Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[donaferentes] 21/5/2021 12:27

Correct - momentary aberration. I came to £6, but same difference. Apologies.

[donaferentes] 21/5/2021 12:26

Sorry typed wrong number - should be share price c. £6.

[tradertrev] 21/5/2021 12:22

Agree with cyber's arithmetic (or should that be math?) and 7x EV/EBITDA very conservative.

[purchaseatthetop] 21/5/2021 12:20

cyberbub...I also read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that whole new applications for iron deficiency are being looked at for the older population where they should be taking medicines to boost iron in their haemoglobin which falls with age. If I remember the count was below 115 they needed to take boosters. The potential market may be a lot larger than the present target.

[cyberbub] 21/5/2021 12:14

Donaferentes post 2145, you've miscalculated - that should be £5 per share!!If the upside was only £1 per share in 3 years' time then there wouldn't be much of an investment case...The £5 per share is based on only a modest market share. Personally I see no reason why it couldn't be £10 per share or more. And don't forget that there should be substantial divis coming through in due course...NAI DYOR

[halfbutt] 21/5/2021 12:12

Huge buy at 61.5... bodes well and congratulations to the buyer

[dougerboy] 21/5/2021 11:50

From CEO's April 21 presentation:

US market size
• ~10 million ID patients; ~5 million patients treated annually for IDA
• >11 million US prescriptions annually

[swizz] 21/5/2021 11:46

ProActive interview,.....GL S

[donaferentes] 21/5/2021 11:06

Just googled - 10m with iron deficiency of which 5m anaemia. Populations vary from 2% men, 9-12% non Mexican white/ women to Mexican women 20%. Seems like 90,000 full annual users out of 10m TAM has room for growth.

[donaferentes] 21/5/2021 11:01

I meant number of people currently needing some form of iron treatment.

[jackson83] 21/5/2021 11:00

300 billion ?

[donaferentes] 21/5/2021 10:51

Anyone know what the Total Addressable US Market is?

[donaferentes] 21/5/2021 10:49

Funky trader suggested sales of $100m pa within 18 months and $300m after year 3 at a 90% margin less $45m sales costs = $225m ebitda X 7 / 1.4 to give fair value of c. £1 per share. Seems we might reach that rather sooner than year 3. $270m net sales / $250 net price = 1,080,000 monthly supplies = 90,000 full annual users. Seems eminently possible and even quite a modest target.

[jackson83] 21/5/2021 10:46

I purchased another 5000 shares at 60.25p as can see this rise 50% when the US open later today .... possible 200p next week ... STRONG BUY

[transhoneyqueens] 21/5/2021 10:42

should see this rise to 100p by 2pm ..STRONG BUY

[dougerboy] 21/5/2021 10:07

Here are some IV treatment market price points from a danish study (Bager & Dahlerup) - a bit old/from 2010, and IV treatment costs will have increased - so I think the STX discounted pricing looks to be in the right ballpark. Plus: who wants to take time off work to go into hospital and get needles stuck in their veins on a regular basis.

Table 2
Costs used in health economic analysis comparing intravenous iron sucrose (Venofer®) with intravenous iron carboxymaltose (Ferinject®). All costs shown in Euros (€).

Analysis BIA CEA (100% income) CEA (50% income)
Costs (€)
1000 mg iron sucrose (Venofer®) 219 219 219
1000 mg iron carboxymaltose (Ferinject®) 437 437 437
Utensils per infusion 1.3 1.3 1.3
Value of nurse time spent per infusion 17 17 17
General and administrative hospital costs 5 5 5
Patient income loss per infusion NA 60 30
Patient cost of transportation per infusion NA 20 20
BIA: Budget Impact Analysis.

CEA: Cost Effective Analysis.

NA: Not applicable.

[nobbygnome] 21/5/2021 09:59

In terms of pricing th US market is mad. Essentially you charge as much as the insurers will agree to. Remember the competitor is iv iron which is more expensive.

[little minx] 21/5/2021 09:58

I always thought the US population always happy to pay for their drugs so can't see this being an issue.Remember the row between Labour and Conservative over the inflated cost of US supplying us certain drugs.

[rimau1] 21/5/2021 09:52

Frrinvest - exactly. The cost to the patient is now much higher so i want to know if that is market research driven and will mean higher profits or cost driven which is a less positive sign as it may result in less uptake. Anybody have an idea? Nobby? I am waiting on Tim and the IR team to respond as if its the former this is really good news.

[transhoneyqueens] 21/5/2021 09:51

should be over 100p next week after the weekend coverage .. STRONG BUY

[jackson83] 21/5/2021 09:33

M.A.B has a price target on this at 400p this year.... bought more at 59p today

[dougerboy] 21/5/2021 09:26

I've dipped my toe in here - I hope at the right time. US sales growth projections and their attainment interest me greatly. I have another take on it based on the number of sales hires- 30 - who will all be incentivised to get the product into the market pronto after launch. If we assume an annual sales target of $5M per Rep, we arrive at sales of $150M p.a. - maybe not a bad figure -any pharma reps out there? The CEO post launch stated the revenue curve target as follows in his April presentation "US sales to exceed $100m from the third year following launch." My thumb in the air says post launch: $30M year 1 ($1M per rep), $60M year 2 ($2M per rep), $100M+ year 3.

[nico115] 21/5/2021 09:23

Nobby is a good man Not sure why you are attacking him

[frrinvest] 21/5/2021 09:17

It is interesting they have hiked the price to $500 per pack per month as opposed to per 3 months. IF this is a fact then they must have done it after the market research and still remain competitive. Doesn't this treble their revenue/profit forecast? Incredible really. share price has much further to go imho, £1+ before end of June?