Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 31/1/2019 17:38

There was an impressive increase in volume traded today and no doubt this will increase in after hours

i now expect a continuence of this up trenD well into the 2375 to 2475p BOX

[waldron] 31/1/2019 17:24

FTSE 100
6,968.85 +0.39%
Dow Jones
24,990.93 -0.10%
CAC 40
4,992.72 +0.36%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 62.17 +1.02%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.41 +0.24%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.81 -1.51%

WTI (WTI)
- 31/01 17:54:47
55.29 USD +1.51%


Total
47.98 +2.04%


Engie
13.985 +0.65%

Orange
13.57 +0.44%

Eni
14.806 +1.11%



BP
520.1 +1.70%


Shell A
2,362 +3.78%


Shell B
2,368.5 +3.63%

an impressive performance today and end of month
shame it could break into the 2375 to 2475p BOX

apparently theres a GAP up to 2675p or maybe a little higher

Tomorrow and next week should be interesting and important as analysts intrepret the figures and
outlook to determine new targets

Again surprised by premium at 6.5p

[fjgooner] 31/1/2019 16:02

Just finished watching the Live webcast and the following analysts Q&A.

All very impressive and some very good clarification on the reserve replacement topic (in the Q&A section).

Shell normally replaces the live webcast link with a "repeat" version within a short period of time with downloadable slides. Well worth a review later for those who missed it earlier.

The link was posted above, but here it is again:

[la forge] 31/1/2019 15:25

Royal Dutch Shell PLC doubled its 2018 profit as strong crude prices and belt tightening have kept Big Oil on track to deliver healthy returns.

The British-Dutch oil giant said Thursday that profit on a cost-of-supplies basis -- a number similar to the net income that U.S. companies report -- was $23.8 billion, its highest level since the crude price crash in 2014.

The results reflect a broader effort by the energy industry to be profitable with oil prices at $60 a barrel or lower following the downturn.

"We delivered on our promises for the year," said Chief Executive Ben van Beurden. "We will continue with a strong delivery focus in 2019, with a disciplined approach to capital investment."

Shell shares were trading 4% higher in London on Thursday.

Big oil companies' profits slumped amid a world-wide plunge in oil prices that began in 2014 and lasted several years, prompting them to throttle back spending.

Shell itself launched a $30 billion divestment program, which it completed last year, and slashed jobs and production. In the first quarter of this year, it expects its integrated gas output to fall by as much as 170,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

As prices recovered, the major oil companies' profits ballooned.

Free cash flow -- a closely watched measure in the energy industry -- increased 42% to $39.4 billion from $27.6 billion a year earlier, when Shell suffered losses on hedging for LNG shipments, as well as other currency-related losses.

Still, Shell's capital expenditure rose to $23 billion from $20.8 billion a year earlier due to investments in exploration and joint ventures.

"By streamlining their operation in the last few years Shell have given themselves flexibility and the slight increase in capital expenditure is one of the fallout," said Richard Hunter, the head of markets at the U.K.-based Interactive Investor. "Still, I'm not overly concerned. The negatives are few and far between."

The company maintained its quarterly dividend at 47 cents a share and declared a final dividend for the year of $1.88 a share, unchanged from the previous year.

Shell also announced the third stage of its share buyback program for a total of $2.5 billion in the period until the end of April.

As the industry's fortunes improve, calls are increasing for the industry to shoulder its corporate responsibility in relation to the environment.

The next big challenge for the industry will be the market forces that are pushing for the major oil companies to get on board with the 2015 Paris climate accord and help lower global carbon emissions from fossil fuels, which have been linked to rising global temperatures and more extreme weather patterns.

A group of more than 4,500 shareholders working under the umbrella of the Netherlands-based group Follow This have been urging Shell, BP PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Equinor ASA to set and publish targets that are aligned with the goals of the accord and limit the rise in global temperatures to below 2degC.

The shareholders started advocating for the major oil companies to publish their targets in 2016. Now a wider group of investors is asking Exxon and Chevron to publish their carbon footprint reduction targets.

On climate matters, Shell is "ahead if the curve...when it comes to enforcing discipline and good behavior in relation to Paris," said Mr. van Beurden. Last December, Shell said it would publish short-term emissions targets tied to executive pay. Other major oil companies are expected to follow suit, say industry experts.

But Shell's targets still fall short of the necessary reductions, said Follow This member Mark van Baal. "Shell is truly industry leading but is not aligned with Paris yet," he said.

Write to Neanda Salvaterra at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2019 09:52 ET (14:52 GMT)

[la forge] 31/1/2019 15:16

Shell beats forecast and rocky oil prices to post best annual profits for five years

by RUSSELL LYNCH

The Evening Standard


Shell is reaping the benefits of cost savings since its 2016 mega-merger with BG


Oil major Royal Dutch Shell — the biggest dividend payer into UK pension pots — posted its best annual profits for five years on Thursday despite volatile oil prices.

