Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 30/8/2002 19:39

R.,
Yes, I do get your point, and it makes sense to show the charts side-by-side.

Nice Bearish rsing wedges on these ST charts:
dow: & s&p500:

[random] 30/8/2002 19:20

thanks energyi,

charts are in ...

perhaps you might understand the huge divergence between 30 year residual tbond future, and the 10 year note. perhaps I am mistaken, and the divergence does not exist, but 30 yr tbond has enjoyed a 6 month up trend. to me it seems very overbought, considering it could be picked up at 98.00 not so long ago (when I recommeded the long .... did I place the trade .... doh .... I did not).

at least now I have made the plunge ..... and the dow is rocketing .... so tbond might well have peaked .... my shorts will fry on opening, but then tbond should compensate .... that is the theory anyway ....

i'll have to try and track down the 30 year note yield .... perhaps that might shed some light.

[random] 30/8/2002 18:47

got caught by an evil spike up in tbond.

luckily only £1 a pt ....

still short, but questioning my sanity.

it's purpose was a hedge, not a short term trade, but still ....

[energyi] 30/8/2002 18:26

thanks Snow.

CHARTS: for the header???

[snowmann] 30/8/2002 18:19

Basic info on P/C ratio`s .

[energyi] 30/8/2002 18:13

Kvu,
I'm not an expert a P/C ratios. It is merely something I look at
from time to time. Havent found it easy to get data, but I may be looking
in the wrong places

[kvu] 30/8/2002 17:55

Random

Great stuff. Just read the post here random and have found many of them very useful as a learning tool. I will re-read them all later with charts infront of me to compare comments to market movements.

Energyi

The stuff on put/call ratios. How do you interpret that data and where can I learn a bit more about the ratio implications. I remember it was a big topic last option closure time and people were hoping for the dow to fall on the back of it. Thanks in advance.

[energyi] 30/8/2002 17:44

Interesting posts, R.

I must visit more often. have you looked at Put/Call ratios?

[random] 30/8/2002 17:20

thanks .... I should follow my own advice!!!! would have saved me chucking loads of short profit.

went short sept tbond 110.60, awful timing, but seems limited range for it to rise, and it is a hedge for open shorts.

better timing for entry now .....

[random] 30/8/2002 17:20

thanks .... I should follow my own advice!!!! would have saved me chucking loads of short profit.

went short sept tbond 110.60, awful timing, but seems limited range for it to rise, and it is a hedge for open shorts.

better timing for entry now .....

[shezzalad] 30/8/2002 11:29

Just come across this thread.

Random, some great posts.

[adamh] 29/8/2002 23:57

interests posts Random,
Keep it up

[random] 29/8/2002 22:26

the rsi indicates that the equity markets are not yet oversold. would not be surprised if there is a reaction up in the next 2 days, before continuing with the downleg. the short term uptrend is now clearly broken on the ftse.

tbond is making the island at 112 not look so isolated. must be a good short over 112 though, which could signal the next technical rally on the equity markets. A higher tbond high would be very bearish for equities .... with no clear tbond downtrend, stocks are exposed.

this tbond analysis suggests there is only a couple of hundred points short term downside on the dow.

[theape] 29/8/2002 12:19

been playing with mas

.

[djalan] 29/8/2002 12:15

rdj
Just had a look at DWV on Prophetjava, the url is above
It looks promising, small spread as well

I wonder why the shares started to fall around 5/6/02

Just out of interest a study that I use
Triangular MA 34
Exponential MA 34
These give all the correct buy sell signals for the last 12 months & more
Last buy signal at 16/8 02

When Tr line goes below Exp-- buy signal
If Exp goes below Exp sell

My lower study with the above is Relative Momentum indicator (20, 5) this is no indication

Stochastic Momentum Indicator (21, 3) confirms the ma buy signals above

Please note I am not an investment expert
Just trying to use charts as an extra tool

Bedtime for djal

[thepublisher] 29/8/2002 09:38

Thanks,

Will now have to see whether any of the Updata defaults match, or can be made to match.

