Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 01/2/2019 17:13

FTSE 100
7,020.22 +0.74%
Dow Jones
25,141.98 +0.57%
CAC 40
5,019.26 +0.53%

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 61.98 +1.87%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.42 +3.00%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.78 -1.21%

(WTI)
- 01/02 17:49:44
54.52 USD +1.21%



Total
48.21 +0.48%


Engie
14.09 +0.75%

Orange
13.595 +0.18%


Eni
14.772 -0.23%



BP
521.5 +0.27%


Shell A
2,384 +0.93%


Shell B
2,384.5 +0.68%


So we end the week and start a new month on a positive note

SHELL has crept into the 2375 to 2475p BOX with a premium surprisingly on par

next week should confirm all

[waldron] 01/2/2019 16:12

HOUSTON -- The world's largest Western oil companies shrugged off a plunge in oil prices in the final months of 2018 and posted some of their biggest annual profits in years.

The strong fourth-quarter earnings Friday by Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., following similar results by Royal Dutch Shell PLC Thursday, demonstrated that the big oil companies are seeing benefits from a more disciplined strategy focused on returns and profitability over growing production.

The companies have restructured their businesses, sold off assets and positioned themselves to thrive even when crude prices swing up and down wildly.

Global crude prices fell 38% at the end of the fourth quarter, but Exxon still generated $6 billion in net income in the period -- lower than the year before, which was boosted by the U.S. tax overhaul, but still better than analysts had expected. Chevron said net income was $3.7 billion, up 19% from the period a year ago.

Both companies substantially increased U.S. shale production in the booming Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

Even with global crude prices averaging about $71 a barrel last year, about a third lower than in 2014, the five biggest companies including Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP PLC and France's Total SA are on track to post combined annual profits of about $84 billion, 13% higher than four years ago, when oil sold for more than $100 a barrel before falling, according to FactSet data.

"These companies have figured out how to operate in this new environment, and they have adjusted well" to lower prices, said Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis. "The key going forward will be maintaining discipline. This is now a low-growth industry, so you've got to invest well."

Shares of Exxon and Chevron rose in premarket trading Friday.

Production at Exxon rose above 4 million barrels a day of oil and gas for the first time since early 2017. On Thursday, Shell said it nearly doubled profits in 2018 from the previous year, posting net income of about $23 billion.

Exxon recorded a $429 million impairment charge in the quarter. Total revenue and other income rose 8.1% to $72 billion. The company announced Thursday that it would reorganize its drilling and production business into three new companies, effective in April.

Total revenue at Chevron rose 13% to $42 billion, and production of oil and gas rose 7% to the equivalent of 2.93 million barrels a day. Excluding asset sales, the company said it expects production to grow by 4% to 7% in 2019. Chevron also had a $270 million write-off in the quarter.

Allison Prang and Kimberly Chin contributed to this article.

Write to Bradley Olson at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 01, 2019 09:39 ET (14:39 GMT)

[florenceorbis] 01/2/2019 14:17

Dow futures indicate a 100-point gain on the back of a booming jobs report
Published 6 hours ago | Updated 35 min ago
Fred Imbert
@foimbert
Silvia Amaro
@Silvia_Amaro




watch now
VIDEO00:41
Stocks could start February in the green

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a higher open on Friday after the U.S. government released jobs growth data that easily beat expectations.

Dow futures traded 80 points higher, indicating a gain of 100.33 points at the open.

The U.S. economy added 304,000 jobs in January. Economists polled by Refinitiv expect the U.S. economy to have added 170,000 jobs in January. The report follows a 35-day U.S. government shutdown. It also marks the 100th straight month of jobs growth.

Investors had been awaiting the report in search of clues about the state of the economy.

Wall Street also digested key earnings from companies like Amazon and Merck. On Thursday, Amazon reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter. However, the company issued weaker-than-expected revenue guidance for the first quarter and warned about increasing investments. These concerns pushed Amazon shares down by 4.3 percent. Merck, meanwhile, posted a better-than-expected profit and revenue, but its shares fell 0.6 percent before the bell.

Exxon Mobil shares rose about 3 percent after the company reported better-than-expected earnings.

