Shell Share Discussion Threads

[xxxxxy] 19/3/2024 21:41

Sales of electric vehicles fell back last year, accounting for 16.5pc of new cars sold, compared with 16.6pc in 2022. There were the predictable calls for yet more subsidies, but it must surely be becoming clear to everyone that EVs are unlikely to save the motor industry – even with the Government’s 2035 ban on the sale of new petrol or diesel vehicles.

Despite changing habits, the war on motorists is being waged with as much zeal as ever before. This week alone, the highly influential and well-funded Tony Blair Institute called again for road pricing to charge motorists for every mile they cover – a tax that will steadily rise over time – and we also learned that charges for parking at hospitals have on average risen by 50pc over the last year alone.


The days when Henry Ford could proudly proclaim “I will build a car for the great multitude…constructed of the best materials, by the best men to be hired” are now firmly in the past. We are stumbling into a new era for cars.

Here’s the problem, however. We have hardly even begun to think about the impact that will have on the wider economy. The overwhelming majority of journeys in this country (roughly 60pc) are taken by car.

Our public transport systems are inadequate. Humans are adaptable, and we can never know what the future holds, but it should trouble us that the model which has developed over the century – which saw car ownership grow and grow – may soon be shattered.

It is not unimaginable that the suburbs will start to empty out, and city centres that are already overcrowded will become even more packed, as people move to places where public transport is accessible. Prices will soar in the city centres to even more ridiculous levels, while much of the suburban housing stock, built on the assumption that a car was easily affordable, will steadily fall into a state of disrepair.

But it is not just property that will go up in price. Inflation will run out of control, as out-of-town supermarkets start to close because no one has a car to get to them anymore, and the cheap and efficient distribution of food and goods that they enabled has to be replaced by far more expensive small urban stores and markets.

Schools and hospitals could be left redundant, since many of them are inaccessible without private transport, and taxes will have to go up even further to pay for all that infrastructure to be replaced (even assuming that anyone can find the space for schools that kids can always walk to). Those tax rises will slowly squeeze the life out of businesses.

Domestic tourism will surely collapse, since in this country it consists almost entirely of small hotels and holiday lets in villages and countryside that, while lovely to look at, can only be reached by car.

Since tourism accounts for 10pc of the UK’s GDP, that would make the whole country a lot poorer.

The countryside could fall into depression, given that it can hardly function without cars, and few forms of economic activity will remain viable. The list goes on and on.

Sure, the net zero ideologues and the de-growth crowd will celebrate the demise of the automobile, just as they champion “15-minute cities” and low traffic neighbourhoods. They will argue that we will all be better off on foot, on a bicycle, or else getting around on an electric bus. It will be more sustainable and better for the environment. We might even be happier.

Well, perhaps. No doubt, we will muddle through somehow; after all, the Victorians managed to get by without cars and the economy still functioned.

But as with so many aspects of net zero, there’s the persistent and unnerving feeling that we are making drastic changes to our society and economy with little consideration of the consequences.

Are people willing to be poorer? To relinquish what has long been a symbol of modernity and freedom? An economy with fewer cars could be a weaker one, and we have not even begun to prepare for that.

[chiefbrody] 19/3/2024 16:46

Let's get this bad boy back up to 27+ squid where it belongs.

[xxxxxy] 19/3/2024 10:06

Wholesale gas prices have surged higher as colder temperatures hit Europe and amid the ongoing risks to supply in the Middle East.Europe's benchmark contract has powered higher by 20pc over the last five days in its longest rally since September. The UK equivalent has risen about 16pc over the same period....Daily Telegraph

[craftyale] 19/3/2024 08:33

Slowly edging up, div arrives soon. :)

[xxxxxy] 19/3/2024 08:24

That said....Go Nuclear ...But EVs useless anyway .

[xxxxxy] 18/3/2024 18:41

Ditching oil and gas is a "fantasy" amid increasing demand, one of the world's most powerful oil and gas bosses has said.Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said the transition to net zero is "visibly failing" with oil demand set to rise for "some time to come"."The current discourse on energy transition ignores this reality," he told the CERAWeek conference in Texas."The world should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas."Rising demand from developing economies could feed oil demand growth through 2045, he said.This forecast for long-term demand growth is in line with forecasts from Opec and in contrast to the 2030 forecast for peak demand from the West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency.The two are far apart on both short-term and long-term demand forecasts, in part because of their contrasting views on the energy transition.Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from hydrocarbons through carbon capture and other technologies achieves better results than alternative energies, Nasser said.New energy sources and technologies should only be introduced when they are genuinely ready, and economically competitive, he added.Without government subsidies, electric vehicles are as much as 50pc more expensive than internal-combustion cars, he added. "They cannot be subsidised forever."...Daily Telegraph

