portfolio increased to 1.7m (31 December 2020: 1.3m)

o Smart meter order pipeline increased to c.2.55m(1) (31 December 2020: c.2.0m), net of smart meter installations in 2021


-- Grid-scale battery pipeline increased to 620MW (31 December 2020: 267MW(2) )
o Fully secured pipeline of 290MW (31 December 2020: 117MW)

o First 50MW site is now operational

-- FY 2021 underlying PBT is expected to be marginally ahead of consensus, after being upgraded in September 2021

-- Strong net cash position of GBP118m as at 31 December 2021 reflects internal cash generation and the net proceeds of the Group's GBP175m equity placing to finance future growth

-- Board remains confident of the consensus expectations for the current financial year ("FY 2022")

-- Expected FY 2022 dividend of 30.25 pence per share, +10% y-o-y and in line with stated policy

Index-linked annual recurring revenue

Total meter and data asset ILARR growth of 11.6% to GBP85.9m

[bountyhunter] 03/2/2022 21:21

same question from me, anyone?
all I can think of is that the market was unnerved by the recently announced change in CEO although the new appointee (currently the COO) has 20 years experience

[george stobart] 03/2/2022 17:21

why has this one fallen into the earths core?

[orm5] 31/1/2022 15:55

SMS energises 50MW battery energy storage site in Cambridgeshirehttps://www.sms-plc.com/insights/blogs-news/sms-energises-50mw-battery-energy-storage-site-in-cambridgeshire/

[orm5] 21/1/2022 10:23

Update on the 2 battery projects reaching commercial operation would also be welcomed

[orm5] 21/1/2022 10:22

The volume of smart meter installations across the UK was up in 2021, question is how many did SMS do. https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/smart-meter-installation-rates-jump-21-in-2021-as-rollout-bounces-back-from-lockdownsMeter revenues linked to RPI and any existing meters protected with supplier of last resort, however will be interesting to see if the future pipeline has changed

[bountyhunter] 04/11/2021 18:37

I think it will and that it won't take long to get to 900p+ after today's news. The more SMS can build on battery storage of green energy the better imho and that must be worth a decent premium nowadays. Not as trendy as Hydrogen (yet, and look at ITM's stellar valuation!) but where would wind and solar be looking forwards without storage? When the wind is not blowing at night we still need (green) electricity.

[whatja] 04/11/2021 17:51

It was a decent update.
I particularly liked that the first 50MW battery site is on budget….that will be a challenge as inflation takes off….hopefully they have inflation linked pricing in their contract.

I expect the balance in the company to move away from meters and become more diverse with EV charging, heat pumps and things we don’t know about yet providing growth by investing the recurring meter earnings. Green financing should not be hard to come by following COP26.

I am disappointed the share price has not exceeded the recent placement price….on a diluted basis 930 was expected…so I still see upside here.

Your thoughts?

[bountyhunter] 04/11/2021 16:07

Anything under £9 seems good value here especially after reading today's RNS.

[orm5] 03/11/2021 21:33

Is that the seller cleared ??