Severfield Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 01/7/2011 14:17

The Company has today been advised that on 30 June 2011, John Dodds, a non-executive Director of the Company, purchased 10,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 221p each. Following this notification his resultant holding is 10,000 ordinary shares which is below 0.1% of the Company's issued share capital.

John Dodds joined last year. Good construction experience. Profile:

[jadeticl] 27/6/2011 14:58

Unusual buying today. Anyone know why?

[waldron] 25/6/2011 06:13

Swiss Franc Climbs to Record High Versus Euro Amid Concern on Debt Crisis
By Allison Bennett and Catarina Saraiva - Jun 25, 2011 6:00 AM GMT+0200 .
inShare.0
More
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email ...The Swiss franc rose against all of its 16 most-traded peers, reaching a record against the euro, as investors sought safety on concern an austerity plan to stabilize Greece won't resolve Europe's sovereign-debt crisis.

The dollar gained for a third week against the euro, the longest since February, on speculation Greece's parliament may reject Prime Minister George Papandreou's plan to cut the budget deficit, win more aid and avoid default. The pound slid for a fourth week against the dollar after U.K. policy makers discussed more monetary stimulus. Growth in U.S. manufacturing cooled in June, a report next week may show.

"All these headlines continue to add to uncertainty and nervousness amongst investors and continue to create the choppy price action that we've been seeing," said Paresh Upadhyaya, head of Americas G-10 currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. "Just as you feel you're on top of the Greek situation, you get thrown a curve ball."

The franc touched 1.1806 versus the euro yesterday, the strongest level since the shared currency's 1999 debut. It gained 2.6 percent for the week to 1.1826 per euro, from 1.2142 on June 17. The franc gained 1.8 percent to 83.31 centimes per dollar, from 84.82 centimes a week earlier.

The greenback appreciated 0.8 percent to $1.4188 against the euro, from $1.4306. The U.S. currency rose 0.5 percent against the yen to 80.43, from 80.05, gaining for the first time in five weeks. The euro fell 0.3 percent to 114.13 yen in its third week of losses, the longest losing streak since January.

No New Purchases
IntercontinentalExchange Inc.'s Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, rose for a third week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke dashed expectations policy makers would expand stimulus measures. That eased concern Fed policies would further debase the currency. The index rose 0.8 percent to 75.583.

The central bank said June 22 after a two-day meeting it will maintain monetary stimulus to support a flagging economic recovery while letting a $600 billion bond-purchase program end on schedule this month. Bernanke told reporters policy makers are in a "different position" now than last August, when deflation posed a "nontrivial risk" and he first hinted the Fed might undertake the debt buys.

Sterling fell for a fourth week against the greenback, the longest since September, as minutes of the latest Bank of England meeting showed some policy makers saw a risk that more bond purchases may be required.

The pound weakened 1.5 percent to $1.5959, from $1.6194 on June 17. It touched $1.5939 on June 23, a three-month low.

Austerity Vote
Greece's Papandreou may struggle to pass austerity measures even after winning a confidence vote by 155-143 on June 22, which sent the euro to a one-week high against the dollar. The prime minister will seek parliament's approval next week for a 78 billion-euro ($111 billion) package of budget cuts and asset sales, a condition for more aid the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

"Anything that starts with a "G" I'll be paying attention to," said Carl Forcheski, a director on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York.

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said he'll speak to dissenters from the ruling Pasok party in a bid to persuade them to back the austerity measures in a vote that's due by June 30.

Thomas Robopoulos, a lawmaker from the party, said he hadn't decided whether he'll vote for the plan. He said yesterday by telephone he was leaning toward voting against it.

"The majority that they had for the confidence on Tuesday of 155 seems to be dwindling away," said Mark McCormick, a New York-based currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

Italian Banks
The euro fell 1.5 percent over the past three months, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, which track the currencies of 10 developed nations. The Swiss franc was the best performer, gaining 8.4 percent.

The 17-nation currency fell against most major counterparts yesterday as Italy's two largest banks, UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, led a drop in bank stocks in Milan. Trading in both firms' shares was briefly suspended after breaching limits on intraday swings.