[xxxxxy] 18/3/2024 16:57

4:11PMDemand for liquefied natural gas is rising, says Shell bossGlobal demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is picking up due to a recent fall in prices, Shell chief Wael Sawan said today at a conference in Houston.LNG shipping has seen little impact from attacks by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, he said.The LNG market will be well supplied in the second half of the decade, he added. The boss of rival TotalEnergies meanwhile warned of near-term tightness in the LNG market that would not abate until 2026....Daily Telegraph

[xxxxxy] 18/3/2024 13:03

10:14AMGas prices rise amid global production outagesEuropean natural gas prices have risen for a fourth day amid concerns about global energy supplies.The benchmark contract on the continent jumped as much as 7.7pc in its biggest intraday jump since January 3. Prices have rallied for the longest period since the end of January after plunging as much as 30pc since the start of the year.Outages at global gas liquefaction facilities - from Malaysia to the US - are sending jitters through the market. Colder-than-normal temperatures are also expected across parts of northern Europe next week before heading higher.Dutch front-month futures, Europe's gas benchmark, were last up 5.1pc to more than €28 per megawatt-hour. The UK equivalent contract was up 5.3pc to more than 71p per therm...Daily Telegraph

[geckotheglorious] 18/3/2024 09:35

jrphoenixw2
Post 4566
A conservative voter not voting Conservative and happy to see this unknowable/LibDem imposter destroyed, in order to one day be reincarnated in a more honest way is doing the conservative cause good. My 2C.

Spot on.
Conservative party has relied too long on real Conversative voters holding their noses and still voting for the faux Conservative party solely over fear of what the other lot will do.

The time has come to destroy this fake Conservative party. Latest machinations being yet another proposed leadership change being mooted with Penny Morduant (a bigger WEF stooge and best mates with Bill Gates) being the proposed successor.

I wont vote Tory with her in charge - she is a Libdem posing as a Conservative.

We've only managed to get some Conservative policies(and partial Brexit) because a large chunk of Conservative voting block shifted to UKIP/Brexit party. Without that the Conservatives wouldnt have had a referendum,and wouldnt have partially implemented the vote

[jrphoenixw2] 15/3/2024 22:52

Don’t sweat windfall taxes – energy stocks will soon soar
All signs point to oil prices rising – and that will pump up share values
Ken Fisher
15 March 2024

Ken Fisher founded Fisher Investments and built a fortune estimated at $6.3bn. He writes a monthly column for Telegraph Money

Don’t let the FTSE 100’s flat start to the year blind you. This beautiful, global bull market is strong, an early advance on the good-to-great 2024 I foresee. But then, there is energy.

The sector’s lack of energy partly explains UK stocks’ tepid start, while the bears claim Britain’s extended “windfall tax” on gas and oil portends worse ahead. Wrong! The energy sector should shift from laggard to leader later this year – shocking almost everyone. Here’s why.

After energy outperformed in 2022, riding the crest of spiked oil prices as Putin invaded Ukraine, most envisaged ongoing global supply shortages, stoked by OPEC+ supply constraints, falling UK production and a reaccelerating, post-Covid China. These, supposedly, would send oil prices spiking again – powering up energy companies.

So, few people expected energy stocks’ weakness in 2023. Globally, they fell 3.3pc while world stocks soared 16.8pc. Yes, UK Energy’s 10.8pc rise beat the overall 7.7pc increase made by British shares, but that was globally an outlier, partly due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) arbitrage profits. Globally, energy investors got trounced in 2023.

By early 2023, oil prices had quietly fallen fully a third from March 2022’s high. Global production obliterated shortage fears and seemed set to keep expanding in Norway, Guyana and North America.

President Biden’s temporary ban on new federal land leases didn’t bite – US output actually topped record highs. Hence, high and rising production globally constrained oil prices to between $70 and $95 per barrel, stymieing global energy firms, whose profits chiefly rise and fall with crude prices.

Now everyone, again wrongly, extrapolates this lag throughout 2024. Fund flows, money manager surveys and valuations all show that investors have slashed exposure to the energy sector. This sour sentiment shift goes against the fundamentals. Oil prices should rise later this year, refuelling energy firm profits – and pumping share prices.

Why? It isn’t OPEC+ production cuts.

Energy stocks and oil prices baked those in long ago. They are mere symbolism now – not real-world limits. Ditto for Mr Biden’s pausing of new LNG export terminal permits, which won’t stop already permitted and under-construction terminals from easily supplying the planet. North American LNG export capacity should double later this decade.

Nor is it the gradual decline in UK and North Sea output, this is old, widely known news.

No, this is about simple incentives and normal market behaviour.

When energy companies saw higher prices, they boosted production to capitalise. Now US producers are completing wells far faster than drilling new ones, running down America’s “fracklog” of drilled-but-uncompleted wells.

Down 17.9pc year on year, the dwindling fracklog means less inventory can come online quickly. The low-hanging fruit are picked.

But producers aren’t replacing them. Dissuaded by mostly low-end prices and higher borrowing costs, oil producers got lean. Now, after years of consolidation, global mega-drillers dominate the market. With their more judicious production targets reigning, US rig counts fell from 621 at the end of 2022 to the current 506. US drilled wells fell, down 18.6pc year on year through January.

