Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[djalan] 26/8/2002 20:57

theape
I have never followed bios, they look a tad risky
Just had a quick look at your shares

They are all ma positive and could be buys

Except for XEN they are all good on the weekly charts as well

Pro if you was following, the buy sign was 25/7/02

ACM up 26% since it went 26 sma positive

All in my opinion
No advice intended
Good luck
djal

[theape] 26/8/2002 20:00

Thankyou djal.

I shall give it ago.

likewise only been TAing a year (Mr Murphy), and greatly improved my trading.

I shall have a go and see how I get on and let you know.

fwiw, I have my eye on several bios at the moment that you may want to have a look at as they are ALMOST (but not quite yet) giving me a buy signal (but all within a few p). you may want to have a look on your system and see if they give you a buy over the following week. XEN, PRO, ACM, SPA, all look near to having a "golden cross" type effect if they nudge up a few p.

many thanks

andy

[theape] 26/8/2002 01:25

djalan.

my interest in this area is recently re-ignited after reviewing my duff trades and the mas.

I shall have a look at prophetfinance.

I am particularly interested in using ma's as a filter.

i.e. only long if short med & long ma are bullish, and only short if all three are bearish, with a stop on the short term m.a.

sounds simple, and would lead to not trading most of the time.

particularly interested in the smaller cap stuff.

[baffled] 25/8/2002 23:23

have just discovered this thread and spent 20 mins. reading it.
very interesting .

however, i have to say that the best indicator i have ever found is 'if it's going up buy it!! if it's going down sell it!!'
:)))

[djalan] 25/8/2002 23:18

theape
I use sma as main tool for buying stocks
Time to sell I use another ma, have you come across TEMA
Triple exponential moving average, found on Prophetfinance.com

WUN 21day sma this year
Bought April below 50p sold over 80p June
Bought again August 60p & 61p still holding and watching

Also done well with FOG and 30day sma look at chart over last 15 months
the sma is a clear buy

Recently bought IPR as 26 day sma went below price line
I do not feel happy with IPR

TEMA gives a much clearer sell signal I never use TEMA as a buy signal
dyor
good luck
djal

[theape] 25/8/2002 21:44

is anyone using MAs solely as a trading system ?

[random] 25/8/2002 12:31

investtech sell pivot on dow .....

tbond rose into holiday session, which is normal movement, since most traders are short and close. This should normally lead to a rise in equities. A fall implies traders are closing equity longs, and going neutral or short.

so many influences combine to make this bear rally possibly briefer than the last.

tbond does not look like it wants to crash quite yet. perhaps an equity crash is a way for the markets to resync?

ie. either: equities crash, then rally, then and tbond crashes after spike up.

or. tbond crashes, and equities rally strongly.

.... whatever, large moves are promised because of the potential energy in both tbond highs, and dow highs.

[random] 24/8/2002 10:42

ok, so the downside is being realised now .....


a little early with the trend reversal, but nearby.

energyi, I have been thinking about mooncylces, and there is a strong point to them, not just chance.

Indeed, yesterday was critical, a full moon, and a friday after a sustained rally.

this magnifies the significance of the full moon, or any other of the short term early reversal signals.
1 = no signal

ie. give 2 for full moon reversal potential.
2 for sustained low volatility rally
2 for medium term rising bearish wedge
2 for a friday after sustained rises followed by a holiday

gives a signal strength of 16 for fridays full moon being a BEAR moon.

ie. a very low risk short, a very high risk long.

this left me holding shorts over the break, and ready to sell again into weakness.

short term downside estimate, 50% of 7700 -> 9000 = 8350.

ftse estimate 50% of 3750 to 4450 -> 4050.

the ftse estimate seems plausible. seems unlikely to retest below 4000 right now.

however, if the dow tanks below 8350, it increases the probability of the dow being in the long term downtrend, as suggested by high valuations, and could drag the ftse under 4000K again. each bear rally gives the impression of a bull market, but the rug is quickly pulled. till valuations in the us are realistic, it is hard to say the bear market is over.

thus the recent uptrend has been against the principle trend, which is down.
my own feeling is that it has been a very short term rally, short cover, and short term longs. this makes a retest of the lows quite possible.