Moody's Investors Service said June 23 it may downgrade 13 Italian banks because they would be vulnerable to a cut in the government's credit rating. The firm said last week Italy's ratings may be cut because of slowing economic growth and the potential for Europe's debt crisis to drive up borrowing costs.

"Adding to unexpected risk to the euro, the market now has to concentrate on risks to Spain and Italy, which were long considered safe in this go-around," said Bank of America's Upadhyaya.

Canadian Dollar
Canada's dollar dropped against the greenback as crude oil, the nation's biggest export, fell. The International Energy Agency said its members will release 60 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles to alleviate possible shortages following the loss of Libyan crude.

The Canadian currency depreciated 0.9 percent to 98.86 cents per U.S. dollar, from 97.94 cents a week earlier. It touched 98.87, yesterday, within one cent of the weakest since March 17. Crude fell 2.3 percent to $91.16 a barrel in New York, dropping below $90 on June 23 for the first time since February.

The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index slipped to 51.8 in June from 53.5 in May, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the data is released on July 1. Readings above 50 signal growth.

To contact the reporters on this story: Allison Bennett in New York at [e-mail]; Catarina Saraiva in New York at [e-mail]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at [e-mail]
.

[ariane] 20/6/2011 20:11

Jun 16, 2011 - 21:16Interest rates held despite lingering risks

Image Caption: The Swiss National Bank warned that big banks could be caught out by a ripple effect of a country defaulting on its debt (Keystone)Related Stories
Strong franc threatens homespun manufacturing
SNB head says Swiss franc pressures should ease
Swiss franc a magnet in times of strife
by Matthew Allen, swissinfo.ch


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has again opted to keep interest rates at historic lows despite economic uncertainties and the franc gaining in strength.
The SNB also expressed reservations about the exposure of the big banks to creaky overseas credit, the quality of their risk absorbing capital, and the level of mortgage lending in the domestic market.



Switzerland's central bank warned on Thursday that many financial institutions have not taken adequate steps to protect themselves against future economic shocks. The SNB recognised that banks had taken initial steps to improve their defences, but urged them to do more.

A deterioration in the already volatile sovereign debt crisis in Europe could catch out UBS and Credit Suisse which are overexposed to unstable credit while having insufficient means to cover potential losses, states an SNB report.



Protect exporters
While UBS and Credit Suisse are not directly exposed to much credit from troubled economies such as Greece, SNB vice-chairman Thomas Jordan warned that these banks could be caught out by a ripple effect of a country defaulting on its debt.

"Should the debt problems in the already vulnerable international banking system or in other sovereigns become amplified, however, these banks could face considerable losses," he said.

The warning comes days after the Senate passed a series of measures to force banks to improve their defences against future financial crises.

Despite these lingering concerns, the SNB opted once again to keep the three month interbank Libor range at 0.0-0.75 per cent with a target rate of 0.25 per cent.

The main reasoning behind the decision was to protect Swiss exporters from the ravages of the franc, that recently strengthened to record highs of SFr1.20 against the euro and SFr0.84 versus the dollar.

Embattled SNB chairman Philipp Hildebrand revealed the delicate balancing act the central bank has to observe when setting rates.



Housing bubble?
"The main risks remain, on the one hand, the effects of the strong Swiss franc on the export industry and, on the other, the danger of overheating in the real estate sector," he said.

House prices in some areas of Switzerland, such as Geneva and Zurich, have risen dramatically in recent months, with some experts fearing that localised bubbles are being formed.

Low interest rates have helped fuel rising house prices by encouraging more people to take out mortgage loans. The value of mortgage loans increased 4.6 per cent last year to SFr758 billion ($893 billion).

"Should real estate prices continue to rise at the current pace and move away from the level justified by fundamentals, a significant price correction is more likely in the medium term," said Jordan.

"Such a price correction, together with a significant rise in mortgage loan defaults, would pose a threat to financial stability."