Tony

[djalan] 29/8/2002 09:28

Pub

Triangular

Triangular moving averages place the majority of the weight on the middle portion of the price series. They are actually double-smoothed simple moving averages. The periods used in the simple moving averages varies depending on if you specify an odd or even number of time periods.

The following steps explain how to calculate a 12-period triangular moving average.

Add 1 to the number of periods in the moving average (e.g., 12 plus 1 is 13).

Divide the sum from Step #1 by 2 (e.g., 13 divided by 2 is 6.5).

If the result of Step #2 contains a fractional portion, round the result up to the nearest integer (e.g., round 6.5 up to 7).

Using the value from Step #3 (i.e., 7), calculate a simple moving average of the closing prices (i.e., a 7-period simple moving average).

Again using the value from Step #3 (i.e., 7) calculate a simple moving average of the moving average calculated in Step #4 (i.e., a moving average of a moving average).

Hope this helps
djal

[thepublisher] 29/8/2002 08:55

DJ

What is a triangular moving average? Does it have another name?

Tony

[rdj20] 28/8/2002 23:31

djalan,

no I haven't traded DWV before. Opened up strong this morning gapping up and now the chart signal looks even stronger.

[djalan] 28/8/2002 23:28

ape /zza et al
Glad you like prophet java

Here is a site that helps with the technical stuff



I do not pay to any package

Not easy to save a chart for putting on here, to do this you must email it to yourself
Then put it through an art package to convert it to gif
Send it to your own website, then copy the url to show here
I've done it before but it's a lot of work and it does not update

Tema 55 is a good sell indicator,I usually have sma 30 with it
Tomorrow I will copy out a few of my combination studies

On Pr/java there is a moving average which changes value in retro
ie it's value changes perhaps for 2 or 3 days previous
This makes it look the holy grail of MAs if crossed with say 30 day SMA
Until I realised it changes the graph line after the event

rdj, your TWV looks good, have you traded it before?

god luck
djal

[rdj20] 28/8/2002 12:08

nice high volume reversal- this simple m.a. catches most of the moves on this stock with just a couple of narrow whipsaws. Long from today.

[zzaxx99] 28/8/2002 08:07

- djalan/ape

Just had a look at that prophetfinance site - looks absolutely brilliant - thanks for the pointer.

Do you know if it possible to save a snapshot (to include in posts) like you can with (eg) stockpoint charts?

[theape] 27/8/2002 23:19

Djalan,

am now using this site.(prophetfinance)

haven't fully got to grips with it yet, but the range of indicators available looks great from what I've tried so far, and 10pm suits a nightbird like me.

much quicker than on here to scan through my favourite list of charts.

haven't used TEMA before ( been a simple ma boy). but shall give it a go.

I was thinking of splashing out on a package, but shan't bother now.

do you know of anywhere that will search for particular criteria (i.e. alert me to shares where certain criteria are met). ?

anyway thankyou very much for this pointer. I shall be playing with it and trying to optimise a few indicators for a while I think.

many thanks

Andy

[random] 27/8/2002 16:42

so the weakness of tbond is still driving the equity markets up ....

longs doing well, shorts not so ..... just better make sure I have enough margin till the top. maybe a tbond short would be better, and just go the whole hog ..... tbond short,equity long ! hmmmmmmm I think not. might work, but very very risky.

[djalan] 27/8/2002 00:01

theape
here is the url



Prophet is free
They update London prices at 10 pm each evening

It takes a little patience to get into at first but is well worth while
Values can be altered on most studies, eg macd
I have about 10 seperate studies which I have saved and now just need to
click on

eg upper studies sma 30 TEMA 55, Lower studies Varoon indicator(25)

Another good point about Prophet java charts is that they can be read in

weekly
values, or monthly if required
Weekly and monthly values are advocated by John Murphy
London shares need to be entered like this
GB:WUN

Do you see the relevance of the WUN chart?

Been trading shares since the late sixties, made a fair bit but then would

come along a howler for a large loss

I started to learn about ta at the start of this year
Since then my profit has improved a lot

If you try Prophet and get stuck let me know, I had great difficulty at first
Good luck
djal