[random] 22/8/2002 12:54

4300 seems to form the lower point of the rising wedge on the ftse.

investtech is calling more negative signals on stocks and indices, from watch during the rally.

[random] 22/8/2002 12:34

Closing financial futures commentary from cbot ...... my gut says we could be ready for a small downleg, but tbond is still high, so there is still some buying of equities. The market is still out of phase, since equities and tbond both need to fall.



Closing Financial Futures Market Report for Wednesday, 8/21/2002
Debt futures finished the session lower on a day when traders concluded that comments from Federal Reserve officials probably mean a reduced likelihood for a rate cut when policy-holders meet again in a little more than a month.

Yet, prices didn't fall any further in part because so many market participants still have a preference for fixed-income investments due to uncertainty about what to expect from other asset classes, sources said.

Sep 10-year notes settled down 4 ticks at 112-19.5 andSep Treasury bonds lost 9 ticks at 109-25.

Bill O'Grady, director of futures research at A.G. Edwards, cited remarks such as those made by Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero and San Francisco Fed President Robert Parry.

"Both were suggesting, 'Gee, I don't think we're going to ease any more,'" said O'Grady.

"These guys go out to the hinterlands and make these statements for a reason. They are making them to dampen the enthusiasm for another rate cut.

"That certainly doesn't help. And the recovery in equities doesn't help (debt futures) much either."

Santomero said in a speech Wednesday morning that current monetary policy is "appropriately supportive of the recovery process." He added: "At some point, prudence will dictate that we begin moving monetary policy back to a more neutral stance."

He said he envisions that while the economy may not grow as fast as once forecast, it will "gradually accelerate" during the remainder of the year and avoid a double-dip recession. He also said stocks are "beginning to stabilize" and he sees no signs of a housing bubble.

According to news reports, San Francisco Fed President Robert Parry has made comments in an interview suggesting there is no urgency to do anything with interest rates and that the 1.75% federal-funds rate is stimulative. Parry said the economy is undergoing a "modest expansion." He is scheduled to give a speech Wednesday at 1445 CT (1945 GMT).

Yet another Fed speaker, Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow, said longer-term economic prospects are good, although the economy is in a "rough patch." Real gross domestic product should increase during the next few quarters, he said. Moskow also said that he does not believe a housing bubble exists and that he does not anticipate a double-dip recession.

O'Grady said a bearish "island reversal" chart formation is starting to form on charts such as Sep bonds.

"That could be a problem going forward," he said. "If you look at the daily charts, that pop to 112 and change (112-12 on Aug. 14) looks pretty isolated. That's a bearish signal."

Yet, he noted, a couple of factors seem to be keeping the debt market from heading even lower. Treasuries drew support at times of the day from equities, when the latter was in weaker territory before recovering.

"There is an underlying pressure to buy debt," O'Grady said. "And I think a lot of it is being fostered by fears that we are going to do what Japan did."

Bonds are about the only asset class in Japan to provide a return for several years now, and there are fears of a similar scenario here, O'Grady explained.

"It's hard to make this market break down because so many people are betting on the yield (which moves inversely to the price) continuing to fall."

Nevertheless, while debt futures finished softer, the Sep 10-year notes and Sep Treasury bonds remained above their 20-day moving averages, as they have for most of the summer, said Holger Laubmeier, director of research at Opportunities in Options. For Wednesday, that average passed through 107-28 for the bonds and 111-24.6 for the 10-year notes.

In fact, since June, the Sep 10-year notes have not closed below that 20-day moving average, said Laubmeier.

"That's a pretty steady bull run in any market," he said. "There have been no major dips along the way for five months."

Therefore, technically, some might see Wednesday's price action as a "normal" correction in a bullish trend, he said. "In terms of the big trend, it still seems to be in effect," he said.