Inflationary pressures
Observers fear that too many banks are lowering lending standards to gain a slice of the buoyant mortgage market in the face of fierce competition. The hands of the finance regulators, however, are tied by the lack of detailed data on such loans.

"Given this uncertainty and signs of potentially adverse developments in the real estate and mortgage markets, there is a need for action in many respects," said Jordan.

The SNB vice-chairman suggested a revision of the rules of self-regulation in the mortgage lending arena that could compel banks to set aside greater reserves to cover potential losses in the event of defaults.

In opting to keep interest rates on hold, the SNB also took into account the risk of inflation spiraling out of control. But it concluded that the strong franc would continue to keep economic growth, and prices, in check.

The SNB maintained its forecast of two per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year. It also downgraded its inflation expectations to 0.9 per cent this year, one per cent in 2012 and 1.7 per cent in 2013.

Stronger inflationary pressures in other parts of the world have led to recent interest rate hikes.

The European Central Bank raised its by a quarter of a per cent to 1.25 per cent in April – the first increase since 2008.



Matthew Allen, swissinfo.ch

[grupo guitarlumber] 16/6/2011 19:17

Swiss National Bank Holds Rates at Historic Lows
Published: Thursday, 16 Jun 2011 | 12:01 PM ET Text Size By: Reported by Carolin Schober, Written by Peter Guest

Twitter LinkedInMore Share
Market volatility and uncertainty in the euro zone are limiting the options for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which held rates at the historic low of 0.25 percent Thursday, Chairman Philipp Hildebrand told CNBC.


Cosmo Condina | The Image Bank | Getty Images
Switzerland
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"At the moment one of the great sources of uncertainty clearly is the debt crisis in Europe. That's certainly the main factor that adds a new element of uncertainty. But we also have the so-called 'soft patch' in the US and we have generally an outlook internationally that's been adjusted slightly to the downside, so there are a number of other uncertainties, but clearly, the main uncertainty currently is the discussion around the European debt crisis," he said on Thursday.

Many strategists have pushed the Swiss franc [EURCHF=X 1.2017 -0.0075 (-0.62%) ] as a safe haven currency, and its unusual strength is a concern, Hildebrand said. The euro fell to a historic low against the franc Thursday amid market worries about the situation in Greece.

"Market prices are market prices," he said. "What is true is that we cannot actively participate in seeking a solution for the European debt crisis, and that is a big difference to the crisis in 2008 where we could tackle our own problems. Here in many ways we are dependent on our European partners and colleagues finding their way to stabilize markets and to resolve the problems surrounding Greece and the periphery of Europe."

Hildebrand said that he was confident that European policymakers would find a solution, despite the apparent stalemate in Greece that has led to Prime Minister George Papandreou reshuffling his cabinet and offering to step down.

"The night is always darkest just before dawn," Hildebrand said. "We remain confident that, all the difficulties notwithstanding, Europe will find a way out of this. Clearly all alternatives to finding a solution strike me as worse and that's something we can be hopeful for. At this stage, for Switzerland, obviously the need for Europe to get back to stability is a crucial issue. We can do everything right, but unless Europe can stabilize we will continue to be impacted in every way."

He refused to be drawn on how the private sector should be included in the solution to Europe's debt restructuring.

"I don't think it's up to us to counsel Europe. They've got plenty of very intelligent people who are heavily engaged at the moment and trying to find a solution. The key is to try to reintroduce predictability, and to devise... maybe also game-changing solutions, that manage to change the market psychology," He said. "I think as you can see in virtually all market segments, the uncertainty around how they will proceed weighs heavily at the moment on confidence."

Future interventions in the Swiss franc will principally depend on the inflation outlook, Hildebrand said. The bank raised its inflation forecast slightly from 0.8 percent to 0.9 percent.

[grupo guitarlumber] 15/6/2011 07:32

Buy Euro, Sell Swiss Franc: Contrarian Analyst
Published: Tuesday, 14 Jun 2011 | 2:59 AM ET Text Size By: Patrick Allen
CNBC EMEA Head of News


Twitter LinkedInMore Share
With the Swiss Franc sitting at a record high against the euro one analyst told CNBC.com that it could be time to bet against the safe haven currency.


