Shell Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 06/2/2019 15:01

Electric cars will kill oil demand within decade, Bank of America predicts
Published time: 6 Feb, 2019 14:03
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Electric cars will kill oil demand within decade, Bank of America predicts
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Bank of America Merill Lynch sees a peak in global demand for crude oil around 2030, followed by a period of rapid decline as a result of the electrification of transportation.

For the next decade or so, oil demand should continue to grow, although at a slower and slower rate. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the annual increase in global oil consumption slows dramatically in the years ahead. By 2024, demand growth halves, falling to just 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), down from 1.2 mb/d this year.

But by 2030, demand growth zeros out as consumption hits a permanent peak, before falling at a relatively rapid rate thereafter.

The main driver of the destruction in demand is the proliferation of electric vehicles.
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Bank of America did offer a few caveats and uncertainties. The growth of EVs hinges on a handful of key metals. Lithium, for instance, is mined and produced in large concentrations in a few Latin American countries.

But cobalt looms as a larger concern for some automakers. Roughly 62 percent global cobalt output is found in the Democratic Republic of Congo. An executive from Ford said recently that automakers might feel compelled to invest directly in cobalt production over fears of securing adequate supply. “I fully anticipate we’re going to keep a lot of pressure on that cobalt production,” Ted Miller, head of energy storage strategy and research at Ford, said at a mining event in South Africa. “Today it looks feasible but it’s a scenario we’re going to have to watch.”

The DRC just held a divisive election, and although the transfer of power has been mostly peaceful, the country has historically suffered from political instability. “Any major disruption to cobalt today would likely curb EV proliferation in the early 2020s, in turn supporting long dated crude oil prices,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned.
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There are alternatives to cobalt, but that would merely put pressure on other materials. “Car producers may gradually substitute from cobalt to nickel over the next two decades. In turn, this shift may lead to soaring demand for nickel, creating another supply squeeze as mine expansion plans are limited,” BofAML analysts wrote in their report.

There are a long list of other uncertainties that complicate such medium- and long-term forecasting. A brewing economic downturn, which may or may not hit in the next year or next few years, could linger into the 2020s. That would alter oil demand forecasts, but in complicated ways. Slower economic growth would put a dent in oil prices via lower demand, but a lower price itself could keep consumers hooked.

The EV market is also rife with uncertainty. EV sales are growing quickly, with the number of EVs on the roads picking up pace. Automakers are set to roll out dozens of new models, which will expand choice and awareness, while also making progress on price, range, and performance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees EVs having a “meaningful negative impact” on oil demand from 2021 onwards.
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Then, of course, there is the small matter of policy, which can cut both ways. Bank of America said that “the US's feeble commitments to climate action, fuel efficiency standards, and sulphur-limit reductions in shipping (IMO),” could slow EV adoption. But the next administration could also reverse course and step up climate ambition.

Even when breaking down oil demand into various segments, there is a lot of change going on. “EVs are shifting demand away from gasoline, IMO causes switching into diesel, and strong petchems demand growth is shifting demand toward the light part of the barrel, including NGLs in particular,” BofAML wrote. “We are at the beginning of a new age of uncertainty for oil producers, refiners and miners alike.”

Nevertheless, despite all of those uncertainties, the outlines of the trajectory are clear. Oil demand in the developed world saw a temporary boost over the last four years or so because of the collapse of oil prices. That has mostly run its course.

Demand “should return to outright declines as the price effect wears off and efficiency takes over,” BofAML wrote.
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Emerging market demand should continue to grow as more people acquire cars. China, however, has made a major EV push and its demand growth is already starting to slow.

“The major driver of structural change in oil demand trends in the next five years and beyond is expected to be electric vehicles,” BofAML said. By 2020, EVs will capture 5 percent of global vehicle sales, which will balloon to 40 percent by 2030, before rising to 95 percent by 2050.

All of that implies a peak in oil demand by 2030, a little over a decade from now. We are in the midst of the “biggest structural shift in demand growth since the proliferation of the car began in the early 1900s,” BofAML concluded.

This article was originally published on Oilprice.com

[fjgooner] 06/2/2019 14:20

flyinggogo,

Here is some more data that I've assembled if it's of any use to you.

