Silence Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 11/1/2020 18:18

The up-front is a payment for access to the platform/asset. It is a payment for past success, not future work (as I understand it).

The milestone payments are directly linked to further progress on the asset. So they are more like "ear-marked" funds for R&D. But with the SLN500 licence agreement, Silence only has to fund pre-clinical activities, with MNK funding Phase 1.

"Mallinckrodt has agreed to provide Silence with an upfront payment of $20 million. Silence is also eligible to receive up to $10 million in research milestones for SLN500 and for each optioned asset, in addition to funding for Phase 1 clinical development including GMP[4] manufacturing. Silence will fund all other preclinical activities. The collaboration provides for potential added clinical and regulatory milestone payments of up to $100 million for SLN500, as well as commercial milestone payments of up to $563 million for SLN500."

[kreature] 11/1/2020 17:59

I thought 20m of that was for the 500 development. Perhaps I’m wrong about that?

[digger2779] 11/1/2020 16:13

K- I don't think so

Cash

The Company reports an unaudited cash balance at 31 December 2019 of GBP33.5m. This provides the Company with sufficient cash to fund operations under the current business plan into the second half of 2021.

Taken for the last update

[kreature] 11/1/2020 15:51

My god, there has to be a placing on the way with all of this promoting. IMO

[peanut100] 10/1/2020 20:00

They made it very clear on the conf call they'll be more deals signed this year - wouldn't want to be out this one as that news could come any day and you want have time to buy them.

[1gw] 10/1/2020 13:42

Because it isn't the first time that he has suggested someone (big pharma) would have done better to pick up a pre-clinical Lp(a) asset and a platform for $1bn, rather than Mdco for $9.7bn.

If you look back at the history of sln and elsewhere (eg Evolution Securities), you might draw the conclusion that the private investors here (Ali, Griffiths, Keith, Quested) might be on the same page.

[kreature] 10/1/2020 13:38

Any realistic share price targets here ?

[hsm12] 10/1/2020 13:30

How is he doing that?

[1gw] 10/1/2020 13:20

Thank you (I think). I'm not Ali if that's what you're suggesting.

I do think Ali is perhaps signalling that he thinks the major owners of sln would entertain a $1bn offer (about £10/share).

[kreature] 10/1/2020 11:58

1g, you sound like an affable highly intelligent bloke. Are you sure you don't play Chess? ;)

[kreature] 10/1/2020 11:31

von - must be worked sells given the share price today - atb

[sikhthetech] 10/1/2020 11:27

1gw
"Taking some profit I imagine. "

Ali trading then...

Very naive to follow cheerleaders....always best to do your own research...

Did you also follow the "financial guru" Neil Woodfood????

[hsm12] 10/1/2020 10:21

Basic valuations tell you that if MDCO is worth $10b, then a platform with partners and lp(a) and all the other assets cannot be worth less than £3-4 minimum today. If they do a bigger deal as they keep saying they will, no one can argue. There is also clinical assets and a huge disparity between US and U.K. A new CEO with US experience will then mean this company has the whole package. What is there not to like? What can they go down to?

[vonmoger] 10/1/2020 08:45

K

No comments on the big late reported buys from yesterday way higher?

[1gw] 10/1/2020 08:40

Taking some profit I imagine. He bought a big chunk in late 2018 (see 5th Oct 2018 rns) going through 3% and 4% at the time. I remember because I followed him and bought some more. I've taken profit last year, but still believe in the potential of the shareprice to increase significantly, so why shouldn't he?

[kreature] 10/1/2020 08:34

Then why was he selling sln shares to below 3%?

[1gw] 10/1/2020 08:29

Nice to see Ali tweeting about sln again. He is again comparing the price paid for Mdco with the $1bn or so he is suggesting you might be able to get a pre-clinical Lp(a) asset plus a platform for ie sln.

Perhaps the Edison analyst could talk to him about valuation metrics!

[vonmoger] 10/1/2020 00:13

1gw, fwiw agree with everything you wrote on that Edison note.

No allowance for imminent deals.
5% or put better 95% haircut on LP(a)
No allowance for yet announced undisclosed future assets.

I am actually surprised that their share price target wasn't a lot higher - like a lot of these notes are. I think there is a possibility, now that the groundwork has been laid in the US... Will one of the companies over there put a note out post JPM?

Personally I can't help but think that this looks more and more like ARWR or dicerna as time passes. The list of current assets/targets grows each quarter... Very similar story in their cases. As with them deals are coming.

[kreature] 09/1/2020 23:11

Someone probably looking for shorters stops today at 400? I didn't have any stops on today fortunately.

[peanut100] 09/1/2020 21:41

Keep shorting it down so I can buy more please thank you

[kreature] 09/1/2020 21:03

Rather gutted... Had I known that it was at 400 today, I would have opened another short position. With such quality publicity from Edison, Zak cafe etc, it's starting to feel like a placing is very near. imo - gla - atb

[1gw] 09/1/2020 20:27

The other big missing in the valuation for me, perhaps, is they appear to give no value to the platform itself. Their NPV is a sum-of-the-parts affair, valuing only the named assets/programs (SLN124, SLN360, SLN500, Takeda, QPI-1002, Onpattro). But surely there's a major component of value to be associated with the platform itself, the ability to keep churning out assets once they have identified a promising target (hence the Takeda agreement)?

And since SLN have said they have no interest in partnering SLN124 or SLN360 at present, we know their "multiple opportunities to create shareholder value through significant partnerships with large and established pharmaceutical companies that leverage the Company's proprietary GalNAc-siRNA platform" must involve assets not in the Edison list or the platform itself.

[1gw] 09/1/2020 20:17

What the Edison note does do quite well is lay out the assumptions behind the valuation. We can all argue about individual assumptions, but I think it is helpful to have someone like Edison produce a framework, in this case a bottom-up expected NPV approach.

What most surprised me about the valuation was their comment that SLN124 was the highest-value component of their valuation (accounting for £141m of the £345m valuation). My impression was that SLN360 would dominate an expected NPV valuation at the moment.

In the Edison model, SLN360 accounts for only £111m. Compare this with the $9.7bn just paid by Novartis for the Medicines Company, essentially for Inclisiran (and that's despite the royalty agreement already in place on Inclisiran through the license from Alnylam). My working assumption was that SLN could probably get $200m or so up-front (plus chunky milestones and royalties) on SLN360, if not immediately then after some initial Phase 1 studies.

The reason Edison have such a "low" value for SLN360 is largely their risk assumption, since they give it just a 5% probability of success. So unrisked the NPV would be £2.2bn and discounted to the launch date of 2028 instead of to today maybe an unrisked £6bn (12.5% discount rate) - at least as I understand the Edison model.

And that's one of the problems with early-stage biotech valuations. A small tweak of the assumptions (20% prob of success rather than 5% say) can have a huge impact on value. The impression I have picked up is that RNAi medicines appear to have a relatively high chance of success, although that is based on a limited dataset at present.

[hsm12] 09/1/2020 18:58

Is any research worth anything nowadays?