Nevertheless, he said, market watchers can't help but wonder how much lower yields - which move inversely to the price - can go. The yield on 10-year notes got as low as 3.959% earlier this month, although currently they are around 4.19%.

"There is no significant return on investment in interest-rate capital any more," Laubmeier pointed out.

While much of the support in notes and bonds this summer has been due to investors' reluctance to put money in stocks, there has also been a tendency to favor government debt over even high-grade corporate debt due to some of the accounting malfeasance that has occurred, he continued.

"Even some companies that were considered very high grade had major revisions in their debt ratings," Laubmeier said. "So that creates a concern about which companies are really good. So you've had a great deal of money flowing into Treasuries."

The market is getting little economic data this week. There were no major reports today, and the only data Thursday will be the 0730 CT (1230 GMT) release of weekly initial jobless claims. The forecast is for little change, with the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by OsterDowJones around 385,000, compared to 388,000 reported for the previous week.

[random] 22/8/2002 12:23

UKX

Investtech autocommentary.

Negative candidate (20 Aug 2002) [Auto] Help
Has broken the ceiling of the falling trend, which indicates a slower initial falling rate.
Support and resistance: The index is testing the resistance at 4440 points. This should give a negative reaction, but an upward breakthough of 4440 points means a positive signal.

[random] 22/8/2002 12:22

DJX

Investtech autocommentary.


Sector: Indices

Negative candidate (20 Aug 2002) [Auto] Help
Has broken the ceiling of the falling trend, which indicates a slower initial falling rate. Has had a strong fall after the negative signal from a head and shoulders formation at the break down through the support at 9858. The objective at 8954 is now met, but the formation signals further development in the same direction.
DJX

[hi-there] 19/8/2002 02:04

How about weakness alround. We are still in a bear market.

[random] 19/8/2002 01:36

since tbond at bottom of short term range, a further tbond fall would supply a large short term upside to equities. A tbond rise would favour equity shorts.
it will be interesting to see effect of this at 1:20pm, and take a position accordingly.

ftse looks a bit toppy, though a short term uptrend is forming. In this situation, it seems safer to short equity into fading strength, or short into weakness, keep an eye out for tbond weakness, and cover equity shorts accordingly.

[guinea pig says] 17/8/2002 00:25

I am well thanks.
You watching the dax today? What the hell was the 100point spike about on the future - rogue trade or options malarky?
gps

[velocity] 17/8/2002 00:03

Blimey GPS you are like the oracle!! Many thanks for that - it is exactly what I was after.

I'm well - hope you are too.

Cheers
V

[velocity] 16/8/2002 13:21

No I only trade the FTSE indices, dax is too much of a wild ride for me! Good luck!

[random] 16/8/2002 13:06

tbond is us treasury 30 year bond.
it has an inverse relation to the equity market.

ie falling tbond -> rising equity markets, as explained earlier on the thread

[random] 16/8/2002 13:05

tbond is us treasury 30 year bond.
it has an inverse relation to the equity market.

ie falling tbond -> rising equity markets, as explained earlier on the thread

[guinea pig says] 16/8/2002 11:49

Hi Velocity, how are you doing?
The java chart from the link below may be what you are after

cheers
gps

[velocity] 16/8/2002 11:19

Anyone know a provider of end of day UKX futures charts (ie similar format & functionality to Sharescope)? Tried Liffe/ino.com - futuresource.com have them but can't draw lines or zoom close enough in.
Tia

[patel investor] 16/8/2002 09:34

what is a tbond please
i am leerning
thankyou in advance

[dr darkstar] 15/8/2002 22:34

I have to agree with moonblue re the Dow. Perfect trend line with higher lows and above resistance at close.... could hit 9400 ... even 9700 AND fast
And the FTSE could move towards 4800 fast too

[moonblue] 15/8/2002 22:08

the dow looks like its on its way up to me

[random] 15/8/2002 21:39

optically tbond is eyeing 108.