Simec Atlantis Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rogerramjett] 07/9/2020 13:27

I agree, I think 100p could be achievable on completing the key milestones to financial close and at start of construction but that will not be by end of the year.


I really hope that there are no issues with the environmental permits. The project will not please everyone. I am sure that Simec will be working very closely with the right people to ensure they meet the environmental requirements and above all else it is not a new site and the subcoal pellets are certainly cleaner than coal whilst removing non-recyclable waste from landfill and potentially having to sell it to someone else to deal with overseas.

[tempesttroy] 07/9/2020 12:16

Really interesting stuff. While I think £1.00 a tad optimistic by yr end I think it entirely possible we could see a doubling of the currently priced share price Just got to keep achieving the timed & targetted milestones including the Environmental permit this month. I feel sure, we, as investors will soon be riding on the crest of a (tidal) wave. Pun very much intended!

[x54v] 07/9/2020 11:59

Myles McNulty clearly very keen. Reckons 100p is possible by EOY.

"Core LT investment, #SAE @simecatlantis, has cooled off since its debt finance RNS two weeks ago.

At 25p, I still think my TP below is possible, before year end.

Beyond the below 3 catalysts, there is also permitting at Usk, and potentially even an early financial close."

[rogerramjett] 07/9/2020 11:55

another 6250 added at 27.4p. Again, not sure it is timed to perfection but not a position I will be trading today 😉

[rogerramjett] 07/9/2020 08:22

more buys than sells. My buy was below mid price so will show as a sell.

26.96p for 13750.

Just hope they get the environmental permit this month. Hurdle out the way.

[tempesttroy] 07/9/2020 07:57

I'd say money well spent. share price appears to have dropped 1st thing this morning due to volume of selling activity.

[rogerramjett] 07/9/2020 07:34

added 13750 this morning. Holding a few extra back incase we see a little retracement because of general market conditions

[tempesttroy] 06/9/2020 08:16

Completely agree rogerramjett and I think that's why Uskmouth is receiving a lot of attention and quite rightly so. Time will tell as it always does but I believe we are onto a long term winner. In the shorter term and if memory serves me correct SAE are looking to attain their environment permit which they need and is expected this month sometime. This would mean another key milestone reached leading to (hopefully) a furthet spike in share price

[rogerramjett] 06/9/2020 07:47

TempestTroy. I just thought I would look at the NPA fuel partnership figures and it really is mind boggling based solely on Uskmouth. The same model being rolled out in South Korea with Hana, who clearly have an appetite for these projects would put Simec Atlantis Energy at another level.

[tempesttroy] 06/9/2020 07:38

Completely agree with both previous posts as would, I'm sure the board of directors at SAE. I believe, Tidal energy alone is worth the investment bit over recent months has almost been set to one side in favour of Uskmouth. It's easy to see why. Uskmouth is of global interest due to the number of defunct and soon-to-be defunct coal fire power stations across the world. It very much looks like Simec Atlantis have found the means to provide a stay of execution to these sites. Let's not forget the tie in with Hana & South Korea. There's so much going on with SAE the mind boggles. All boding well for the future for the share price I'm looking to make a further investment next week in a SIPP.

[rogerramjett] 06/9/2020 06:51

So by 2026, SAE are projected to be generating EBITDA of circa £100m per annum, without the NPA fuel EBITDA. Just adding the NPA fuel EBITDA would take this closer to £115m per annum.

Without subtracting tax etc and applying an arbitrary PE is easy to see how SAE could be worth well over £1bn. Particularly important to note is that the projections do not consider any potential growth or partnerships which are not evident or in motion. I just get the feeling that Uskmouth conversion will be deployed elsewhere and this will not be the one and only of its kind in the world

[rogerramjett] 06/9/2020 06:33

Not sure if this has been discussed on here or any real figures have been calculated but the benefit of NPA fuels based solely on supply of Uskmouth with 900,000MT per annum are staggering

The gate fee charged by NPA fuels has to be assumed but looking at a number of websites it could be estimated at £100 per MT



The Arden broker note states that the sale price of the pellets is just £4 per MT (huge benefit to Uskmouth) and the cost to manufacture is £50 per MT

So

900,000 x £104 per MT (£100 gate fee plus £4 sale price per MT) = £93,600,000

£93,600,000 - (50 x 900,000) = £48,600,000 gross margin for NPA fuels

£48,600,000 / 2 = £24,300,000 attributable to Simec Atlantis per annum

The value in this partnership is not considered in the Arden broker note but will actually add more revenue to the business than the tidal projects.

Happy for someone to recalculate this and discuss.

My excitement came from the fact that this is proprietry fuel which is hugely scaleable and could obviously be used globally in further facilities developed by NPA fuels (50% SAE owned) or licenced out. But the only reason to do this would be if further coal fired conversions were completed.

