Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[best1467] 06/8/2019 16:21

posters are failing to grasp the true potential the current valuation is crazy and for me the potential partners whoever they maybe will see that and a bid rather than a licensing deal can not be far away.
So although I can�t blame anyone for taking a profit on the back of the run up from the 40/50 level I have been tempted but it�s a risky one to be out of in the next few weeks and months imho

[deeppockets] 06/8/2019 14:04

I can see the deal coming earlier than Oct, no real reason but they were talking to several potential partners pending FCA and he did say he wanted to move asap to get the drug on sale as quickly as possible

[siriusbizness] 06/8/2019 13:25

The problem is we have a clear timeframe now. Some will see better opportunities elsewhere between now and Q4. Obviously you don’t want to be out when the US commercial deal lands but it won’t be until Oct earliest. Expect a bit of drift down this month until people start looking to get back in towards end of Sept. Obviously this could change if there are any surprises or another II starts to buy in

[peachie 74] 06/8/2019 13:02

Irritating small private investors following the herd. Getting scared for some inexplicable reason !
The FDA won’t be retracting it’s ruling I’m sure !

[nobbygnome] 06/8/2019 11:58

The sales will not be great so better to be realistic. Norgine are only selling in a couple of markets. This company should be valued on the sales in a couple of years time and more importantly how valuable Feraccru is to an acquirer. That is most definitely way above this level and the company is definitely vulnerable to an opportunistic bid now.

[deeppockets] 06/8/2019 11:47

If results aren't great tomorrow - in other words Norgine aren't selling much, might we see a drop off? Carl seemed happy with how they are doing but sales figures will be interesting.

[nobbygnome] 06/8/2019 06:50

Apparently a recording of the analysts' presentation and Q&A session will be made available to everybody. They told me this after I complained about the preferential treatment for analysts but I don't know if the two events are linked😜!

[ny boy] 05/8/2019 17:18

Best, let’s all go on holidays until the commercialisation deal

Quiet month August, some general market volatility around due to lack of buyers.

[2theduke] 05/8/2019 15:24

also sirius to answer your question, yes they say Q4 for distribution agreement conclusion. and Q1 next year to get ready for "livery" with the new partner.

[2theduke] 05/8/2019 15:22

I agree it is odd to release a broker report that takes really nothing new in to account. Most of the brokers have done this, assigning only the EU feraccu income to their forecasts, it is just an odd approach.
It is almost like they are not interested in increasing coverage or the share price at this time. I also note the nice headlines on turnover expectations have gone from Shields website.
Given the oddness, I'm ignoring it and just reminding myself of my own fundamentals to being here.

@Nobby, bad luck getting a place, kind of odd given we're all shareholders.

[siriusbizness] 05/8/2019 14:59

Agreed! What’s the point in telling us what the share price is after the event

[nobbygnome] 05/8/2019 14:46

But once they sign a substantial deal they presumably will up their fair value to well over £2.

[crankyman] 05/8/2019 14:40

Ridiculous valuation

[ny boy] 05/8/2019 14:15

A detailed assessment of valuation was provided in our initiation report1, which generated a risk-adjusted value for STX of £194m, or 166p per share. Removal of the US regulatory risk-adjustment has added £14m, or 12p per share to this valuation, bringing it to 178p per share. This is taking a conservative view about the launch in the US and does not allow for any up-front payments on signing up with the US distribution partner(s), which could be substantial for a de-risked product.

[nobbygnome] 05/8/2019 14:08

Rejected from attending the analyst meeting! Very poor show IMHO and I will express my opinion accordingly.

[siriusbizness] 05/8/2019 14:07

Can’t read full report. Do they give a target when US commercial partner announced? Thanks

[ny boy] 05/8/2019 13:15

Research note just out, all good!

[crankyman] 05/8/2019 12:14

Sounds good

[2theduke] 05/8/2019 10:56

Cranky, I'm asking for their considerations. E.g. they could have an open approach to bids, they may have a process, they may not be interested, they may judge an approach (if any on its own merits and ultimate return), they may have a view on splitting out PT20, etc). It will be a natural thought process for the team and I'd be interested on their thoughts.
If they want to say its outside of their control, sure they can......

[crankyman] 05/8/2019 10:45

Selling is out of Management’s control

[2theduke] 05/8/2019 08:50

Thanks Nobby.
I just called them up to chase and then they responded really quickly.
If you could, I would like to know:
* What are managements considerations regarding a sale of the company vs. continuing with gaining distribution agreements

[nobbygnome] 02/8/2019 16:06

Just to say I haven't been accepted yet. I have tried to use my Pharma experience and said I would be representing a number of shareholders.... but I am not an analyst!

[deeppockets] 02/8/2019 16:01

He mentioned the next drug on the Vox interview - possible timescales? Also China discussions - timescales on deal there? Thanks Nobby

[nobbygnome] 02/8/2019 15:49

Some good questions there....

[crankyman] 02/8/2019 15:34

Sterritt indicated he is focused on a top down strategy of focusing on secondary care then primary care and is choosing a partner based on that. He wants a company where Accrufer will be their leading brand. What are the advantages and disadvantages of larger and smaller firms as partners given larger firms would have greater primary care coverage. Where does he see the bulk of the prescriptions coming from when the hit peak sales (primary care or secondary care?)? Which co-morbidities?
How does the high price strategy come into that? What price sensitivity is there to a $250 a month drug in primary care? The US has been an OTC market in oral therapies. Would there be resistance from payers for listing an oral drug?
How much is he expecting his US partner to spend a year on sales and marketing? What capacity will a medium sized company have to build demand in primary which is going to require direct to consumer advertising and could be very expensive?