Medioimages | Photodisc | Getty Images
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"We could see a final push lower for the euro against the Swiss Franc but if the EU can outline a credible, structured road forward on the euro zone debt crisis the euro could trade at 1.40 versus the Franc by the end of the next year," Mark O'Sullivan, the Director of Dealing at Currencies Direct, said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday.

Now O'Sullivan admits the EU solving the debt crisis is a big "if" but maintains that a solution, and restructuring, is on the cards sooner rather than later.

"The only way out of this that does not involve crisis after crisis is a unified European bond market. At some point Germany will have to pay for a solution via higher borrowing costs. They cannot keep bailing out one country after another," said O'Sullivan.

Having failed to call the credit crisis the credit ratings agencies are finally telling people things they don't want to hear, in O'Sullivan's view.

"The politicians do not want to hear this but S&P's decision to rate Greece at CCC is evidence of them doing their job properly," he said.

O'Sullivan said for the EU to find a meaningful, structured road out of this crisis the ratings agencies, the IMF, ECB and European Council will have to agree on a strategy that will not please everyone. "The only way is a unified bond market."

But the German government would need to sell such a deal.

O'Sullivan also told CNBC.com that if stocks continue to fall, and lose 15 percent over the summer months, the clamor for a third round of money printing by the Federal Reserve, also known as QE3 (quantitative easing 3) will be huge.

"Given the limited impact of QE1 and QE2 on Main Street, it remains to be seen if even these losses would see the Fed push ahead with QE3," he said.

[grupo guitarlumber] 15/6/2011 07:11

Swiss Franc Record May Force SNB to Keep Rates on Hold For Another Quarter
By Klaus Wille - Jun 15, 2011 1:01 AM GMT+0200 .
inShare.3
More
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email ...The Swiss franc's surge to a new record may force central bank President Philipp Hildebrand to keep borrowing costs near zero for another quarter.

The currency has gained 3.3 percent over the past month, prompting economists at Bank of America/ Merrill Lynch, UBS AG (UBSN) and Julius Baer Group Ltd. (BAER) to push back their forecast for a rate increase to the September meeting. The Swiss National Bank will keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent tomorrow, according to all 26 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

SNB policy makers have been weighing the threat of the currency's ascent hurting exporters such as watchmaker Swatch Group AG (UHR) against the risks of near-zero rates fueling price pressures. While central banks from Frankfurt to Stockholm have started tightening monetary reins, Hildebrand has called the franc a "burden" and forecast economic growth to weaken.

"The recent franc gains must have come as a shock to the SNB," Alessandro Bee, an economist at Bank Sarasin who had previously projected the SNB to raise the benchmark at tomorrow's meeting. "It won't risk raising rates now."

The SNB, whose attempts to weaken the franc in the 15 months through June 2010 contributed to a $21 billion loss last year, will announce its decision at 9:30 a.m. in Bern, followed by a briefing 30 minutes later. It will also publish its latest inflation forecasts for this year and next.

Franc 'Burden'
Increasing investor concern that Greece may be forced to restructure its debt pushed the franc to a record 1.2004 versus the euro on June 13. Standard & Poor's on that day lowered its Greek rating and said there's a "significantly higher likelihood of one or more defaults" in the euro region.

The Swiss currency, perceived as a haven during times of turmoil, reached an all-time high of 83.27 centimes against the dollar on June 7. It traded at 84.32 centimes versus the dollar late yesterday and at 1.2200 against the euro.

The Swiss government on June 14 lowered its 2012 growth forecast, saying that any further franc gains would threaten economic expansion "to a serious degree."

"The currency appreciation, which already represented a burden on Swiss exports during the last few months," has worsened over the past weeks, the government in Bern said that day. "A significant downward correction of the franc is not expected in the short run."

Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, the Swiss maker of Baume & Mercier watches, on May 19 missed full-year profit estimates partly because of the franc. Swatch Chief Executive Officer Nick Hayek has called the currency's ascent "catastrophic."