Shell is reaping the benefits of cost savings since its 2016 mega-merger with BG, as well as sell-offs and a big run higher in oil prices during the first nine months of last year.

Oil prices collapsed from four-year highs of $86 a barrel to around $50 a barrel within weeks, but the firm still managed a forecast-beating 36% jump in annual profits to $21.9 billion (£19.1 billion).

Its shares propped up the FTSE 100’s gains as a result today as the stock rose nearly 4% or 87.5p to 2373p.

Rival BP rose in tandem ahead of its own results next month, gaining 8.3p to 519.7p.

Shell’s giant corporate cash machine generated a huge $49.6 billion in cashflow last year, funding $3.9 billion in dividend payouts in the final quarter as well as a $25 billion buyback programme.

“We’re going to do it all, we need to do it all,” chief financial officer Jessica Uhl said.

But analysts also flagged up a potential problem in the longer term as the firm only added 700 million barrels in new reserves, compared with production of about 1.4 billion barrels.

That put its closely watched reserve-replacement ratio at 53% last year, well below the three-year average of 96%.

[la forge] 31/1/2019 14:27

thanks fjg

[fjgooner] 31/1/2019 14:09

Live webcast now on at:



3rd link, on the right.

[la forge] 31/1/2019 13:59

Natural Gas 31 Jan 2019 | 13:16 UTC London

Shell eyes higher Egypt LNG exports, mulls number of global LNG projects

Author Stuart Elliott Editor Alisdair Bowles Commodity Natural Gas Topic LNG Market Evolution

Highlights

Role in Qatar LNG expansion would make 'a lot of sense'

Continues work toward FIDs at Nigeria, Russia

LNG projects Shell LNG trading going from 'strength to strength': CFO

London — Shell hopes to increase LNG exports from its Idku plant in Egypt in 2019 having stepped up supplies in the latter part of last year, its head of integrated gas, Maarten Wetselaar, said Thursday.
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Speaking to reporters following the release of Shell's Q4 earnings, Wetselaar also said Shell sees potential to expand its LNG business through new project approvals and participation in the Qatari LNG expansion.

"We've seen an uptick in gas availability in Egypt recently so we've been exporting LNG and we expect to see that increase further in 2019," he said.

Egypt, he said, is now self-sufficient in gas, enabling Shell to resume more regular LNG exports having been restricted to just the occasional cargo over the past few years.

The rampup of the Eni-operated Zohr field has been instrumental in Egypt halting LNG imports and becoming a regular exporter again. Egypt's other LNG export plant, the Eni-operated Damietta facility, remains idled, however.

According to data from S&P Global Platts Analytics, Idku has exported 12 cargoes since October last year, having only shipped nine in 2018 up till then.
LIQUEFACTION, TRADING

Increased gas availability across Shell's LNG portfolio saw liquefaction volumes in Q4 rise by 3% year on year to 8.78 million mt, with its integrated gas business -- essentially its gas for LNG, LNG and gas-to-liquids business -- seeing earnings rise by 44% to $2.36 billion.

CFO Jessica Uhl said LNG trading had a good quarter and was going "from strength to strength."

"We had good positioning with our existing contracts so we were able to optimize, and we also took advantage of short-term opportunities," she said.

Wetselaar said benefiting from increased gas availability for its LNG plants was the "biggest value opportunity for the onstream part of our business."

Related special report

Supercooled: The evolving LNG fleet driving the global gas boom

The global LNG fleet grew at its fastest rate ever in 2018, with newer and better technologies. But was this enough to absorb the vast amount of new LNG supply coming 2019, mainly from the US, and still keep freight rates at affordable levels?
Download

He cited extra feed gas serving the Gorgon plant in Australia, Oman LNG, Nigeria LNG and Atlantic LNG in Trinidad and Tobago in Q4.
QATAR EXPANSION, NEW TRAINS

Shell also remains active in looking at expanding existing projects and taking part in new ones.

In particular, Wetselaar said Shell wanted a stake in the planned four-train expansion in Qatar, taking the country's LNG production capacity from 77 million mt/year to 110 million mt/year.

"Qatar is scouting for investors -- clearly there is a lot more appetite than there is space," he said.

"It would make a lot of commercial sense for us to be part of that development and we will participate and hope to win," he said.

Other energy majors reportedly interested in a stake in the Qatar expansion include US companies ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, France's Total, Norway's Equinor and Italy's Eni.

Elsewhere, Wetselaar said it was possible that the final investment decision on the seventh train at Nigeria LNG could be taken by the end of 2019.

"There is a lot of enthusiasm and it would make sense to expand the plant as Nigeria is not molecule-constrained," he said.