Ex-dividend date 2 day move - 1 day share price (close) + 1 day + 1 week

May 19, 2016 97.01% 1,741 -78 1,663 -52 1,689 -48 1,693
August 11, 2016 100.91% 1,984 21 2,005 18 2,002 35 2,019
November 10, 2016 94.22% 2,163 -28 2,135 -125 2,038 -84 2,079
February 16, 2017 96.09% 2,274 -49 2,225 -89 2,185 -92 2,182
May 18, 2017 96.22% 2,250 -89 2,161 -85 2,165 -89 2,161
August 10, 2017 97.20% 2,246 -44 2,202 -63 2,183 -85 2,161
November 16, 2017 97.41% 2,436 -58 2,378 -63 2,373 -52 2,384
February 15, 2018 98.66% 2,319 -40 2,279 -31 2,288 -28 2,291
May 10, 2018 99.56% 2,722 -29 2,693 -12 2,710 83 2,805
August 9, 2018 96.87% 2,653 -49 2,604 -83 2,570 -140 2,513
November 15, 2018 101.95% 2,406 41 2,447 47 2,453 -12 2,394

[maywillow] 06/2/2019 13:56

Real Change

Oil companies are listening now to their activists shareholders who are demanding that they reduce their greenhouse gases while also becoming more transparent about it. BP did so this month. Royal Dutch Shell made a similar commitment in December. And Exxon Mobil agreed in 2017 to give shareholders full insight into the financial and technological risks it faces as a result of a world that is trending toward lower CO2 emissions.

Meantime, BP, Chevron Corp., Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell and Equinor ASA have said that the best way to address climate change is through a carbon tax, which they say is more efficient than an international patchwork of laws. Most of those oil companies have said they support the Paris climate agreement, largely because they have major investments in natural gas, which has become the leading fuel to replace to coal for electric generation.

None of this moves Donald Trump, who is a climate denier and who has withdrawn from global talks. But it does motivate the free market, which could render the U.S. president and his positions as impotent.

[flyinggogo] 06/2/2019 13:54

Thanks, will have a look back further wrt price movements around ex-divi dates.

[fjgooner] 06/2/2019 13:48

I have been tracing RDSB share price behaviour for some time now.

The last dividend that went ex-div on November 15, 2018 acted quite strangely.

The closing price the day before ex-div was 2,406.
The closing price on ex-div day was 2,447
The closing price the day after ex-div day was 2,453.

However, I usually pencil in a 1.5% drop for ex-div day for RDSB, so I would expect a 2500p price drop to around 2462p.

[flyinggogo] 06/2/2019 13:08

Anyone else see resistance at 2500p? I think we might test it before the ex divi drops us to the 2400p mark

[maywillow] 06/2/2019 11:34

Total Could Take on Shell With Bid for Utility Firm Eneco
By Francois De Beaupuy
, Ruth David
, and Dinesh Nair
4 février 2019 à 12:57 UTC+1

Engie, Macquarie and Mitsubishi may also be interested
Dutch utility Eneco is one of the largest in the Netherlands

Total SA Gas Station Operations As Oil Sinks To Lowest in Almost 7 Years

Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg
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In this article
RDSA
ROYAL DUTCH SH-A
2,450.50
GBp
-9.50-0.39%
ENGI
ENGIE
13.92
EUR
-0.18-1.28%
CL1
WTI Crude
53.31
USD/bbl.
-0.35-0.65%
ENEL
ENEL SPA
5.17
EUR
-0.01-0.15%
MQG
MACQUARIE GROUP
120.56
AUD
+2.08+1.76%

French oil giant Total SA is working with advisers as it weighs an offer for Eneco Groep NV, joining a number of financial and industry bidders for the Dutch utility, including rival Royal Dutch Shell Plc, people familiar with the matter said.

The firm, which is owned by dozens of Dutch municipalities and is due to be auctioned this year, could fetch as much as 4 billion euros ($4.6 billion), said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. It joins companies including Engie SA, Enel SpA, Macquarie Group Ltd. and Mitsubishi Corp., which may also be interested in the asset, they said.

