Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[purchaseatthetop] 08/10/2024 17:04

Husbod. The 4.135 trades were buys. Just tiny volume. Everybody is waiting for Q3 figures though some news buyers might start arriving.

[husbod] 08/10/2024 15:37

Interesting - all those sells, and they do actually seem to be sells and yet the share price rises a little. Do we have a big buyer in the background or will we fall tomorrow.The suspense is not killing me.

[razoblade] 08/10/2024 10:38

antonagis - you must have lost a lot of money believing everything anyone says. Next time invest with your own research before you jump on the bandwagon

[antonagis] 07/10/2024 23:36

PLEASE beware of PURCHASEATTHETOP. All I will say is simply look at his posting history since 2020. Ramps stocks, posting all day every day, luring in mug punters and then vanishes when the stock is on the verge of collapse. Examples are BUSHVELD, ITX, ENET to name just a few.

[skcots48] 07/10/2024 09:56

Germany shows the product works more than the UK. Shame they and Norgine failed to get into so many markets. A hangover of their screwed up study v IV iron. Old news though

[skcots48] 07/10/2024 09:54

If they have anything about them they will find ways to strengthen the patent portfolio. There are ways to introduce more novelty. Won't necessarily extend the patent life but will fend off challenges up to 2035

[skcots48] 07/10/2024 09:50

They could have bought shares if the window opened briefly but I expect they are closed again now because the 3Q update is material

[purchaseatthetop] 07/10/2024 08:32

Just to repeat. I used to hold STX and exited on the way down when it became clear that things were going to get a lot worse before they got better.

I carried on watching and waiting.

The recent accounts showing great prescription growth combined with growing revenue per unit was key. It rapidly moves STX to EBITDA positive.
The new CFO has reorganised the finances so in my view no new raise is needed. The Sallyport invoice financing is key. The limit is $10m now but that can be raised any time to say $15m to release more cash.
The recent Hardman analysis contains one real gem….

The updated forecast for 2024 is 169,100 units at $173 generating $29.3m
H1 24 was 65,200 units generating $11m.
So H2 24 is 103,900 units generating $18.3m so $177 a unit Rx
That suggests H3 24 of 46k (rise of 10k), H4 24 58k units (rise of 12k)

So on 11/9/24 the compsny analyst forecasts rises totalling 22k prescriptions in H2 24 so 11k a quarter when the average so far has been about 5k per quarter. I don’t think they would want to miss their recent target.

So I am back in because the indications snd momentum has changed.

[qipincha] 07/10/2024 07:53

expect update late this month
we should see some momentum soon

[solent25] 07/10/2024 07:44

Although the Norgine numbers are modest in the big picture it does tell one important story. The product works. Assuming no major setbacks (a big assumption given the performance to date), everything else should fall into place. Inc the valuation.

[solent25] 07/10/2024 07:42

dplewis1 - you are obsessed with patt, it’s weird. Try researching companies, not other users.

[purchaseatthetop] 07/10/2024 07:35

Please to see that Spreadex are accepting long bets now on STX.

[dplewis1] 07/10/2024 06:18

Jak - patt (the convicted fraudster) has recently bombed out on Ethernity. This is the culmination of a number of years of wildly inaccurate revenue forecasts and price targets of 10 - 20x whatever the current share price was. I see he has now shifted his energy to fabricating numbers on this board, I would advise any readers to be sceptical in the extreme. He will repeat these "calculations" incessantly until proven wrong by hard facts

[purchaseatthetop] 06/10/2024 15:15

“By analyzing the patents and regulatory protections it appears that the earliest date for generic entry will be October 23, 2035. “

And

Accrufer has a total of 3 drug patents. A generic version of the drug could be released after the final patent expires on 23 October, 2035.

[qipincha] 06/10/2024 14:57

make sure the end year correct...

[hpcg] 06/10/2024 11:24

HMS - my reference to Thanksgiving to the year end as a holiday period was in a reply to Skots suggesting July might be slow, in terms of increased scrips, because it is "a holiday period". I agree with you, I don't think holidays are pertinent in this sector. Every quarter has some sort of holiday period, or in the case of Q1 weather, but these cancel out IMO. I don't think we should notice any seasonality.

[purchaseatthetop] 06/10/2024 09:01

Good point base. No insider buying. Have not checked out the BoD options.

