Shanta Gold Share Discussion Threads

[kennyp52] 18/11/2020 09:01

POG circa $1900 . SHG stuck at 15.25p . My frustration is what if we lose all of this bonus by under performing on production and still settling the hedge up to January then risk on comes back and POG starts falling . That happens then where does this share price go ?? If it cannot rise at this POG then I am struggling to see all the optimism . Fingers crossed 🤞🏻

[swanvesta] 18/11/2020 00:20

Yes, could be stagflation in the west. But they're going to have a damn good go at the green revolution. That's why it's being cast as a war, to ward off an existential threat. That'll be the source of demand - infrastructure and other "essentials" for a green economy, rather than just conspicuous consumption. Meanwhile, the rest of the world has plenty of growing still to do, and as they come up to parity the west will import inflation rather than deflation. [That'll be mitigated somewhat by deglobalisation, which will reduce efficiency but will provide jobs. And it's another kind of 'war', against cheap foreign labour and polluting shipping/transport.]

[12string] 17/11/2020 22:18

Swanvesta, looking at past history, I'd have to agree with you. But I've a feeling we're in for a period of stagflation.

For over half a century we've seen virtually continuous year on year growth and over the last 25 years interest rates have progressively reduced to keep that growth going. I remember mortgage rate spike at 14%. Bank base rates today are near zero. They were near zero before the pandemic. The pandemic has made the economy worse, but when it's under control, the world's economy is still going to need free money to try to get demand going.

I see a 2020 decade of high unemployment and weak demand. Factories will need to adjust to that and no doubt there will be heavy investment in automation. But a factory running at less than capacity, making less stuff is going to struggle to make a profit. Globalisation supporting slick JIT supply chains with cheap Eastern labour got us to a very high state of efficiency. It's going to be difficult to restore the system let alone reduce unit costs further.

No, my bet is that helicopter money and monetising debt is going to have to ramp up but it will ultimately fail to stimulate sufficient demand. At the same time, the debt mountain will accelerate and force interest rates to remain very low.

The US Fed is already targeting more than 2% inflation, and you can bet that they will always politically understate inflation. Inflation is the only way that debt can remain sustainable.

So for me, and we can see prices rising already, we're going to see price inflation but demand deflation.

[swanvesta] 17/11/2020 20:49

Juju, AIUI inflation can't happen while the economy is relatively depressed. The money printing is just keeping things going. People need to have the money and want to spend it (increased demand), or else (the opposite) there has to be a supply crunch, before inflation can kick in. At some point, perhaps after we come out of covid and govs/CBs kickstart a big green infrastructure boom, or when China decides its economy doesn't depend on western consumption any more, and/or the dollar collapses, that's when we'll see inflation.

[12string] 17/11/2020 18:54

This article purports to answer why gold and silver have not already gone to the moon. After all, the amount of bullion needed to back the cash pouring into precious metals ETF's this year is relatively huge. So why hasn't there been a precious metals supply shortage????

Read on ...

hxxps://silverseek.com/article/return-precious-metals-leasing

... and realise that Shanta's past loan involved "hedging" 50% of their production at the gold price prevailing at the time - $1240/oz. Shanta's accounts show that the hedging was actually short selling. Every 6 months, Shanta entered into short contracts that were bound to lose shedloads of cash. This agreement was disguised as insurance against the price of gold falling, but thee banks behind it had a different purpose. Short selling puts downward pressure on gold and silver prices, and crucially enables the likes of JPMorgan to release physical gold and silver to the institutions that run the precious metals ETF's.

We should be grateful that Shanta is now virtually clear of the loan and its short selling commitment. Also, it does appear that the lid on the practice is going to blow soon. Certainly, awareness is growing.

[juju44] 17/11/2020 18:20

Thats what everyone has been saying for the past couple of years but no sign of it

[12string] 17/11/2020 18:11

At 15.5p, Shanta is tremendously good value. Do the calcs and it's obvious.
Medium to long term, there's going to be inflation ... Biden is talking $7 trillion on infrastructure and the Fed want inflation >2% at the same time as holding interest on govt bonds near to zero. The only safe havens left are precious metals.