Total and Shell are working to sell energy directly to customers, using the power business as a hedge against a potential drop in gasoline and diesel demand as European governments promote electric cars and introduce more stringent rules on carbon emissions.

Representatives for Total, Eneco, Enel, Engie and Macquarie declined to comment. A representative for Mitsubishi didn’t have an immediate response when contacted outside of regular business hours.

Last month, Shell said it planned to team up with Dutch pension fund PGGM to bid for Eneco, following a 2017 deal that gave the oil major direct access to the U.K. retail market.

Deal activity for European utilities has surged in the past year on the back of large transactions such as China Three Gorges Corp.’s 9.1 billion-euro bid to take control of Portugal’s EDP-Energias de Portugal SA and German utility EON SE’s offer for Innogy SE. Last month, a plan by Danish utility Orsted A/S to sell power distribution assets worth almost $4 billion was scuppered after the country’s finance ministry said there was no political backing for the sale.

The Dutch government must be notified of any change in control at Eneco, giving legislators the power to block or amend the sale, Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy Eric Wiebes wrote in letter to the lower house of parliament last month.

For Total, an acquisition of Eneco would boost its clean-power production and retail portfolio, following its purchase Belgian utility Lampiris SA in 2016 and French utility Direct Energie last year. Total has said it aims to have more than 6 million power and gas customers in France and 1 million in Belgium by 2022.

— With assistance by Wout Vergauwen
(Updates sixth paragraph with details of utility deals.)

[maywillow] 06/2/2019 11:29

Total would be part of a long list of contenders for the takeover of the Dutch company, Eneco. The oil major would already work with several advisers to make this acquisition which could amount to 4 billion euros, believes Bloomberg. The company specializing in the production of green energy belongs to dozens of Dutch municipalities. It has more than 2 million customers in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and the United Kingdom. In addition to Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Engie, Enel, Macquarie Group and Mitsubishi are on the line.

Total, along with other giants in the oil industry, are trying to become less dependent on black gold by entering the electricity sales market. With this in mind, the French group has already achieved several fine deals with the acquisition of the Belgian company Lampiris in 2016 and Direct Energie last year. By 2022, Total aims to have more than 6 million customers in electricity and gas in France, and 1 million in Belgium.

[maywillow] 06/2/2019 09:12

Ex-dividend date February 14, 2019
Record date February 15, 2019
Closing date for currency election (see Note below) March 1, 2019
Pounds sterling and euro equivalents announcement date March 11, 2019
Payment date March 25, 2019

[adrian j boris] 06/2/2019 07:33

European markets seen lower after Trump’s speech
Published 39 min ago
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19




Key Points

The FTSE 100 is seen 12 points lower at 7,165, the CAC is expected to open down around 15 points at 5,068, while the DAX is poised to start 9 points lower at 11,358, according to IG.
Market focus was largely attuned to President Donald Trump’s state of the union address on Tuesday, after he vowed to build a wall that is a source of a deep partisan divide.

European stocks are set to open slightly lower Wednesday morning, as market participants monitor another batch of earnings results.

The FTSE 100 is seen 12 points lower at 7,165, the CAC is expected to open down around 15 points at 5,068, while the DAX is poised to start 9 points lower at 11,358, according to IG.

[waldron] 05/2/2019 17:21

FTSE 100
7,177.37 +2.04%
Dow Jones
25,384.3 +0.57%
CAC 40
5,083.34 +1.66%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 62.25 -0.42%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.44 +0.40%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.70 +1.32%


WTI (WTI)
- 05/02 17:57:27
53.88 USD -1.55%



Eni
14.94 +1.04%


Total
48.9 +1.68%

Engie
14.1 +1.18%

Orange
13.63 +1.23%



BP
547 +5.17%


Shell A
2,460 +1.95%


Shell B
2,487 +2.30%

SO WE HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO THE 2475 to 2575p BOX
PREMIUM HAS RISEN TO 27p
all should be confirmed in coming days

[grupo] 05/2/2019 15:25

SURPRISED AT INVESTORCHRONICLES OPINION BUT MANY HAVE STARTED TO FOCUS ON DEBT


By Graeme Davies

Shares in London have built upon their recent recovery with another rise again in morning trading, boosted by positive news from blue chips. Click here for The Trader Nicole Elliott's latest views on the markets.