But, he said, "these FIDs are complex from a financial, regulatory and stakeholder perspective, and it takes time to line up all the strands before proposing FID."

Train 7 would boost Nigeria LNG production capacity by 8 million mt/year to 30 million mt/year.
RUSSIA, AUSTRALIA

Wetselaar also said talks continued on the proposed third train at Sakhalin LNG and the Baltic LNG plant in Russia.

On Sakahlin LNG, he said: "If we can secure [feed] gas on good terms we will build the third train, if not we'll spend our money elsewhere."

And for Baltic LNG -- the planned 10 million mt/year facility closer to Europe -- Wetselaar said work with partner Gazprom was ongoing to understand the "technical and commercial feasibility."

Finally, at its Prelude floating LNG project off Australia, CEO Ben van Beurden said four of seven upstream wells were now operational as part of project commissioning. "We are preparing for first LNG," van Beurden said.

Asked whether there were liquefaction issues at Prelude, Wetselaar said only that the company was focused on process safety. "We'll turn it on when it's ready to turn on," he said.

-- Stuart Elliott, [e-mail]

-- Edited by Alisdair Bowles, [e-mail]

[la forge] 31/1/2019 13:56

Investors delight as Royal Dutch Shell tops expectations to reveal bumper profits thanks to higher oil prices

Royal Dutch Shell shares are up 4.5 per cent today as results beat expectations
It generated its biggest profits for four years, thanks in part to higher oil prices
It flagged the end of its radical divestment drive but will keep cutting costs

By Emily Hardy For This Is Money

Published: 12:00 GMT, 31 January 2019 | Updated: 12:00 GMT, 31 January 2019

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View comments

Royal Dutch Shell shares are in demand today after the oil giant lifted the lid on its biggest profit haul for four years - beating City expectations.

It said earnings spiked 36 per cent to £16.3billion in 2018, thanks in part to higher oil prices throughout the bulk of last year. As the price of oil came down in the last few months, Shell was boosted by higher gas prices.

The performance sent Shell's share price up by more than 4 per cent on Thursday morning and helped to buoy the overall FTSE 100.
+1

Royal Dutch Shell's full year profits spiked 36 per cent to £16.3billion in 2018

Chief executive Ben van Beurden said the company 'delivered on its promises'.

In the last few years, van Beurden has led a radical cost cutting drive and been selling off assets to help Shell fully recover from the oil price crash in 2014 that wracked the industry.

Today, he cheered the completion of his $30billion divestment initiative. Shell is bracing for declining production in some of its divisions, however, as a result.
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Van Beurden pledged to remain disciplined on spending this year as a more than two-year oil price rally finally ran out of steam last autumn amid concerns of a slowdown in demand.

'The sharp decline in the oil price certainly hasn't hurt Royal Dutch Shell's ability to improve its profitability,' says Micheal Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets.

Commenting on the move in Shell's share price today, Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: 'The bar is always set high for Shell and, on the whole, the company delivers. In these numbers, the ongoing benefits of a multi-year streamlining operation are crystal clear.'

'The positive reaction to the results is well deserved,' he added. 'It makes some amends for a share price which has drifted 8 per cent over the last year.'

[la forge] 31/1/2019 13:43

LOOKING FORWARD ALSO TO


31/01/19 |

15:00


Year 2018 Results presentation

[la forge] 31/1/2019 13:41

Earnings Preview" at 1242 GMT on Wednesday.

[la forge] 31/1/2019 13:40

Adjusted CCS earnings attributable to shareholders--Shell's preferred metric--came to $5.69 billion in the fourth quarter. "Shell 4Q Profit Rose After Benefiting from Higher Oil and Gas Prices," at 0723 GMT, misstated the metric adjusted CCS earnings in the third paragraph. Shell's preferred metric is adjusted CCS earnings attributable to shareholders, not adjusted CCS earnings. The mistake was also made in the third paragraph of "Shell Forecast to See Rising Sales in 4Q 2018 -- Earnings Preview" at 1242 GMT on Wednesday.

-0-

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 31, 2019 08:12 ET (13:12 GMT)

[la forge] 31/1/2019 12:41

I AM REALLY LUVIN IT

SHELL HAS MANAGED TO PULL UP ALL EUROPEAN OIL AND GAS MAJORS

just hope these other majors do not disappoint during eary february





you SHELL me mine forever

[la forge] 31/1/2019 12:29

US stock futures point to mixed open after Fed signals patience with rate hikes
Published 4 hours ago | Updated 16 min ago
Fred Imbert
@foimbert
Spriha Srivastava
@spriha




watch now
VIDEO00:56
Wall Street set for mixed open ahead of key earnings reports

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed start to trading on Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

At 7:05 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures implied a drop of about 30 points at the open. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pointed to a slightly higher open.