Short term, the money is pouring into the broader equity market, that's where the growth is today, pumped up by short term trading. We are led to believe that inflation is nowhere in sight. That is going to change and IMO it won't be very long before everyone realises it.

Patience!!!

[338] 17/11/2020 13:30

Kenny,

I am optimistic on SHG and Bitcoin... You keep moaning when share price going down... for me share price up or down movement is normal... I will get my price target at the end optimistically... 🚀

[kennyp52] 17/11/2020 11:39

chestnuts ... one thing we both agree on .... it is hugely undervalued on resources and fundamentals . POG high ; AISC nicely under control . This is my frustration - we are not getting our return in terms of share price . Maybe they need to get the message out there clearer and stronger but you are right ... inactivity on the share price is leaving this as a sitting duck . SRB are in a similar boat . POG remaining consistently high ... some gold miners shares remaining stagnant and even in reverse .

[its top up time] 17/11/2020 11:37

So this can mean only one thing..

[kennyp52] 17/11/2020 11:24

Pardon ? Sorry I got it wrong more like . Even Astra Zeneca "at cost" will included their overheads and likely normal profit margin . But £3 a shot is substantially different from $19.50 for a product that costs a fortune to transport and keep in liquid nitrogen ! Pfizer's product is rapidly becoming the lesser of the options - no wonder they announced is as quickly as they could .

[chestnuts] 17/11/2020 11:08

Pardon Kenny


Oxford/AstraZeneca are the ones working at cost - £3 a shot apparently.

[c9ajl] 17/11/2020 11:06

Shanta Presentation by Erichttps://youtu.be/Ky6UpVvbBvY

[swanvesta] 17/11/2020 10:50

Apparently Moderna and Pfizer will be selling their vaccines at a profit, and Moderna's will be even more expensive than Pfizer's $19.50. Oxford/AstraZeneca are the ones working at cost - £3 a shot apparently.

[kennyp52] 17/11/2020 09:11

At cost .. that really shows your naivety chestnuts .

338 - sorry to disappoint but if you follow my posts you will know I took out most of my CEY months ago ... still got a very badly performing lump you will be pleased to know ... but I put it into here ; SLP ; GRL and got a huge holding in JLP with a 3.84p average . CEY will recover . The question is will SHG ever go anywhere? You must be under water here the way you respond to anything which is not a ramp ?

[swanvesta] 16/11/2020 20:39

Hmm ok. US Gov paid Pfizer (or are contracted to pay) $1.95bn for 100m doses. That's $19.50 a shot, and they're looking to manufacture a billion or two. Seems high BWDIK.

[chestnuts] 16/11/2020 19:30

swan

Pfizer were doing the vaccine at cost so i am lead to believe, i am sure i have read this somwhere

[swanvesta] 16/11/2020 19:00

"If Pfizer vaccine was the only one to be successful, they would have passed the formula to other producers to manufacture and the capacity could have been increased"

I don't think that's how capitalism works.

[juju44] 16/11/2020 18:15

Trump would have walked the election if it had not been for Covid and if he had not shot himself in the foot telling his followers to ignore postal votes .
Biden will last 6 months and then socialist Kamala will oversee the end game for US power and wealth

[chestnuts] 16/11/2020 17:25

I will also add for Boris to raise taxes at this point is totally the wrong way to do things, taxes shouldnt be raised until inflation is rising and the debt is going down.

[chestnuts] 16/11/2020 17:23

Jc2706

38497 very funny.

I showed my misses and she cant wait to give me some.

Todays action on gold is bullish and giving every one a vaccine wont cure the debt.

[chestnuts] 16/11/2020 16:32

If Pfizer vaccine was the only one to be successful, they would have passed the formula to other producers to manufacture and the capacity could have been increased

[jc2706] 16/11/2020 16:27

Agreed. The distribution of these vaccines is going to be a major logistical effort. But I suppose that world domination through vaccine implanted control chips is a goal worth striving for. :-)

[swanvesta] 16/11/2020 15:53

Actually one vaccine is not enough. They need several billion doses, much more than any one manufacturer can supply in the timescale demanded.