Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 03/1/2020 22:45

MNK 'collaboration' sounds a bit too good to be as good as it sounds, to me. What are the terms of that 20m ? It's a 2-way collaboration, so how much (if any) of that 20m goes back to MNK for whatever reason ? Has MNK sold or forward sold any of its 5m shares ?

Surely a placing is due to fund the 124 trial ? If not how will the delayed 124 trial get funded ? Is 124 delayed until after a placing ? Has the share price fallen due to forward selling towards a placing? At what price would you anticipate a placing to be at?

[vonmoger] 03/1/2020 22:23

Djnzloop,

I agree Solomon's departure was bizarre. Not sure about him putting together the deal by himself, but ok.

The MNK thing anyone with 2 minutes to spare can find out all about the opioid crisis and mnk potential liabilities. Quested went from 4 to 11% in full knowledge of the deal and that situation, not sure how he or anyone could of missed this by "accident". I'm invested here in full knowledge of these points as well.

Alexion did a deal with Dicerna in October for complement medicines. As such, imho, I believe, Mnk will trigger the other two options under the mnk deal this year. They will also make additional milestone payments under those agreements. The outlook for this deal and other sln deals is bright. There isn't enough RNAi assets to go around for big pharma.

I'm happy to be long and accumulating for the future news deal/events which are inevitable.

Anyone hear about sln124 dosing yet?

[djnzloop] 03/1/2020 21:38

I think it's time to circle back on Solomon's departure. IMO something stinks around that. The share price goes from dead in a ditch to insane and then he's gone in quite the most bizarre exit. He put together the deal with MNK - who currently aren't what I'd call investable. I'm on the sidelines for the time being

[kreature] 03/1/2020 19:04

I can't afford not to be short here 1g.

[1gw] 03/1/2020 17:17

Looks like a gain on the day to me. Not for the first time, trade reporting appears less than transparent.

Back to business as usual, or at least more traders at their desks, next week. Might we hope for some news from the company?

You haven't stayed short over the weekend have you?

[kreature] 03/1/2020 16:37

Spreadex says -6p ?

[1gw] 03/1/2020 13:30

Indeed. Going via google seems to mean you can read it without having to subscribe.

[1gw] 03/1/2020 12:55

Backstory on Griffiths, Keith and Ali ending up in SLN might be interesting to some. Google "griffiths mortazavi evolution" to find an ft article from April 2015.

[1gw] 03/1/2020 12:48

Not me buying today.

If there's a battle (game of chess?) going on between Griffiths/Keith/Quested (and Ali?) on the long side and Miers on the short side, it could move a long way very quickly as it resolves.

Given the position held by the longs you might have thought they would be favourite, so long as there's no fundamental problem with the science disclosed to date.

[kreature] 03/1/2020 12:41

Perhaps someone is buying a few. Up 1.5%. 1gw?

[kreature] 03/1/2020 11:11

If it were an ACATs transfer from broker to broker the shares on both sides would be exact.

[hsm12] 03/1/2020 10:48

No they're not. They are crosses from one broker to another. No shareholding change. Beneficial owner the same.

[kreature] 03/1/2020 09:38

Below the 50 day moving average and would be handled by broker, probably taking a chunk of commission in shares or cash. imo

[vonmoger] 03/1/2020 09:09

If I'm negotiating to buy something in size over weeks or months or even just today... and I expect the price to keep going down... I don't pay materially over the current price... But that is just me, some may have a different strategy.

[kreature] 03/1/2020 08:26

The 665 and 693 trades equal exactly the 1.3m trade. So they are either 2 sides of a trade, or all sells being made to look like 2 sides. But we do know that the share price was £6 a couple of weeks or so ago. Could be a worked £10m sell. Perhaps worked over weeks if not months

[vonmoger] 03/1/2020 08:18

Depends which prism one is looking through. For me, it was done materially above all the other trades yesterday, indication enough that the buy side was willing to pay through and sees value here in size. As prior I agree. Too cheap here, I am happy for it to get cheaper though... Where is that first dosing, shall we start playing that record?

[kreature] 03/1/2020 07:56

They are clearly worked-trades. Not buys. If anything, they indicate that probably more than one significant shareholder is selling. IMO

[1gw] 03/1/2020 07:10

Yes, interesting. Maybe we'll get a holdings notice out of that.

[ukeagle2aus] 03/1/2020 06:20

I just had a cursory look and see it's down again, but the volume caught my eye! Was that 3 million bought in sizeable chunks after the close? If so, someone's mopped up a near 4% stake if my maths are correct?

[vonmoger] 02/1/2020 21:48

Delayed by the timeframes as outlined in clinical trials? In any case I guess it is all perspective and that makes a market.

To me SLN!24 and its first dosing is immaterial. If the company does a deal with big pharma for SLN124... that is material. All for me of course. I would be more than happy for the shorters to pile in on a delay announcement for SLN124. I would happily take the other side.

I am waiting on the big events/deals. Which the rest of the industry has achieved over the past year and SLN is just starting on. The game of musical chairs for big pharma is playing in RNAi... I can hear the music playing, if the shorters like listening to another beat all the better... it'll be like musical chairs for shorters also on an SLN deal announcement. Exciting stuff with low average daily volumes and tightly held.

I have to thank 1gw again for the short info and pointing out Iain Ross' background. I had read it before - but it was refreshing to be reminded of it over the past few days. These two items have me happily building a position here.

End of Q1 is my guess when the music stops playing, but could be earlier or later...

GLA

[kreature] 02/1/2020 21:11

If they didnt dose in H2 then 124 is delayed. Such a delay on AIM is not immaterial imv.

[vonmoger] 02/1/2020 20:32

Sln124 is going ahead. It's all on the clinical trials website. Whether they have dosed a patient yet or not is immaterial - I think, especially compared to the coming deal announcements.

Personally I am particularly interested in this because of the short position that is supposedly being built. The potential for a deal announcement, industry tailwind, cheap to comparables, gap risk, illiquid stock, tightly held - and therefore big upside risk for shorters. This will gap up big on an announcement and will go no offer, likely before the end of Q1.

This was moving 60-70p beginning of December when there were no shorts. I can not wait to see what will happen on the next deal announcement.

I continue to accumulate - the stars are aligning for big rewards.

[1gw] 02/1/2020 20:22

I don't think they're short of people are they? Other than a CEO obviously. Iain Ross was executive chairman, and indeed CEO, at various times during his stint at Silence / SR Pharma between 2004 and 2010, so the company should be in reasonably safe hands for the short-term.

And it could be that losing the CEO just after the company has established itself as a more credible RNAi player through the MNK deal and the Lp(a) asset is a good thing in the medium term - allowing the company to get a bigger hitter on board to take it through the next phase of its development.

But it's reasonable for the company to go quiet over the holiday period. Next week I would expect them to try to return to the offensive with some sort of news.