Production typically lags drilled wells by about six months, so soon overall production will slow significantly.

Meanwhile, many people vastly underestimate demand, while at the same time overemphasising areas of minor economic weakness like Germany and the UK. Yet better-than-expected growth in Britain and Europe, solid growth in America and stable demand in China will result in stronger-than-forecast oil demand.

For that reason, oil prices will climb.

Not sky-high, but challenging the upper end of 2023’s range – boosting energy sector earnings and the FTSE. It is the oil price, not production volume, that drives profits and oil stocks and determines when and whether companies will recoup high drilling and exploration costs. Higher oil prices, married with cost-consciousness, should create an earnings bonanza.

This should help big global oil companies, Britain’s energy stocks and the FTSE, as they benefit from strong balance sheets, low-cost production and integrated business models. They are best positioned to capitalise when oil prices rise but don’t skyrocket.

Don’t sweat Jeremy Hunt’s new Budget, which extends oil and gas “windfall” taxes. These taxes won’t tank Britain’s energy stocks.

These taxes impact domestic production and revenue only. Given just 13.8pc of UK energy company revenue is actually from Britain, windfall tax worries are mostly hot air.

You may ask: “But won’t pricey oil mean high petrol prices – and reignite inflation?” Perhaps incrementally. But they are just one small factor among many, likely offset by the fall in the energy price cap.

So, enjoy this global bull market. And watch UK stocks thrive later in 2024, as they “energise”.

[xxxxxy] 15/3/2024 17:31

Si BrownPetition to repeal the Climate Change Act and Net Zero targets:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/657353Please sign, only 2,151 signatures so far...At 100,000 signatures, this petition will be considered for debate in Parliament...Daily Telegraph

[jrphoenixw2] 14/3/2024 21:40

A conservative voter not voting Conservative and happy to see this unknowable/LibDem imposter destroyed, in order to one day be reincarnated in a more honest way is doing the conservative cause good. My 2C.

Same as many previously diverted from Con to vote Brexit Party etc, simply in order to (TRY) and get the Conservatives to follow through on their own manifesto.

It doesn't matter what the PM/govt wish, it's all in the hands of the rabble of collective MPs below who hold power.

[adg] 14/3/2024 16:13

I think it’d be surprising to actually know how many are teetering on the vote reform precipice
Virtually everybody I know are at that juncture - if only they could be convinced it’d not be a wasted vote
Nige needs to return to Reform - that’d put the cat amongst the pigeons

[chiefbrody] 14/3/2024 14:39

Amen. Sadly it's only a few, when it should be millions (tens of).

[chiefbrody] 14/3/2024 11:04

If they're ever levelled up against their peers.

[adg] 14/3/2024 09:59

I’d give him more - Ben van beuren was a muppet who had lost his mind to the mentalistic greenies, Wael has done a great job since taking the helm and continues to outperform imvho
The effect of the relentless BBs are gonna hit hard and fast one day when Shell and BP are levelled up against their peers

[xxxxxy] 14/3/2024 09:22

Energy giant Shell has watered down one of its climate ambitions as it revealed its boss earned £8m last year.The oil giant said that it now wants to reduce the "net carbon intensity" of the energy products it sells by 15pc to 20pc by 2030, compared to its previous 20pc target. The target is measured against 2016.The business said the change was caused by plans to focus more on selling electricity to business customers, rather than households, which means that its electricity sales will not rise as rapidly as previously thought by 2030.This will slow the rate at which the carbon intensity can be cut.It came as chief executive Wael Sawan was handed a total pay packet - which is tied to the company's share performance - worth nearly £8m last year....Daily Telegraph

[xxxxxy] 14/3/2024 08:14

Really could happen .Enough is enough .

[xxxxxy] 14/3/2024 08:14

7:24AMShell boss paid £8mThe boss of Shell was paid nearly £8m last year, new figures from the oil giant showed.Wael Sawan was handed a total pay packet worth £7.94m during the period, Shell said, a reduction from the £9.7m that his predecessor Ben van Beurden earned in 2022, although higher than Mr van Beurden's pay package for 2021.Mr Sawan's package included a base salary of £1.4m, an annual bonus of £2.7m and a £2.6m long-....Daily Telegraph....not wishing to quibble ...but seems rather a lot.

[chiefbrody] 13/3/2024 23:24

Raise the div. If Labor dare go any further than the awful Tories re lunatics taxes, Shell can (and should) just up sticks and leave.

[craftyale] 13/3/2024 21:25

That made me chuckle

[jrphoenixw2] 13/3/2024 19:18

Oil + Gas is a sitting duck for the imminent Labour government. Why antagonise them even more with a 'big flashing green div yield%'?

[veryniceperson] 13/3/2024 18:45

https://www.cnbc.com/energy/

[the white house] 13/3/2024 18:43

Yup divvi much better at BAT (down 6 quid in a year) than here (up 1 pound in last year)Clever guy : thanks for sharing