Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 23/4/2018 10:43

Obviously still trying to thrash a deal out.... acceptable to the big boys ;-)

Morning everyone.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 10:14

-Can’t see the Board accepting such a rag tag offer

I think if it was just up to the board Takeda would have been sent packing already. The reality is that, as per some public statements, various fund managers are pretty furious with the current CEO and the recent appalling share price performance.

Shire ditched it's long-held, successful strategy of manageable, strategic acquisitions and threw the kitchen sink at Baxalta. They then split ii opinion down the middle with a botched announcement during an investor call of a badly explained review into a possible NBU spin off. This then got kicked into the long grass at the end of the year with a vague deadline of H2 2018 and some fluff about separating what are essentially already two separate divisions - further extending the period of uncertainty and further damaging the share price. The board just lost credibility with many, hence the likely support for this bid despite Shire's real value being in the high 50s.

[romeike] 23/4/2018 09:45

More than happy to take Takeda stock, not least because they pay a far better dividend than we are getting under the current regime. At first I thought the stock being USD denominated was an unwanted risk, but on reflection it could be opportune for UK-based shareholders given the inevitable slide in GBP. For big holders the large equity component will be more tax efficient - allowing us to offload in batches rather than take a huge capital gains hit. There is little point getting a payout for most of it to go to the grasping tax man to spend on "international development" and tax breaks for corporations.

I'm not worried about debt levels at post-deal Takeda - they have an ongoing divestment program and seem to have a reputation for caution. I believe amongst various divestments (looking at ophthalmology for starters), they will actually deliver the neuroscience spin off that the incumbent board has faffed around with and confused investors for nearly a year now. This will reduce debt levels to a modest level.

I am hoping Takeda sweeten the deal slightly more with a rise up to 48.50 but in the context of the absolutely shocking share price performance lately I will be very pleased for the latest announced bid to be accepted.

[ygor705] 23/4/2018 09:29

Can't see the Board accepting such a rag tag offer. Think they'll just sit it out and let shareholders kick any hostile bid at this level into touch.

[billytkid2] 23/4/2018 08:42

Board under big pressure here. Even with the inevitable drop in Takeda price the offer will still be worth £40+. Dropping back to low 30s will be on them if they don’t get a deal done.

[inki] 23/4/2018 08:38

Its all down to how much the CEO who has failed miserably wants to take his going away present or not. His alternative is milking the company further with excessive remuneration costs while his objective to achieve real shareholder returns is secondary.

[mbmiah] 23/4/2018 08:31

Anybody mentioned the huge debt levels aligned to shire stock? As holders we should think of ways to reduce this.....offloading onto takeda is a great way to do it IMO.

[redtom1] 23/4/2018 08:28

I would take Takeda shares every day of the week plus £21 in cash.
Without this deal we'll be sliding back to the low 30s.
Anyone not wanting this deal to happen is crazy.
Thinking that there is going to be a 'white knight' offering £50 in cash is fanciful!

[scfc1] 23/4/2018 08:25

Whether it happens or not, imo a lot of PIs will want the offer to be accepted which will result in the share price quickly rising to £42/£43+ so they can sell out at this price and not worry too much about Takeda's debt ballooned BS and the longer term. Fair enough, although less than 12 months ago this was trading at a price higher than the 4th Takeda offer. The bigger issue is with the big fund managers who own say 3%+ and won't have the same sell-out option...and of course it depends on their buy in price as well. No actual news as yet so the market remains unsure which way to go so share price still hovers in the high £38s, for now. ATB, Scfc1

[mbmiah] 23/4/2018 08:22

No leaks here then.

[demo trader] 23/4/2018 08:15

Then the question is who wants TO PAY 5000p+ for SHP?

[montyhedge] 23/4/2018 08:02

Must admit can't see it happening who wants Takeda shares. Cash element not great.

[karateboy] 23/4/2018 05:56

Takeda recovering some of its loses. Perhaps investors in Japan realising buying SHP ads value to shareholders. I have to go to work. Good luck to all holders.

[demo trader] 23/4/2018 05:24

It is not going to go up above 4500p unless new bidder comes in, i.e selling off below 4500p.

I hold BT, WPP, SHP TESCO, AA. and TLW (ALL are in profit)

I will add in WPP IF MONEY AVAILABLE.

[ruethewhirl] 22/4/2018 22:29

Interesting week ahead, results, div paid and Takeda deadline.

May also see high all cash offer from Pfizer.

:)

[suffersnofools] 22/4/2018 16:33

Indeed. Show me the money!

I wonder what price the we'll get on Shire in the open market if the offer is accepted. I'd much rather sell at say 4400p after a deal is agreed but not yet completed and not have money tied up for an extended period.

[romeike] 22/4/2018 16:24

No one cares, what we care about is getting the best return for our families. This means getting a deal that gives a good payout to Shire shareholders now, while not being too onerous for the combined entity.

[dwinn78] 22/4/2018 13:12

Can you prove that ?

[scfc1] 22/4/2018 12:51

mbmiah, thanks for the useful input. If only I'd known that when working on previous M&A deals, lol

[mbmiah] 22/4/2018 12:11

Scfc1 are you a shareholder? And are you still amazed at how somebody can buy something without having the capital? It's called borrowing my friend, not a new concept really nor is dilution lol. ATB

[scfc1] 22/4/2018 11:12

Karateboy, I wasn't suggesting that the advisers would ever announce any deal - 100% not - as always this will be done formally by the respective Boards. None of us actually know what has happened since the 3rd rejection...or what will happen now. We are all guessing based on our own past experiences/knowledge of similar matters. It does appear the discussions have been going on since Friday 13th...but none of us are privy to the facts. I was simply expressing an opinion. I was surmising that the 2 Boards could have made progress and effectively then made a joint announcement, much like was done on the sale of the oncology business. They are choosing this route which had me wondering how joined up it all was. Just my interpretation and I could of course be wrong. Until we hear Shire's formal response it is all opinions and guesswork. ATB, Scfc1

[podgyted] 22/4/2018 11:00

I'd be quite enjoying this normally, but my Shire shares are stuck in an account with Beaufort Securities - typical!

PT

[karateboy] 22/4/2018 08:14

Scfc , Yes I like any other share holders perhaps you as well hoping for a good deal. I agree Takeda is taking a lot of debts but that is already agreed by the Takeda board and its main financial backers and main share holders. Combined company will have sale of more than $30b and makes the combined company one of the 10 top Pharma company. The process as you know is: 1. advisers to trash out a fair offer. 2. That to be presented by Takeda to SHP board to consider. That is what happened. Advisers cannot go public . There is still work to be done by Takeda to turn the new offer to a formal offer. That takes time and that is why the dead line may be extended. I am not expecting the new offer to be accepted formally by SHP until it turns into a formal offer . SHP board if it is happy with the offer may already given its yes to Takeda and Takeda needs a bit more time to turn it to a formal offer. I guess the shorters may be worrying now. That is what my guess is for Monday. If offer is rejected, we will here on Monday. If it is not rejected , deadline will be extended to formalise the offer and put to SHP board. Good luck to all holders.

[philanderer] 22/4/2018 00:45

I missed this from Takeda..

"..Takeda said it hoped to engage with the board of Shire and agree to extend a deadline imposed by the British Takeover Panel of April 25."

[philanderer] 22/4/2018 00:33

Shire boss could take home £40m in pay as takeover looms


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