Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[carl19] 04/12/2020 17:29

Sorry, wrong board.

[carl19] 04/12/2020 17:27

Just done mine too.

[shandypants2] 02/12/2020 14:41

all buys today, which bodes well.

I'm in agreement with Peachie's view too - i took the reiteration of the year end date as a positive and topped up accordingly. I suspect a week or two is required post Thanksgiving so maybe from next week the deal could drop. Could be a 1pm RNS too if US partner wishes to announce simultaneously. Keep the faith

[nobbygnome] 02/12/2020 12:49

Level 2 looking encouraging. Two MMs now on the 108p bid and only one on the 110p offer with the next best offer at 113p!

[innittowinit] 01/12/2020 23:24

Peachie makes a solid point.

If there was nothing left in play in relation to previous anouncements (especially the multiple bullish comments in the prelims statement) then the NOMAD would be all over the company to cleanse the market.

[78steve] 01/12/2020 16:11

Picked up a few more of these today as it bounced off from here last time and went to 140p.

[peachie 74] 01/12/2020 15:34

Nobby -> Yes. If no deal was going to happen , be it this month or next year, Proactive would not be reiterating the point IMO

If no deal was going to happen, we would surely know by now. The longer it goes , the more I believe they are just sorting the fine detail

[lako42] 01/12/2020 15:18

Well you don't even need to look at another company to find a CEO who has done that. Summer deadline anyone?

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2020 14:39

Tim said in the September results' presentation that they would not have a fund raising but would look at debt financing options. He said this is his expert area so I trust him on that. However, we all know CEOs who have said one thing and done another so could be proved wrong.

[lovewinshatelosses] 01/12/2020 14:34

I assume if we got to the stage of needing a cash call, that would be the end of this management team. Bored of waiting now, but only grumbling, not selling! :)

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2020 14:13

>> peachie

Good stuff. So you are still confident of an imminent deal? Sorry I used that I word again....

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2020 13:58

>> toffee

LOL!

[peachie 74] 01/12/2020 13:58

I just bought 10k that’s why ...

But that also correlates with a drop soon after !

[stevee1234] 01/12/2020 13:52

I don't know Nobby but it's on mine as well, could it possibly be ..... nahh!!

[toffeeman] 01/12/2020 13:49

A pigment of your imagination :)

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2020 13:42

What's that strange blueish colour on my STX monitor.......

[ekcs] 01/12/2020 12:08

The 'market' here is the nervous/bored/frustrated retail investors and the market makers respond accordingly to the drip drip drip.

THere is clearly no widespread institutional selling and the premier league institutional investors that are interested in the stock (& there will be some from meetings the company's brokers and management will have been conducting) will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for news as they will be happy to miss out on some upside but won't want the pain of the downside risk that they percieve related to deal negotiations.

[nobbygnome] 01/12/2020 10:30

I would certainly agree such a takeover makes sense.......but the market is telling us a different story!

[best1467] 01/12/2020 10:25

Parc1 I had exactly the same opinion regarding Teva and your research only strengthens the argument that it’s a distinct possibility.
Twelve Months ago I would have been dead against a takeover at this stage because you will not get the long term valuation but with what’s happened since I would be more than happy with around £2.50 which I would imagine they would get over the line.
Pressure will surely be ramping up the closer we get to year end as we all know cash will be needed feb /March time and if we still have no deal in place the already poor credibility of the management will be in tatters and a cash call would certainly be difficult to say the least.
So in summary the longer it goes surely a bid is imminent and Teva must be a strong possibility

[frrinvest] 01/12/2020 10:07

EKCS good writeup. It seems MMs are prepared to drop the price at the hint of small sells. However, if PIs remain firm and show a little more patient I am sure we will be rewarded one way or another. GLA!

[ekcs] 01/12/2020 09:28

@nobbygnome #693

The sales last week and people's comments about it being negavtive made me curious so I've done some reading...

Looking at various company announcements the former CEO put c. £300,000 into the IPO at 150p... so he quite a bit under water on that... and followed his money when warrants were exercised back in June 2017, again at 150p. Who knows how much he invested prior to becoming a plc. SO i guess the purchase you refer to represent relatively few shares (~90,000 out of >10m) and their sale is not going even going to get him into positive territory, nevermind make him rich!!

As for options and their exercise - looking back at the various RNS announcements on such matters I reckon he might have upto north of 500,000 options IF he was allowed to retain any of them when he departed. If unexercised these will not be included in his stated holdings. The announcement from earlier last year around the 123,000 options was when the share price was c. 85p. There was no announcement of a sale at that time (I guess he was locked in officially or even unofficially as the founder and then CEO), so under the HMRC's rules he'd have had to pay the tax on the gain at the time of the gain, as it is PAYE. Again looking at the company's documentation and announcements around their schemes the options to executives/PDMIs get issued at 1.5p, so on 123,690 shares (the number referred to in your link) the value would have been around 100k, with tax due at the time of exercise at around 55% (check out HMRC rules on such share schemes and remember it is PAYE), so another £50k 'investment' give or take.

Perhaps some of the sale last week was related to his options as usually ex-employees are given a period of time by their former employers to exercise any vested options post departure, so maybe he had reached his time limit and despite hoping they would get a deal announced within the timeframe, something is better than nothing if they simply expired.

All that said, for me the important points (that any sensible person knows and inittowinit has also listed) are that:

1. whether he sold some last week to meet an investment requirement for his newly announced role or not, he is going to sell down at some point - we all would to diversify our risk if we held such a concentrated position
2. it looks like he has done this in a sensible way - rather than drippping shares into the market it seems to have been done via a 'book build' probably organised by one of the company's brokers
3. almost certainly the shares have been bought by one or more institutional buyers which is only positive. Hopefully with their new/additional purchases they will look to support the price and protect their investment

The share price would of course be helped by a positive announcement (fingers, toes and everything else that can be is crossed), but it would also benefit from PIs not dripping a few thousand shares a day onto market makers, as those leaches simply lower the share price in reaction...

The down is always steeper than the up trajectory!!

[lako42] 01/12/2020 09:00

We are now seeing daily erosion of the share price. Not good enough

[onceaday] 30/11/2020 23:29

I suspect he was.just a bit optomistic on timescales in pinning down a partner.

Trva"s patent challenge was almost certainly dropped due to the strength of the IP protection. Teva are not the only generic that mount challenges when patents are weak.

[frrinvest] 30/11/2020 23:14

Evidently they started off with a licence deal. Teva removed the patent claim in October 2020 and perhaps they had other ideas and may explain the result of the delay? All a bit of speculation and something to say, anything, as we are all eager for an announcement.

[onceaday] 30/11/2020 22:41

I doubt it's an acquisition. It's dragged on far too long for that. Tim has previously made the point that license deals are more complex and take longer to negotiate than buyouts.