Money managers are also keeping an eye on trade talks between China and the United States. Both negotiating teams have said they made “important progress.” President Donald Trump also said he would soon meet with Chinese premier Xi Jinping to try to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Stocks had taken heart from the possibility of top-level trade talks over the coming weeks, but the upbeat mood soon cooled when the White House insisted it sees March 1 as a hard deadline for a deal.

Earlier on Friday, a survey showed Chinese factory activity falling to its lowest level since February 2016. The downbeat data exacerbated fears of an economic slowdown.

The moves Friday come after Wall Street posted its biggest January gain since 1987 in the previous session. Strong earnings and an indication from the Federal Reserve that it will pause rate hikes boosted investor confidence. The S&P 500 ended January up more than 7 percent.

Gains in January usually translate into a positive year for stocks. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has ended a calendar year higher 87 percent of the time when January ends up being a positive month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

—CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this article.

[florenceorbis] 01/2/2019 13:46

19 viewsFeb 1, 2019, 07:50am
Will The Majors Beat The Market In 2019?
Wood Mackenzie
Simon Flowers
Contributor
Wood Mackenzie
Contributor Group
Energy

How to beat the stock market in 2019? The Majors will take on board the success most had in 2018 when the peer group outperformed an oil and gas sector beset by collapsing oil prices late in the year. So what worked last year and can we can expect more of the same?

First, higher distributions to shareholders. The Majors spent the downturn shoring up finances, reducing investment, cutting costs and selling non-core assets to raise funds. At the start of 2018, most were set to cope at U.S.$50/barrel. When oil prices rose well beyond that in the early months of the year, there was cash to spare.

Shell, Total and Chevron all began substantial buy-back programs during the year. This was the first important signal to investors: returning cash to shareholders ranked higher than growth expenditure. Bolstering defensive credentials seems an important step towards regaining investor confidence.

Second, companies showed a measured approach to new investment in 2018. As cash flow has recovered, most have resisted the urge to re-invest. Capital expenditure is starting to pick up, which is no surprise after the steep cuts of the last few years and the lows of 2017. So far, most Majors have held any increase to single digits.

ExxonMobil has been the very visible exception. We estimate it beefed up annual investment by 33%, or U.S.$5 billion, in 2018, embarking on a new investment cycle focused on its world-class growth plays in Guyana, Brazil, Papua New Guinea, Mozambique and U.S. tight oil. ExxonMobil’s share price was the poorest performer among the peer group, seemingly underlining investors’ preference for the defensive.


We expect the other Majors to proceed gingerly on spend again in 2019. Yet the number of final investment decisions is on the rise, suggesting the early stages of a broader new investment cycle. It’s certainly going to happen in LNG. Shell’s go-ahead for LNG Canada and BP’s for the Tortue FLNG project in Mauritania at the end of 2018 kicked off a new wave of big new projects in which ExxonMobil, Total and Eni will also be involved.

Third, companies continue in their efforts to bolster portfolio resilience. The Majors have used M&A adroitly through the downturn to strengthen advantaged positions – BP’s acquisition of BHP’s U.S. L48 assets is the stand-out example of 2018. Accessing low-cost oil was also a feature last year, with almost 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent of resource secured in UAE (Total/Eni), Oman (Shell/Total), Algeria (Total) and Azerbaijan (Equinor). These contracts may be low margin, but a key attraction is the ability to generate cash at low oil prices.

Fourth, production grew despite reduced investment since the downturn. We estimate production rose by 4% on average in 2018; and the outlook in the medium-term is impressive. The combination of exploration, M&A, asset upgrades and access to discovered resource opportunities has boosted forecast production to 2025 by 10%, or 2.4 million barrels per day, compared with how we saw things in 2017. This is some feat after four years of lower capital spend. It’s the second important signal to investors – there’s no pressing need to step up investment to sustain production volumes.

