Shaft Sink Share Discussion Threads

[muckshifter] 17/7/2013 11:11

Mega trader,
In what way would it benefit Eurochem to settle?
Regards.

[muckshifter] 17/7/2013 11:09

buywell,
that was roughly the figure - $350, iirc, for this new mine I looked at.

Hectorp,
Don't forget in terms of Hidustani Zinc job that there was a claim against shft by the subbie of approx £1m (iirc, I assumed it was on the Indian job), which was being dealt with on a "pay when paid" basis by shft - in other words they put the claim on to the client and pay the subbie if / when it succeeds. That situation may well change if the subbie is a strong one.
Regards.

[mega_trader] 17/7/2013 11:04

Always thought gold mining required more subtle methods than open cast, thus requiring the conventional method.

This chart might explain why eruochem are being uncooprative after the potash price drop.
potash price chart.

www.infomine.com/ChartsAndData/GraphEngine.ashx?z=f&gf=110545.RUB.t&dr=5y

To be honest the more eurochem aggitate the case with speculation the longer it takes to come to a settlement. But it does look like prices are picking up so I would expect it is in both parties intrest to settle. In the end you have to sit down and talk.

[buywell2] 17/7/2013 09:06

I know of one open cast gold miner that produce at $300

[muckshifter] 17/7/2013 08:54

RCTurner2,
I would think Hedgehog is on holiday and will be back to tell everyone that it was a misunderstood positive update, and the best buying opportunity ever - on Sunday / Monday. HH is a zealot, completely unable to accept that he is ever wrong, and completely unable to see negatives or uncertainties.
Regards.

[rcturner2] 16/7/2013 18:59

Still not a peep from either hedgehog or coco the clown.

[muckshifter] 16/7/2013 15:19

Hectorp,
Last year someone was talking to me about the surface muckshift for a new opencast gold mine, and I'm fairly sure from memory that the mining company's expectation was to mine gold for considerably less than $500/ounce.
Regards.

[buywell2] 16/7/2013 13:30

SHFT couldn't pay anything anyway

They are strapped for cash themselves

They have dug themselves into a deep hole

Between a rock and a hard place called SA

[technofiend] 16/7/2013 13:17

"Finally, the "confidence" regarding the Eurochem dispute seems to be waning."

This is why I have continued holding, in spite of the share price falling.

However if it is resolved tomorrow in SHFT's favour, how much is going to add to the SP? We may get back to low 20's.

That's probably it.

[buywell2] 16/7/2013 11:20

No bounce after the drop

Bodes not too well methinks

Some of these brokers are making themselves look a tad silly .... they clearly know nowt about charts TA and how to use both

[muckshifter] 16/7/2013 11:16

Thanks RCT, I won't bother reading them then.
Regards.

[hectorp] 16/7/2013 11:16

Hello Muckshifter, enjoy your informative posts: an interesting overview of deep v open cast mining situation at present. Most deep mining must be scaled back in the PM sphere as PM's are hardly worth taking out of the ground .

However we could go back to 2002 and the cost of mining gold then was around $250-300 an ounce which was of course the then price of gold - as it is now, $1200 to mine, and a $1200 gold price. Something suggests gold has found it's floor for that reason alone. Inflation has simply caught up with the gold price, and the old $300 is the new $1200. I made my metal purchases at $700 in 2008-9 and silver from $10 an ounce, I don't regret a moment of it.
However the next year is still going to be difficult for miners and for those such as shft who drill the deep shafts.

Yes sir, your views back then did help me decide to move out of SHFT at around the 40-45p mark for a 30% loss. I had been short the previous year as records show on the thread when I shorted from over a pound so over two years I am about even.
But not inclined to come back in . It is regrettable that many were buying at high prices eg 70p and may still be holding.
Edited: perhaps the Indian contract may yet yield more than the present market cap alone. I see they are taking more control over the feed-in to it.
RCT better off in Layshon.. we do choose 'em. !

[rcturner2] 16/7/2013 10:28

If it gets to 10p I will probably put in £500 as an option trade.

[mega_trader] 16/7/2013 10:15

Note from Westhouse Securities calling the price fall an over-reaction.

"Net debt has improved, declining to £0.2m at the end of H1 vs. £2.1m at the end of FY2012 and management expects to agree a refinancing of existing facilities shortly," Westhouse's Kevin Fogarty said.

"The trading update implies that financial performance for this year will be second half weighted. Ahead of the release of interim results on 30th August the valuation (FY2013 P/E 2.7x, EV/EBITDA 0.6x) is pricing in a more negative scenario than that implied by today's trading update in our view. With no changes to forecasts we retain our 52p target price and Buy recommendation," the broker said.

[noirua] 15/7/2013 20:41

South Africa Rand vs US Dollar



GB£ versus ZAR

US$ versus ZAR

[hectorp] 15/7/2013 17:41

Trading at about the value of cash, £6-7M. Only February they stated turnover of around £130M for this year, of course today's tatement is a serious profit warning.
Amplats not a gold miner.. but agree SA is not a place to be, Platinum and Paladium are not very profitable for miners either.

What to do.. hmm . Nothing for a while.
H.

[rcturner2] 15/7/2013 16:57

Just been reading cocomac's previous posts on this thread. You have to laugh.

[mega_trader] 15/7/2013 15:15

The spreads closed up.

South Africa Gold Companies Offer 4% Wage Increase
www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/07/15/south-africa-gold-companies-offer-4pct-wage-increase-solidarity/12409811

[buywell2] 15/7/2013 15:09

True

And lifts in the share price like this am will be from short sellers covering

[lennonsalive] 15/7/2013 15:07

You can't use charts, SHFT is very much in trouble. Debt, strikes and lack of good contracts. Mcap now under 10m, will drop off most peoples radar.

[rcturner2] 15/7/2013 14:46

"The world's leading gold miner, Barrick Gold, believes that the entire industry's all-in sustaining costs of production are now $1,200 an ounce, up from $300 in 2002. With the gold price at $1,280 today, the gold industry as a whole is only marginally profitable and close to haemorrhaging cash.

The gold industry will respond to this crisis by cutting higher-cost production (mining only higher-grade ore) and mothballing capacity. As mines are closed, orders for mining equipment will dry up and second-hand equipment, such as excavators, trucks, grinders and drills, will be dumped on the market. This will have calamitous ramifications for those companies reliant on gold miners' investment plans."

[buywell2] 15/7/2013 14:03

Contracts can be re-negotiated by cash strapped mining companies

Else they never get taken up

Thus a forward order book is not worth paper it is written on sometimes