On Wednesday, the Fed said it will be “patient”; with raising rates moving forward. In a statement, the central bank said: “The Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate. ” The statement also dropped the word “gradual.̶1;

The Fed addressed the balance sheet, which had been a concern for investors, in a separate statement. The Fed said it “is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments.”

Stocks shot up on the back of the statement, with the major indexes rising at least 1.55 percent on Wednesday. Those gains put the S&P 500 on track to post its best January performance since 1989. The broad index is up nearly 7 percent this month.

The central bank’s statement came in the middle of the busiest week of the earnings season. When the week is over, more than 100 S&P 500 companies will have reported earnings.

On Thursday, General Electric posted weaker-than-expected earnings but its shares surged 7 percent on strong revenue. Amazon and Yum China are among the companies scheduled to report after the bell Thursday.

Investors also monitored weak China data. On Thursday, China’s official data showed that manufacturing activity in January contracted for the second consecutive month.

[la forge] 31/1/2019 12:27

Shell B
2,371 +3.74%

[la forge] 31/1/2019 12:19

EdmondJ
31 Jan '19 - 12:16 - 4863 of 4863
0 1 0


Cheers ED


Here's Citi.

Central to the RDS investment proposition is prioritisation of
shareholders, through a combination of a high dividend payout and a buyback programme. However the debate, in our view, is at what cost? It is clear that the financial framework to support this is finely balanced: dividends have been flat now for 20 quarters and are unlikely to rise, while the ongoing struggles around reservelife relative to peers suggest there is limited capacity for real growth in the business. Flat dividends and limited growth is hardly enticing in a world of rising rates. Sell.


MUST ADMIT NOT IMPRESSED AS MOST IF NOT ALL CENTRAL BANKS ARE AT PRESENT TRYING TO KEEP INTEREST RATES LOW

[edmondj] 31/1/2019 12:16

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB:LSE): Last: 2,382, up 96.83 (+4.24%), High: 2,393, Low:

Though as usual with Shell it's hard word due to hedging and stuff. Kepler can summarise better than I.

Q4 clean net income came in at USD5.7bn (+32% YOY, and +1% QOQ) c.
USD0.4bn or 6% above our estimates (KECH USD5.34bn, consensus
USD5.28bn). The beat came from the refining segment (see table below).
Operating cash flow (ex. WCR, pre-interest) was USD12.9bn (KECH
USD11.59bn), 11% above our estimates, helped by a USD1.62bn positive
impact from derivatives (including the margin call on hedging
derivatives). Stripping out that item, underlying cash flow (ex WCR) was
USD11.3bn, broadly in line with our estimates. CFFO (pre-interests) was
stellar at USD22bn, benefitting from a massive WCR of USD9.1bn (due to
the fall in oil prices), but a reassuring feature after the adverse WC
outflow over the last 12 months.

Capital investment was USD8bn in Q4
2018 and USD24.7bn over FY 2018 (in line with guidance). On buy-backs,
Shell announced the third tranche of USD2.5bn. The reserves
replacement ratio was poor at c. 53% (as expected, as despite the LNG
Canada FID, few reserves would be booked on that project). Shell
confirmed that the 2019 capex guidance will stay firmly within the
USD25-30bn range; an outcome at the lower end would be welcome but
that was not specified in the press release.

Throwing off cash while running down its reserve life .... fair enough I guess.

Here's Citi.

Central to the RDS investment proposition is prioritisation of
shareholders, through a combination of a high dividend payout and a buyback programme. However the debate, in our view, is at what cost? It is clear that the financial framework to support this is finely balanced: dividends have been flat now for 20 quarters and are unlikely to rise, while the ongoing struggles around reservelife relative to peers suggest there is limited capacity for real growth in the business. Flat dividends and limited growth is hardly enticing in a world of rising rates. Sell.

Is RDS enticing versus the market? Against a 2018 delivery of
12.4% ROE, and expectations that returns can expand a little more, the current valuation of 1.4x book looks inexpensive. But that value-framework is also true of many other Integrated Oils in Europe. A key difference between RDS and peers lies in reserve-life, which at 8.5 years (down from 8.8 years end-17) is 30% below the peer average. Some criticize the SEC reserve metric, but we see it as the only tangible, audited metric that investors have to judge the robustness of future growth. 30% less visibility than peers, in our view, deserves a valuation discount to peers.

[montyhedge] 31/1/2019 11:42

We are on fire, lol. For me the next one is Vodafone.

[grupo guitarlumber] 31/1/2019 11:37

now in header of rdsa

cheers forge and EJ

[la forge] 31/1/2019 11:21

thanks for that EJ

TO THOSE RUNNING THE RDSB AND RDSA THREADS

PERHAPS SOMETHING FOR THE HEADER

[la forge] 31/1/2019 11:14

Shell B
2,381.5 +4.20%


whata great day