Shoe Zone Share Discussion Threads

[tomboyb] 09/1/2019 09:41

Excellent results -

In a real tough environment those are simply excellent -

[clocktower] 09/1/2019 09:16

Beauty is the short length of leases and the rent savings puts them in such a strong position in the current market.

[winnings1] 09/1/2019 08:53

My comment on the Results out today is simple: WOW!

[winnings1] 09/1/2019 08:50

Results out today (RNS). WOW!

[podgyted] 09/1/2019 08:18

Much better than expected, and that dividend!

finCapp

"Alongside better-than-expected FY18 results, management has also
delivered a step-change in confidence/clarity around SHOE’s strategic growth
ambition. This is a significant moment for the SHOE investment case, with SHOE
entering into a distinctive new phase of growth which, in turn, should have important
positive long-term implications for sentiment, forecasts and valuation. TP raised to
230p to reflect the opportunity and eye-catching c11% total (incl. special) yield."

They have increased their FY 2019 forecasts but are still way too cautious IMO - but difficult to be too bullish due to Bxxxxt .

[edmundshaw] 09/1/2019 08:07

A very good Wednesday morning fellow shareholders! :-)

Results very satisfactory. new in-house store equipment is an unexpected bonus. And good to see the online contribution growing, while rent-starved landlords are clearly scrambling over each other for Shoezone to use their properties!

[podgyted] 06/1/2019 12:33

Final accounts due out this week. Thoughts:-

1) As M points out above it was an excellent TU in October which will be reflected. "The new financial year has started well" gives some confidence. This was before the retail disaster that was November but the Next TU gives some confidence that December was good.

2) The announcement of the special dividend and "a further 14 B Box openings" suggests , at least at the time, a high confidence level in the future.

3) Looking at Stocko this has a stockrank of 98 and a 2019 PER of 10.9 and yield of 5.9% (without specials). However, the forecast profit for 2019 is less than that for 2018 as yet to be updated. FinnCap said "SHOE has announced that (1) revenue has increased +1.8% to c£161m, with pleasing growth across all distribution channels, and (2) FY18 PBT is expected to be in excess of £11m, well ahead of our FY18 estimate of £10.1m and indeed our FY19 forecast of £10.2m (we will use the full details of the FY18 results, to be announced on 9 January 2019, to update our FY19 PBT forecasts where there is clearly now upward pressure)." So if all is well on outlook the forecasts will be raised significantly.


All-in-all the risk seems to be to the upside, but let's see what Wednesday brings.

[topvest] 15/10/2018 21:04

Yes, a well run business this one. It's not really something I want to hold, but its a good company.

[edmundshaw] 15/10/2018 08:31

c.£4m excess cash, 50 million shares. That is an 8p special or thereabouts. So the same as two years ago, after a hiatus in specials last year due in part I think to expansion.

Very satisfactory! :-)

[masurenguy] 15/10/2018 07:56

Excellent year-end update !

The Group is pleased to report that it has traded well in the second half of the year and expects to report revenues for the 52 week period of approximately £161 million (2017: £157.8 million), growth of 1.8%. This improvement is due to strong performance across the business, with both physical (Big Box and traditional Shoe Zone stores) and digital channels demonstrating growth allied with the completion of the loss-making store rationalisation programme. The Board now expects to report a full year Profit before Tax for the year ahead of market expectations and in excess of £11.0m. This improvement is driven by a stronger revenue and margin performance from the spring/summer ranges as well as benefiting from progress achieved through the further development of the Group's foreign exchange hedging policy.

The Group continues to demonstrate strong cash conversion and closed the year with an approximate net cash balance of £15.7m (2017: £11.8m). Given the strength of the closing cash position, the Board anticipates that £4m of excess cash will be distributed as a Special Dividend to shareholders in March 2019, subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting. The Group ended the year with 492 stores, having opened 16 and closed 20, in line with the Board's stated strategy. Within the 16 store openings, 10 were the continued roll out of the Big Box format, with latest format Shoe Zone stores forming the remainder. We ended the year with 19 Big Box stores. Shoe Zone will announce Final Results for the 52 weeks to 29 September 2018 on Wednesday, 9 January 2019.

