Shire Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 23/4/2018 17:11

Bit of a rise now in US

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 16:44

FT said they have increased cash to £21 and £26 in Takeda shares. The board surely will have to put that to shareholders, thats acceptable to me. £47 a share.
Still a long way from the £57 they were in 2015, but £47 acceptable to me.

[toffeeman] 23/4/2018 16:39

Looking bleak if the price of the ADRs is any indicator

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 16:20

But directors this time surely have to put it to the vote of shareholders and not just reject the next offer. If they did put it to the vote I think acceptable for me, don't know about other shareholders.
We own the company shareholders, they manage the company for shareholders and get well paid, so put it to shareholder vote.

[scfc1] 23/4/2018 16:15

Answers on a postcard on how they can maintain these 2 things when you compare the dividend yields as of now (of the 2 separate entities) as well as the huge debt Takeda would need to take on.I don't disagree that this is seen as a good deal for many Shire PI shareholders who see this as a lifeline after the dismal share price performance over the last 12 months or so but this won't be seen in the same light by most Takeda's shareholders imo. It is important to note that many big funds hold shares in both and also can't simply offload a few % of either shareholding without massively affecting the share price (eg if they didn't fancy Takeda's shares, for example). I think BlackRock own about 6-7% of both stocks so they are interested in the best value for them as a whole. If you owned shares in Takeda, not Shire, would you be hoping for this to fail so the recent decline would most likely reverse? I'm sure many of them are. A lot of factors to be taken into account before this is settled one way or another. ATB, Scfc

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 16:13

If they offered £21 cash and £27 in Takeda shares, I would accept. Directors would have to put a improved cash element to shareholders surely.

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 16:04

Ok let wait and see, I wish it was GSK bidding, lol.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 16:03

I don't expect a rush for the exit with Takeda shares, provided they stay within the two constraints they suggested - i.e. dividend maintained, credit rating maintained.

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 15:58

romeike
Ok imagine Takeda won, surely rush for exit in Takeda shares, for one tax rate would go up.
Any other company no problem. Wednesday all will be revealed. Keep a eye on the share price, because share prices talks.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 15:35

@ Montyhedge - I am very happy to take Takeda stock under the right deal. Hopefully everything will work out well for us one way or another.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 15:33

Takeda's current planned borrowing could, if they were inclined (which they clearly aren't) stretch another basis point to x5 - which would be about £9 / Shire share. I was using this to suggest that an extra £1 or so is feasible on the formal offer. I would not expect too much further improvement on the existing indicative bid however, if any.

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 15:30

My view bid rejected on new offer, no one wants Takeda shares. Everyone hoping a new bidder will come in, doubt it. Hope is not an investment strategy.

[redtom1] 23/4/2018 15:30

Monty, what a load of tosh.
This will not be rejected because nobody wants Takeda shares.
Most investors will very happily accept £21 plus Takeda shares (initially valued at £26).
So I guess you would rather have SHP shares worth £33-34 rather than the offer? Muppet.

[scfc1] 23/4/2018 15:22

romeike, on what basis do you think they could raise their offer by a further £9?

PS. Form 8.3s issued on a daily basis states the holdings of any fund/entity that owns 1% or more of both Takeda and Shire shares. ATB, Scfc

[justiceforthemany] 23/4/2018 15:15

The key to this saga is just how greedy is Ornskov?

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 15:15

No way will this be accepted, bid will be rejected on new offer, no one wants Takeda shares. Could see share price 3650p this week.

[philanderer] 23/4/2018 14:53

No leaks stateside either then by the look of the shareprice.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 14:07

They could raise by as much as another £9 if Takeda wanted to go all out crazy for it, but of course they won't do this given the CEO's statements so far. An extra £1 or £2 however would be a relatively small price to pay to secure this deal and acquire Shire assets at a knockdown price. It is clear that the temporary alignment of Yen strength, Shire weakness and zero interest rates are affording Takeda a very limited opportunity - I can't see the CEO backing out if he thinks the big investors are on his side. I wonder how many of them also own major stakes in Takeda.

[demo trader] 23/4/2018 14:00

Marks rejected £9.1b bid offer in 2004, now it is worth £4.6b.

[philanderer] 23/4/2018 13:56

Thrashing out one more improved cash content with the offer is my guess.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 13:49

One of the leakiest bid periods in recent memory and yet all of a sudden those "with knowledge of the matter" are models of discretion.

[philanderer] 23/4/2018 12:35

Yes, that'd be the best way to flush out any other potential bidder(s).


edit:

no rumours on Alphaville..

"...There was a board meeting over the weekend I believe, but we haven't heard any suggestion as to its outcome."

[romeike] 23/4/2018 12:18

Well even if Shire accept a formal offer the fun doesn't stop there.

[mbmiah] 23/4/2018 12:06

The suspense is killing me!Fake rumours, yes that's what we need here lol

[romeike] 23/4/2018 10:48

It is very noticeable the lack of resistance from the board. Astra Zeneca threw a right strop when Pfizer tried to buy it out, with the CEO giving statements and presentations against the deal. Not a sausage from FO. I suspect the next we will hear of is a formal bid on Wednesday.