Shire Share Discussion Threads

[pete160] 07/5/2018 09:52

"if you were a Takeda shareholder, would you vote for it?"
Yes, I would.

As several people here have commented, they are likely getting SHP on the cheap (the Baxalta purchase is in for virtually nothing).

In addition:
The exchange rate is quite favourable for Takeda to make a foreign purchase
The Japanese banks and government are willing their firms to expand and diversify
The Japanese can borrow the money very cheaply,
They are paying a large proportion in stock rather than cash
We know that SHP creates a lot of cash
They will already have a list of willing and cash rich buyers to buy the parts they don't want
Takeda themselves need to get bigger or get swallowed themselves

Takeda just need to accelerate plans to unlock SHP shareholder value, which the SHP bod have failed miserably to do, and the stock price will rebound very nicely.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if, once the dust has settled and the surplus bits flogged at good prices, Takeda don't split up the larger entity along the lines that SHP should have done years ago.

[dwinn78] 07/5/2018 09:39

Imo the takeda price has held up well considering the size of the deal there attempting to pull off and ill be amazed if the board is surprised about the recent drops . 80/20 its gonna happen imo .

[scfc1] 07/5/2018 09:19

The formal bid may well still happen - and I agree with you that if they pulled out the Takeda share price would almost certainly rise - but if you were a Takeda shareholder, would you vote for it?

[pete160] 07/5/2018 09:15

Sorry, but I read the slight weakening of the Takeda share price as supporting evidence that the bid will happen (otherwise the price of Takeda would be recovering).

One thing is for sure, the Japanese M&A system is far less leaky than ours or the US.

[scfc1] 07/5/2018 08:56

I think you may have misunderstood what Form 8.3 disclosures (which are required on a business daily basis during a bid period under U.K. Takeover Panel rules) are showing.

[scfc1] 07/5/2018 08:53

Indeed. If you owned Takeda shares, rather than Shire's, would you want it to go through? I know I certainly wouldn't!

[dealy] 07/5/2018 08:48

Takeda shareholders are basically saying they don't want this to go through. This is being reflected in the Takeda share price

[philanderer] 07/5/2018 08:47

Takeda in japan off again monday. -1.7%

[aps12345] 07/5/2018 06:14

Folks there are numerous 8.3 filings showing on Bloomberg that were lodged end of last week from major shareholders holding positions on behalf of Takeda or buying on behalf of Takeda.

[scfc1] 06/5/2018 23:38

What have you seen/read to suggest that Barclays are buying Shire shares on behalf of Takeda???

[sampsun] 06/5/2018 19:06

Tempted to buy more. You can see it’s about to happen

[aps12345] 06/5/2018 16:24

Did none see the recent for filed by Barclays on behalf of Takeda - they are mopping up shares on both side of the atlantic

[dealy] 05/5/2018 20:30

Still worrying that Takeda shares have fallen so much since expressing interest in shire

[montyhedge] 05/5/2018 19:27

3 trillion yen in place with the Japanese banks. They can borrow money at 0.34% Japanese companies. But may want extension on Tuesday for more due diligence. That's fine shows still interested.

[pete160] 05/5/2018 19:11

Dealy, I agree.
The market is already discounting that the deal will probably not proceed, otherwise SHP would be trading nearer to the bid value.

If Takeda pull out (and I don't think they will) of course SHP will fall in the short term but I don't believe that it will fall to the multi-year lows seen prior to the bid speculation.

By talking with Takeda, SHP has admitted that it is for sale.
They have also admitted on the price they are willing to accept

If however, a formal bid does not materialise and the SHP BOD do nothing to unlock shareholder value pdq they will either be on the receiving end of another bid or they will /should be on the receiving end of a P45.

The exchange rate is more favourable to a bid for SHP than it has ever been, interest rates throughout the world are still at historically low levels for bidders to borrow and the silence of politicians over any loss of jobs, economic value, etc has been very telling.

Anyone that believes that SHP is good value has a clear shot to buy it and the best shot that they will probably ever get.

My guess for what it's worth, is that Takeda has the backing of shareholders in both companies and also the Japanese government and banks to pull off this deal. They will already have been approached by other parties to flip the parts of SHP that they don't want.

[dealy] 05/5/2018 18:51

Ftse is up 10% in the last 5 weeks so shire would probably have moved up to 3600 anyway. The bid interest is present even if it doesn't work with Takeda. Personally I think Takeda should pull out unless its share price recovers next week. The drop there suggests it's own shareholders will not approve the deal

[ali47fish] 05/5/2018 15:03

if takeda has fallen so much following its approach, and given how the takeover is structured with many shares in takeda for shareholders to inherit it is not a good offer- is this likely to change and tye question arises whether it makes sense to sell now with whatever small profit made? could the the bid fall through ten we get a disastyous retrace anyone with insight please!

[nigelpm] 05/5/2018 14:14

Would also expect a bit more of an update on progress etc..

[montyhedge] 05/5/2018 07:09

My guess for Tuesday is Takeda asking for more time to do due diligence. That would be good means their serious.

[ruethewhirl] 05/5/2018 00:11

Not many news stories about it lately either, everything seems to be a week old.

[dwinn78] 04/5/2018 23:27

Itll go through unless theres another bidder imo . Wait and see

[fangorn2] 04/5/2018 23:11

All about the cheap money

@NigelPM

Japanese have cheap money, and the softly softly catchy monkey approach.
They dont make acquisitions as you say absent serious consideration

Japanese shareholders similarly.

75/25% it doesnt go through imo.

[nigelpm] 04/5/2018 22:02

Not everyone can raise funds at 0.34%! Expect Japanese to get it but may take longer than we expect. Deadline extension most likely but could be fully agreed terms in Tuesday RNS.

[ruethewhirl] 04/5/2018 21:58

After everything that's been said, surprised no other parties have come forward yet.

[philanderer] 04/5/2018 21:15

Closing stateside pretty much the same as London close.