[base7] 06/10/2024 08:18

After the debacle under Greg & our previous CFO, if Santosh & our acting CEO were truly confident of meeting or exceeding expectations, they & other PDMRs would be buying large number of shares before the substantial re rate which they would be anticipating-if they were truly confident.
Additionally,Anders, in the latest Q & A & in answer to the question as to why he & other Directors were not buying shares stated that they had been in a close period until then & therefore unable to buy.He also inferred, with a"knowing" expression that they will not be precluded from buying following that date - but we still await news of Director/Pdmr buying - despite Norgines improved performance & the positive paediatric study

[purchaseatthetop] 06/10/2024 06:27

Looking at our figures, let’s see what happens if we say 42k Q3 24 and then 48k Q4 24. Both with Rx average of $180?

That makes $16.2m product sales H2 24. The Hardman forecast (which is really STX BoD figures) says $18.3m

The updated forecast for 2024 is 169,100 units at $173 generating $29.3m
H1 24 was 65,200 units generating $11m.
So H2 24 is 103,900 units generating $18.3m so $177 a unit Rx
That suggests H3 24 of 46k (rise of 10k), H4 24 58k units (rise of 12k)

Key paragraphs from the Hardman report
“Rapid acceleration of ACCRUFeR Rx and sales in 2024 and 2025 are expected to see Shield become cashflow-breakeven in 2H' 25 and beyond.”

“In our opinion, this is also a reflection of the desire of the new CFO to put his stamp on the quality and consistency of the information being provided in recent trading updates and financial reports. There is no doubt that the 1H'24 report and presentation had much greater transparency and that the data can be relied upon by investors.”

“1H'24 results showed that the PBM issue in 1Q'24 has gone away and there is real confidence in the numbers being presented.
Further benefits of the enlarged sales team in each sequential quarter should give the market more confidence to continue to rerate the shares.”

I wonder if the new CFO is issuing forecasts for the rest of 2024 that will not be achieved? Very much doubt it. There is no upside for him there. The $19.3m for H2 24 plus the forecast of 350k prescriptions in 2025 which is a huge growth rate from 2024 in monthly numbers that needs “acceleration” in growth (exponential) suggests the recent data is delivering higher growth rates.

But as stated by many here, only the hard numbers count.

[qipincha] 05/10/2024 21:32

I won't use Q3 2023 as a good reference as the sales team has expanded significantly at the end of H1 2023.

However, the growth rate, as this is still in the early stage of growth, can be high. Q2 vs Q1 of 2024 has a growth rate of 26%, taken away the factor of the rebound in Texas, it is fair to have a growth rate of 15%-20%, which should give a sale number of 41.8k to 43.6k.

also, the chart is at a pivot point.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

Test various number in my model, I believe the company uses a much reserved model to predict the future revenue (which is good).They have either use a low growth rate (approx. 1.1) or a high running cost (> 4m/ month) in the calculation.

[hms_trader] 05/10/2024 20:58

Hpcg - re the thanksgiving to NY period being a holiday period and potential slowdown - in '23 the Q3 to q4 period saw an 22% increase in Sales.I'd imagine anybody needing medication goes out and buys it before pharmacies are shut to make sure they're covered over the jolidays

[hms_trader] 05/10/2024 20:52

Purchaseatthetop - if you remodel the increase in prescriptions quarter over quarter as percentage growth rather than absolute number of prescriptions it runs at approx 30% AVG growth quarter over quarter. Applying this growth rate to the Q2'24 number and then to every quarter through to q4'25 it surpasses the 350k that Hardman have in their forecast

[purchaseatthetop] 05/10/2024 17:57

Hpcg. I also look at the estimate for 2025. That is $71m for product sales. Even at $200 a unit that is 350k prescriptions for the year. That is 87.5k average per quarter.
If our quarters have been…
Q2 24 36,400 rise of 7,600
Q1 24 28,800 rise of 200
Q4 23 28,600 rise of 5,300
Q3 23 23,300 rise of 8,400
Q2 23 14,900 rise of 4,700
Q1 23 10,200

There is one hell of a gap to fill to reach 2025. Even if that is by quarter 70k, 85k, 90k, 105k

They did the Hardman forecast in early Sept 24 so have a fair view already of Q3. What chance they would estimate such a great jump unless they had some indications that things were accelerating?

Might be utter nonsense of course and they plucked figures that they liked and there is no basis for them.