IC TIP UPDATES:

Fourth quarter (and full-year) results for BP (BP.) tell two stories. The first - consensus-beating profitability, a lower tax rate and a particularly resilient downstream business - will win headlines. And with a reserves replacement ratio of 100 per cent for the year (or 209 per cent including acquisitions such as BHP's US shale portfolio), the oil major can claim to be ahead of rival Royal Dutch Shell on one traditionally-watched metric. However, this expansion has come with rising debt, while cash flow was again insufficient to cover the cost of capital expenditure, dividends and the somewhat confusing share buyback programme. The shares are up 4 per cent today, though we remain sellers.

[10acious] 05/2/2019 08:46

Tend to agree.I am a little surprised there was not a small increase in the first quarter 2019 dividend announced! But then the current yield is at an reasonable level... a sustained lift in the share price is required to bring the yield down and make them review the dividend.

[sogoesit] 05/2/2019 08:21

BP announced an increased dividend today. Plus 2.5% y-o-y.
This continued buy-back lark at RDS doesn’t do it any favours in my book.

[waldron] 05/2/2019 07:04

European markets seen higher; BP set to report earnings
Published 29 min ago
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19




Key Points

The FTSE 100 is seen 28 points higher at 7,062, the CAC is expected to open up around 13 points at 5,013, while the DAX is poised to start 17 points higher at 11,194, according to IG.
Market focus is largely attuned to the latest batch of corporate results, after fourth-quarter earnings helped to push the S&P 500 slightly higher on Monday.

European stocks are set to open higher Tuesday morning, as overnight strength on Wall Street underpinned appetite for riskier assets.
European Markets: FTSE, GDAXI, FCHI, IBEX
TICKER COMPANY NAME PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE VOLUME
FTSE FTSE 100 FTSE 7034.13 13.91 0.20 630918085
DAX DAX DAX 11176.58 0.00 0.00 0
CAC CAC CAC 5000.19 0.00 0.00 72849730

The FTSE 100 is seen 28 points higher at 7,062, the CAC is expected to open up around 13 points at 5,013, while the DAX is poised to start 17 points higher at 11,194, according to IG.

Market focus is largely attuned to the latest batch of corporate results, after fourth-quarter earnings helped to push the S&P 500 slightly higher on Monday.

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares, excluding Japan, rose 0.4 percent — hovering close to a four-month high.

Trading was subdued on Tuesday, with many of Asia’s financial markets closed for the Lunar New Year. China’s financial markets are closed all week, with South Korea’s index set to reopen on Thursday.

Back in Europe, Austria’s AMS, Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo and Britain’s BP are all expected to release their latest quarterly earnings results on Tuesday morning.

Market participants are also likely to closely monitor the release of Spain’s consumer confidence figures at around 9:00 a.m. London time.

The euro area is scheduled to publish month-on-month retail sales data for December later in the session.

[ariane] 04/2/2019 20:32

Shell and partners start deep-water production at Lula North in Brazil

Published by Aimee Knight, Editorial Assistant
Energy Global, Monday, 04 February 2019 20:25

Royal Dutch Shell plc, through its subsidiary Shell Brasil Petróleo Ltda. has announced with consortium partners the start of production at the Lula North deep-water project in the Brazilian Santos Basin.

Production at Lula North is processed by the P-67 floating production and storage offloading vessel (FPSO) and is operated by Petrobras. The production hub is the seventh FPSO deployed at Lula and the third in a series of standardised vessels built for the consortium. It is designed to process up to 150 000 bbls and 6 million m3 of natural gas per day.

Shell and its partners began production at Lula Extreme South with the P-69 FPSO in October 2018.

Shell has a 25% stake in the Lula consortium, operated by Petrobras (65%). Galp, through its subsidiary Petrogal Brasil, holds the remaining 10% interest. Discovered in 2006, Lula is the largest producing field in Brazil and accounts for 30% of the country’s oil and gas production.