The fifth theme jars with the defensive narrative, but it’s a good one, nonetheless – exploration is making money again. The Majors, like the rest of the industry, slashed spend on exploration after 2014. A more focused approach to prospect evaluation, lower costs and faster project delivery has led to much-improved economic performance. 2018 was the best year in a decade, with full cycle industry returns averaging 13%. The Majors weighed in with 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent of reserves discovered, one-third of the industry’s 2018 total. Eni and Total’s Calypso gas discovery in Cyprus and ExxonMobil’s Guyana oil finds accounted for well over half the Majors’ total.

If stock market out-performance is the metric of success, defensive is winning. We’d expect the Majors to keep the winning formula in 2019 and return surplus cash to shareholders. But it’s not a sustainable strategy for the long run and, in the not-too-distant future, the Majors will rely again on new growth opportunities from exploration to keep the business ticking over. It’s reassuring to know they’ve got their mojo back.
Simon Flowers
Simon Flowers Contributor

[wbecki] 01/2/2019 13:28

Earnings slides in case anyone itnerested in seeing these...

Royal Dutch Shell plc 2018 Q4 - Results - Earnings Call Slides

[fjgooner] 01/2/2019 12:47

Indeed, and as per grupo's article posted above:

But, Shell’s business is fossil fuels, and so it’s no surprise that in its plan, oil and gas consumption doesn’t decline much for several decades; in Shell’s vision, it rises and plateaus through 2040, before eventually declining to right around where it is today, and eventually drawing down for real around 2060.

That means no real disruption to oil and gas companies’ revenue streams until they have plenty of time to smoothly transition to other sources of income. And by then, van Beurden said Thursday, Shell will be all-in: “I have confidence that Paris will be delivered. And it has to be delivered through business, and I intend to fully benefit through that.”

[linton5] 01/2/2019 12:24

Yip or you’ll regret it bud

[enturner] 01/2/2019 12:11

I bought in recently at a good level for the upcoming div but it looks like taking a little profit given the recent gains might well pay better?

[grupo] 01/2/2019 10:36

Cheers fjg

trying to avoid geeks offering gifts

and thereby copious emails thereafter

[fjgooner] 01/2/2019 10:26

@grupo,



But premium access is required for the value links on that page.

They offer a 14 day free trial.

[grupo] 01/2/2019 08:15

[UPDATED FEBRUARY 1, 2019]: The Board expects that the first quarter 2019
interim dividend will be US$0.47, equal to the US dollar dividend for the same
quarter in the previous year. The first quarter 2019 interim dividend is
scheduled to be announced on May 2, 2019. [UPDATE ENDS]

[montyhedge] 01/2/2019 08:11

Profit taking understandable, big rise, last few days.

[grupo] 01/2/2019 07:54

ANYONE KNOW MORNINGSTARS FAIR VALUE TARGET

[grupo] 01/2/2019 07:51

Shell Shares Undervalued as Profits Hit 4 Year High
Royal Dutch Shell has posted excellent full-year results, as profits hit a four-year high. But analysts say the stock is still trading below fair value
Allen Good
1 February, 2019 | 7:16AM

Oil rig commodities natural resources energy brent crude WTI oil price

Shell (RDSB) closed out 2018 by reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, including strong earnings and cash flow growth. Most notable was the cash flow, which increased to $22.0 billion from $7.3 billion a year ago.

Shell’s cash flow generation has been plagued all year by increases in working capital and margin requirements for hedging contracts for the integrated gas portfolio, but both turned to a tailwind during the fourth quarter, to the tune of $9.1 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively, thanks in part to the fall in oil prices. Excluding the working capital impact, operating cash flow increased to $12.9 billion from $9.1 billion largely reflecting the increase in earnings.

During the year, Shell also completed its targeted $30 billion divesting programme, bringing its gearing ratio down to 20.3%. It also ended its scrip dividend programme and initiated a repurchase plan. To date it has repurchased $4.5 billion of its planned $25 billion in repurchases by 2020 and plans to repurchase another $2.5 billion through April. Finally, it delivered on the bulk of projects that will ultimately contribute $15 billion in cash flow by 2020, instilling further confidence in its $25 billion free cash flow target.