This alone adds significant value to the business. Just not sure it has been looked at or understood just how much

[rogerramjett] 05/9/2020 21:49

clabburn. Don't forget the fact that although both ITM and CWR have revenue, it is most likely that SAE will be highly profitable in the shortest period of time.

SAE are materially undervalued in comparison to the mentioned companies and subject to succesful development of the Uskmouth, Meygen and Ras Blanchard as projected could very easily see a £1bn valuation within 2 years.

If there is further revenues from NPA fuels (nailed on once Uskmouth is operational) and additional conversiomn projects materialise then the upside is enormous.

[clabburn] 05/9/2020 15:02

The great thing here is that unlike stocks such as itm or Ceres (which are both good bets on the future) this one is still materially undervalued despite the recent rise. Still a bargain price and starting to look extremely solid now rather a speculative punt.

[brucie5] 05/9/2020 14:20

Fact that it's come up a long way quite quickly will put many investors off. Also the sheer complexity of the proposition. It also meets no value/quality metrics on Stocko, so pis will either be buying the story, or the chart, which at first glance, looks up with events.

They will need to dig a little deeper.

Great point about the pellets, which just reminds me, I need to re-read the Arden report myself.

[tempesttroy] 05/9/2020 13:14

Absolutely share your sentiments on the potential SPV considering the incredible potential here. I read with interest that one broker values the forward looking shares at £0.77p and this does not take into consideration Uskmouth & all that comes with it. As you rightly say, there are milestones to achieve first & no doubt there will be challenges along the way so I guess there will be the inevitable doubts hence the share price being what it is right now. (Circa £0.27p) But that said surely this is just one down from being a no-brainer or am I being overly optimistic? Maxed out within my ISA but now considering adding more shares via a SIPP as I'm that convinced about the future value of SAE.

[rogerramjett] 05/9/2020 12:37

I have been waiting for a drop all week. SAE has held really well which has inspired me to increase my holding.

By the ned of the year with environmental, PW PPA, planning, EPC award and financial close (last two early Q1 2021) I am expecting the share price to be much nearer the broker target but with some consideration for the NPA fuels also.

The numbers from NPA fuels partnership are huge also, based upon the gate fees alone. Money 💰 for old waste so to speak. Processing and manufacturing costs easily covered by the gate fees with considerable profit.

It would be great for an announcement regarding plans for converting further coal fired in South Korea but nothing can be attributed to this right now.

So what would a broker add for the NPA fuels partnership ?

This could be 75p plus by Christmas with all this going to plan. I would love it to be 100p but happy to wait until start of EPC contract early Q2 2021 to see that. Only 7 months away I might add.

[tempesttroy] 05/9/2020 11:52

I quite agree rogerramjett. I too read all 66 pages of the Arden report as I have all news reports on SAE via multitude of links etc. I'm in for the long term but I do see a shorter term upside in share price as each milestone is achieved. Seldom have I seen a company with so much potential. To be honest, I'm quite excited about this companies future not to mention my own investment!

[rogerramjett] 05/9/2020 10:41

Just re-read the Arden broker research. 66 pages of great detail for Uskmouth and tidal projects.

It has made me seriously review my PF at next week rebalance it in favour of a larger percentage in SAE.

The broker research does not consider (written prior) the NPA fuels partnership and its potential to generate substantial revenues through gate fees and sales (sales price seems relatively low, but significantly improves the fuel cost for Uskmouth).

The beauty of NPA fuels is the proprietry pellets can be used as a direct replacement to coal and its likely that Uskmouth may be the first of a number of projects for SAE in this area. Nothing has been announced on this front yet so it is purely speculative but with Hana financing Uskmouth and 60 coal fired stations in Skuth Korea, 10 recently closed to lower emissions, it seems like an obvious direction.

The arden broker note has estimated EBITDA for the next 10 years and is based upon Uskmouth and Tidal project growth. SAE could very easily be a £1bn company within a few years which is 10 fold from this level. If the NPA fuels is included in this figure and further coal conversion projects announced we could be looking at a very large renewable energy business. Highly profitable with huge growth.

Massive massive potential upside and very excited to sell of some holdings elsewhere and just buy more at this level.

[brucie5] 04/9/2020 14:03

Thanks, Tempest. Appreciate the welcome. Is this still Myles McNulty's no. 2 holding btw?

[tempesttroy] 04/9/2020 13:09

Hi Brucie5, your very welcome. We are all related when it comes to SAE and this is a 1st class forum to provide updates, share news, our thoughts about SP, it's future and our general thoughts about this exciting company.

[brucie5] 04/9/2020 12:38

Decided to get involved here. It's now a core holding. A lot to get my head around, but thanks to all on this bb. for supplying so many essential links. It's a fascinating story, and I look forward to learning more about it in the weeks to come.

[clabburn] 02/9/2020 11:34

This is potentially a great development - I am not a fan of this government but I do think there are signs they understand renewables and the energy transition far better than the governments of Cameron or May.