Shanta Gold Share Discussion Threads

[lowtrawler] 19/3/2024 11:32

Clearly, Sand Grove and Samson are not here for the long-term and Sustainable Capital indicate they no longer wish to support long-term development of the business. Against that background, it is difficult to see how the share price would do anything other than fall if the bid fails.

We have a difficult decision to make. We believe in the long-term future of Shanta and their opportunity to grow shareholder value but 3 of the largest shareholders do not. If we back our view, we will likely face a paper loss that could persist for a long time if Sustainable and the hedgies decide to exit. The absence of support from large shareholders could also impact our ability to develop WK with any pace. We will need a new BOD which is always fraught with difficulty, particularly on AIM. For all these reasons, voting no and digging in is effectively a commitment to remaining invested several years from now and a gamble that the new BOD can get us there.

[lowtrawler] 19/3/2024 11:14

NAV_Mike, if Samson or the other supporting parties hoover up the sells over the remainder of this month, the bid could go through. At the moment, without those purchases, I don't believe they have enough votes.

[nav_mike] 19/3/2024 10:54

Current quote with AJ Bells is 14.55 v 14.588 so looks like a fair number of PIs are taking the money and running this morning

Agree with LT thought, its certainly not a forgone conclusion they will get the 75% neeed

[kennyp52] 19/3/2024 09:50

colliera .. indicative of the incompetence of Shanta but they would have known the original vote was void by then

[colliera] 19/3/2024 09:42

kennyp52 we were asked to vote again before this morning's announcement

[kennyp52] 19/3/2024 09:21

15p but only if it goes through .. still no other bidders . Full and final .. you are now voting on a different offer so of course you need to vote again .. why are so many surprised by that ? 🤷‍a94;️

[lowtrawler] 19/3/2024 09:19

MF, a lot of the short term holders will have bought around 13p and see 14.6p as close enough to the 15p total bid for an exit. Longer term holders need to decide whether to shoulder a short term loss (if the bid fails and the share price sharply falls) in order to pursue the longer term gains undoubtedly there.

At the end of the day, we can't afford to become emotionally involved in the decision. Interestingly, with the previous postponed meeting, it was still possible to sell your shares after the cut-off date for voting and so have your say as well as hedging your bets by selling the shares. I don't know whether the same thing will happen this time around but worth considering.

[michaelfenton] 19/3/2024 09:08

Yes it is theft but remember we must try to stop it. Some are already selling?

[hiddendepths] 19/3/2024 09:05

It's still theft

[lowtrawler] 19/3/2024 08:56

hpcg, the Patel's cannot buy in the market as they cannot vote their own shares towards the 75%. They would need Samson or one of the supportive holders to make the purchase.

[energiser01] 19/3/2024 08:50

It’s a NO from me

[hpcg] 19/3/2024 08:50

I traded some spread bets on an increased offer, and closed now, but the offer is still derisory. I don't know why any shareholder would accept. They also clearly know from the announcement that PIs vastly outnumber institutions and getting this over the line by vote if going to be very difficult.

IMO the wannabe purchasers are going to have to buy in the market. Navigating that for PIs will require a bit of game theory, not selling shares too soon, but not hanging on once they have control.

Ideally the entire board would be replaced now, though at least the independents put up a bit of a fight. For a PI heavy shareholder base that will be difficult to bring about as replacements will be needed.

Good luck to all holders!

[source] 19/3/2024 08:40

Cheeky ba*tards still trying to steal it??. VOTE NO AGAIN ??

[lowtrawler] 19/3/2024 08:30

If you accept the bid is unlikely to succeed, you need to assess what you think may then happen to the share price

My position remains there will be a sharp reduction in the share price as many of the newer shareholders exit and the need for a new BoD's.

In the opposing camp, you will be able to argue the higher pog has added value to Shanta and the bid has increased our profile with many now better understanding our underlying value. IMV, these will help to drive a higher share price in the medium to long-term but not support us in the immediate aftermath of a failed bid.

It remains possible there will be a competing bid but it is increasingly a long-shot.

[redhill] 19/3/2024 08:21

Pathetic offer still.Offer low to start then raise slightly. I'm still voting No.

[robsy2] 19/3/2024 08:07

The company didn’t need to be taken over. The problem now is if we stay independent, we need a new BOD

[stevea171] 19/3/2024 07:58

15p is what I have always said. No counter offers so far so not likely imo.

No offer raised to 18p, 20p, 22p etc as some have been trying to convince us is coming ....

[lowtrawler] 19/3/2024 07:57

noobiedoobie, every takeover is different and you need to look at where the Patel's might get their votes from. They need over 45 out of 70 of the remaining votes, although you can probably guess around 20% of shares will fail to be voted making the challenge over 30 out of 50.I believe PIs still hold around 20% of Shanta and probably will deliver 15% of the 20% required to block. I don't believe the Patel's can win if that happens. I also don't believe they will move to a conventional takeover in the event of winning over 50%. If I'm correct, the bid will fail and disappear early April.

[michaelfenton] 19/3/2024 07:53

Increase of offer still poxy? I am still voting NO - os there a white knight out there.

[robsy2] 19/3/2024 07:46

I'll vote my shares against this.

[noobiedoobie] 19/3/2024 07:43

Quick Google search says most companies accept takeover of 4 to 6 times EBITDA

Do the maths

[phillis] 19/3/2024 07:39

Well done to those that hung on in expectation of a higher offer?
But is it high enough?