While both earnings and cash flow might be negatively affected in 2019 given the decline in oil prices, Shell’s targets are based on $60 per barrel, in line with current market expectations. However, Shell’s shares do not reflect this multiyear improvement, in our view, leaving them trading at one of the greatest discounts to our fair value estimate in the integrated oils universe. Our fair value and narrow moat rating are unchanged.

Earnings increased to $5.8 billion from $4.4 billion the year before largely on the strength in the integrated gas and downstream segments. Integrated gas earnings increased to $2.4 billion from $1.6 billion on higher realized prices and trading margins as volumes were flat. Upstream earnings increased to $1.9 billion from $1.7 billion a year ago thanks to higher oil and gas prices.

Production increased 1% but was 5% higher excluding portfolio effects on new field start and ramp ups. The downstream segment turned in a strong quarter, with earnings jumping to $2.1 billion from $1.4 billion last year primarily on stronger refining and trading results which offset weaker chemical results.

[tornado12] 01/2/2019 04:06

Not surprised by these results the trend was saying it all during 2018. I expect Shell have learnt the key lessons from the oil downturn and from here apply best control on costs and ROCE. Is 60% of my portfolio and with average divi rate of 7% I’m more than happy to keep in my top draw for next 20 yrs. Will add more in next ISA year !

[the white house] 31/1/2019 20:44

Top numbers all round congrats to allQuite bizarre comments from Citi'Flat dividends is hardly enticing' directed at the Company that is no. 1 in the World for dividend payouts and at a huge 6%+Priceless'Sell' A company that will be buying a million shares a day for the next two years, demonstrating clear business progress on many, many fronts and jumping up in news dayBrave or STUPID

[waldron] 31/1/2019 19:49

waldron
31 Dec '18 - 13:36 - 1433 of 1453 Edit
0 4 0
RDSB WISHFUL THINKING PERHAPS FOR THE LONG LONG TERM


waldron
16 Aug '18 - 14:34 - 3451 of 3480 Edit
0 4 0
Should be fun to chalk it up BOX BY BOX


2175 to 2275p

2275 to 2375p$$$$$$$$$$WE ARE HERE TODAY$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
2375 to 2475p
2475 to 2575p
2575 to 2675p $$$$$$$$$$WE WERE HERE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
2675 to 2775p
2775
2875
2975 to 3075p xmas 2019
3075
3175
3275
3375 to 3475p xmas 2020

A SLOW snail like CRAWL TO FJGOOONERS DREAM TARGET PRICE OF 3400p which may well be changed if convincingly surpassed before CHRISTMAS 2020


31st december 2018 WE HAD HOPED TO END THE YEAR IN THE 2675 to 2775p BOX
but alas we have to accept putting up with 2340p in the 2275 to 2375p BOX


so we end january at Shell B
2,368.5 +3.63%

[stewart64] 31/1/2019 19:38

Pleasing we have cover on the dividend now $2.88 EPS/ $1.88.

[waldron] 31/1/2019 17:46

Shell Appoints Former Johnson Matthey Chief As Non-Executive Director
Thu, 31st Jan 2019 17:34


LONDON (Alliance News) - Royal Dutch Shell PLC said on Thursday it has appointed Neil Carson as non-executive director, effective from June 1.

Carson is currently chair at Oxford Instruments PLC and TT Electronics PLC, and his most recent executive role was chief executive officer at chemicals group Johnson Matthey PLC for ten years from 2004 to 2014.

"As a non-executive director, Neil brings a track record of utilizing well his strong operational exposure, familiarity with capital intensive business and a first-class international perspective on driving value in complex environments," said Chair Chad Holliday.

Earlier on Thursday, Royal Dutch Shell reported current cost of supply (CCS) earnings excluding identified items attributable to shareholders, the firm's preferred metric, rose 36% to USD21.40 billion in 2018 from USD15.76 billion in 2017. Analyst consensus had predicted CCS earnings of USD20.98 billion.

Revenue for 2018 came in at USD388.38 billion, up 27% from USD305.18 billion last year.

Royal Dutch Shell's Class A shares closed up 3.8% at 2,362.00 pence, while its B shares closed up 3.7% at 2,368.88p on Thursday.

By Dayo Laniyan; [e-mail]