Nick Davis, Chief Executive of Shoe Zone PLC, commented: "The Group has performed well through the year with a particularly strong performance in the second half. Our strategy of growth through Big Box expansion and online channels allied with excellence in the operations of the core Shoe Zone estate provides us with a clear path for the future. I am particularly pleased that the continued strong cash conversion has enabled the Board to outline its intention to propose its third Special Dividend. The new financial year has started well and there are a further 14 Big Box openings planned. We look forward to updating shareholders on progress at the time of our Final Results in January."

[cwa1] 15/10/2018 07:37

These days I think it comes dangerously close to a decent update!

[mister md] 15/10/2018 07:07

do I detect a positive trading update ?

[fenners66] 28/9/2018 11:36

Might be held in treasury - but that means they cannot lose a simple majority vote

[masurenguy] 28/9/2018 10:37

Thanks guys - you're right, since the shares are being held in Treasury it wont affect the Smith family shareholding percentage. However I'm still rather perplexed why they have initiated this very small share buyback. If they were looking to buy a more significant volume - say circa 1m shares - to support the shareprice and increase the yield it would make more sense.

[edmundshaw] 28/9/2018 10:31

Mas, as they are not cancelling the shares, the Smith holding %age will not change

[ed 123] 27/9/2018 13:34

Hi Masurenguy.

The announcement of the start of the share buyback included,

"Any Ordinary Shares acquired as a result of the Buyback Programme will be held in treasury and used to meet future LTIP exercise requirements."

Maybe it's a simple as that?

The company has surplus cash and this would avoid issuing more shares.

Even if the Smith family have ambitions, there are protections for minority share holders.

I don't like share buybacks, but this one is small. Also, the bought shares will not be cancelled. And anyway, they'll struggle to execute it fully, imo.

(Edit: Just seen a 25,000 share trade go through. Maybe they will get to their target after all?)

[masurenguy] 27/9/2018 12:38

The company is engaged in a share buyback of up to 75,000 shares (0.15% of shares in issue) over a 3 week period ending 12/10/18. I can't see the logic behind this in view of the very small amount of shares involved, circa £125,000 in value, and the limited timescale applied. The current fiscal year end is effectively tomorrow and the pre-close year end trading update is due on 24th October.

The only obvious significance is that it will increase the Smith family holding from 50.0% to 50.1% giving them a majority holding. Could this be the precursor for some future planned corporate action ?

[micos] 15/8/2018 13:01

Anyone got their dividend today? I'm with I-web and no sign of it so far.

[masurenguy] 25/6/2018 16:57

Good to see a further rise on a minuscule volume, especially on a big down day in the markets. Shareprice is now up 25% over the past 3 months.

[podgyted] 17/6/2018 00:44

Looking good.

Thought it might drift in the aftermath of the interims but this doesn't seem to be happening.

General retail sales rising after Q1 problems caused by the Beast from the East.

Trajectory for Shoezone looks good after years of re-positioning the store estate and the current expansion of the BigBox concept.

Temptation is to add here.

PT

[davebowler] 25/5/2018 14:34

Good progress; much more to come | finnCap, 24 May
Paid Access
"Against a turbulent retail sector backdrop, SHOE has delivered very encouraging H1FY18 results, demonstrating that management continues to make strong strategic, financial and operational progress. This reinforces the equity story, the key underappreciated elements of which we revisit here. TP increased to 210p..."

[topvest] 24/5/2018 18:03

Yes, it has to be said. Shoezone management are a savvy bunch. Not a holder now, but watch with interest.

[masurenguy] 24/5/2018 11:15

Good summary boonkoh.

[boonkoh] 24/5/2018 11:02

Super quiet trading volume this morning. Looks like not many people following SHOE...I'm really excited about Shoe Zone results today. It looks like they could increase PBT by ~20% in two years without doing anything.Average lease length is 2.2 years. So that means half the stores can be renegotiated in rent within the next two years (approximately).Average rent reduction achieved is 22%.Rent makes up 12% of turnover.So they're going to see another circa 1.3% of turnover drop straight to the PBT. So extra £2m, compared to £9.5m last year PBT.On top of that only 5% of stores are loss making, suggesting they have a business model that works and as rents get cheaper they have more opportunity to pick up new locations which couldn't worked before.

[podgyted] 24/5/2018 09:17

Very positive buy note from finnCap - TP 210.