Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 21/5/2019 13:18

It is funny how 'lying Tim McCarthy' has entered the vernacular. I think I may be able to take the credit for that. There is no doubt it is true...

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 12:56

This is nothing like Immupharma as STX they already have European Drug Agency approval a while ago and selling their product throughout Europe and recently Switzerland, hopefully some news on China later in the year, so the thinking is a good risk reward they get FDA approval on or after 27 July GLA

[volsung] 21/5/2019 12:48

I f toptips turns up here I'm selling straight away :)

[crankyman] 21/5/2019 12:45

Biotech/ pharma opportunities like this are extremely thin on the ground in the U.K. market. Arguably the U.K. market can’t price them very well. There’s no depth. Therefore STX was extremely undercapitalised in the first place. I think it has only raised about £80 million in total. A US firm would have raised $500 million on the back of the IBD trial. Despite that they’ve managed to deliver the second phase III and a head to head and a kids study. Meanwhile they almost lost everything. The price should be factoring in some upside potential. It’s still a long long way from doing that.

[growthinvestor2001] 21/5/2019 12:35

please lets not bring up IMM and lying Tim McCarthy. I was nervous enough getting back into a stock like this ... but hopefully this time with a totally different result

[78steve] 21/5/2019 12:34

So value on approval is some where in the region of £2.50 - £3.50. Long way to go yet.

[nobbygnome] 21/5/2019 12:25

The major difference is this is a drug which has been proven to work and is already approved in Europe. Lupuzor never ever met a primary endpoint even in Phase II!

[kop202] 21/5/2019 12:11

This is beginning to remind me of Immupharma except there is no lying CEO goading investors on

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 12:08

Not how much stock is left but if not much, you’ll see a bigger move up

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 11:55

The very weak £ must be supportive to growth in sales.

How long before TEVA launch a knock out bid, would need to be a big number now

Exciting times ahead, 43 trading days approx to FDA decision

New money investor in flows at beginning of Jun & July

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 11:30

Solid buying again, investors waking up to under valued status here imo, I think we easily break 115p resistance as it’s not a very big resistance level but I doubt much higher than 150p pre FDA

[crankyman] 21/5/2019 10:43

A £3 price you’ve got to assume a pretty conservative estimate for market share. Global peak sales of around £150 million based on a back of the envelope estimate. That’s pretty modest. IV has single digit percentage share of volume in units but 50% of the value. They can’t be assuming any of the oral iron treatment failures go on to Feraccru 2nd line beyond those that were candidates for IV. In other words, they don’t grow the branded pie - they just take a slice

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 10:11

Solid move higher after the masses of 100p trades recently, very supportive along with nearly all investors buying to hold, to at least.. post 27 July, as a minimum hold.

Onwards towards 150p, I doubt the resistance @ 115p is particularly strong, so we should get a “melt up” on stock shortages.

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 09:22

2theduke, call the FinCap guys up, sure they can be of assistance

[2theduke] 21/5/2019 09:08

That's very interesting. I was wondering what NPV could look like given the 2030 expiry and unknown royalties on the EU sales. Does FinCap have detail on this?

[ny boy] 21/5/2019 08:49

Back to the story here, investors coming in again, buy & hold, L2 2v1 so looks set to move up soon to test 115p resistance

[crankyman] 20/5/2019 22:10

Who actually cares? I've clarified - for your benefit - what I was saying.

[nobbygnome] 20/5/2019 21:50

Here is your quote

'They need someone desperate to fill a hole for a primary care sales force.' The word desperate is most definitely there.

[crankyman] 20/5/2019 21:05

I never said that a partner *needed* to be desperate. This is a product ready to go to market. It's unusual in that most deals would be done ahead of time and speculative based on a pending decision. It would need to be a company with an immediate need to fill a gap and with a salesforce in situ. It's a pretty uncontroversial statement. Management are maximising the value by removing that uncertainty that would otherwise discount the upfront. Note as well that I said a primary care sale force. I think this is a primary care product - not secondary care. That's what TEVA see. But selling it in primary care will require a lot of money - probably $100million over 3+ years.

[ny boy] 20/5/2019 20:52

Probably up to 150p before FDA decision, but who knows, it could spiral a lot higher in the last few weeks of July and whether any leaks/rumours around, this stock is mostly being accumulated as many have got burnt selling all the way up to current only to see the share price climb higher on increasing investor confidence and broker coverage. Dyor as usual.

[nobbygnome] 20/5/2019 20:43

I thought you said only a desperate company would sign a deal. You have changed your tune in the last 24 hours....did you buy in today by any chance?

[crankyman] 20/5/2019 20:24

The FDA label is pretty much a dead certainty. Any doubt about that was dispelled after the CKD debacle where they indicated that they had spoken to the FDA and they were OK to continue with the submission. The only room for doubt is the scope of it - IBD and CKD only or a full Iron Deficiency label like in Europe. It's probably going to be limited. If it's the full ID - that's a huge amount of extra market size to go after. I think the bigger driver of value is, however, who they sign up in the US. If you read their documents on this they say that they won't announce the partner until after the label is announced. The long term success and potential depends on who that is and how much they are willing to invest in making the product a success. I'd agree with the 250 to 300 number before the partner is known - after - it could go a lot higher.

[wirraltrader] 20/5/2019 19:11

I think £3

[nobbygnome] 20/5/2019 17:12

Finncap's recent guidance....

Shield Therapeutics is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company whose lead compound, Feraccru, is marketed in some European markets for the treatment of iron deficiency, with or without anaemia. In a global market estimated to be worth c.£2.5bn, the recent head-to-head Phase IIIb trial, which showed Feraccru to be equivalent to the leading intravenous iron, positions Feraccru very favourably. The approval in the US, expected on 27 July, will be a key inflection point, the risk-adjusted value of which is not reflected in the current price at all. The NPV of Feraccru in Europe is c.81p, where it is currently marketed. The risk-adjusted NPV in the US is 229p. We initiate with a target price of 200p although FDA approval and subsequent licensing would see this rise to at least 250p."

[sharestobuy] 20/5/2019 17:08

If we get FDA approval, what will this rise to, on or around 27th July?