'Verbal Intervention'
While the SNB last year abandoned attempts to weaken the franc by purchasing foreign currencies, Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin, said there's a possibility of "verbal intervention" if the franc breaches 1.20 versus the euro.

"An excessively strong franc has prevented the SNB from raising interest rates and threatens to hammer exports," he said. "But refraining from making a comment may in fact be the most effective way for the SNB to stem franc gains. The central bank may be best served by keeping markets guessing on whether it will actually enter the market."

The franc's ascent has helped shield the economy from imported price pressures. Swiss consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in May from a year ago, calculated using a harmonized European method. In the euro region, inflation was at 2.7 percent, breaching the European Central Bank's 2 percent limit for a sixth month.

Global Tightening
Surging commodity costs have prompted central banks from Sweden to Hungary, China and India to tighten their monetary policy to fight price risks. The ECB on June 9 signaled it's ready to raise its benchmark interest rate further next month.

"Due to past form, the SNB is widely seen following the ECB," Ankita Dudani, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said in an e-mailed note. "The same is not true now as the franc strength on safe haven flows is keeping inflation very low. So even those who believe in follow thy neighbor are unlikely to look for higher Swiss rates."

Interest-rate futures show that markets have postponed expectations for the first increase from December to March 2012. Swiss borrowing costs are the lowest among major global economies after the U.S. and Japan.

So far, the Swiss economy is showing few signs of slowdown. Manufacturing growth accelerated in May, leading economic indicators held at the highest in almost five years and unemployment dropped to 3 percent in May, when adjusted for seasonal swings. That's the lowest in more than two years.

Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) in Frankfurt, still expects SNB policy makers to raise borrowing costs at their September meeting, saying the current rate level is "too low for the Swiss economy."

"Given the economy's resilience, there are lots of reasons for the SNB to raise rates," said Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit Group in Munich. "But given the strong franc and the low inflation, there are even more reasons not to do it."

To contact the reporter on this story: Klaus Wille in Zurich at [e-mail]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at [e-mail]
.

[jonwig] 08/6/2011 07:10

AGM statement, nothing new here:



I won't be going, as I've a clashing engagement unfortunately.

[waldron] 31/5/2011 08:22

May 29, 2011 - 10:17 Strong franc threatens homespun manufacturing

Image Caption: The Swiss franc: worth more today than yesterday (Ex-press)Related Stories
SNB head says Swiss franc pressures should ease
EU urged to tackle euro slide
Firms warn worst franc effects "yet to come"
by Matthew Allen, swissinfo.ch


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Manufacturers are shifting a greater share of investments out of Switzerland with the dollar in the doldrums and the euro plunging to record lows against the franc.
Renewed fears that Greece might default on its debts has sparked a fresh wave of euro weakening while the dollar continues to trade way below parity against the franc. A single euro cost just under SFr1.22 on May 27 and the dollar just SFr0.85.



Swiss exporters are used to the safe haven franc gaining in strength in times of global economic uncertainty. But the speed of exchange rate fluctuations this time has hindered their efforts to dampen the effects of Swiss goods becoming more expensive in other countries.

Despite orders and sales increasing, margins are taking a hit, forcing many companies to not just source materials in the eurozone, but to also start buying more equipment outside Switzerland.

"If things do not improve we fear that whole production lines will be relocated abroad in the mid-term," Ivo Zimmermann, spokesman for the Swissmem umbrella group of the mechanical and electrical engineering sectors, told swissinfo.ch.

"If that were to happen then it would obviously have a negative impact on job creation in Switzerland."



Intervention failed
Already in February, Swissmem was warning that the worst consequences of the strong franc were yet to hit companies. The delayed effects of steadily deteriorating conditions could force some firms to go bankrupt, Swissmem warned at its annual news conference.

Since then, the franc has gained yet more ground against the euro and the dollar – the currencies of its two largest trading blocs.

Thomas Jordan, vice-president of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), said this week that he was "very concerned" about the latest developments.

Although the SNB stands poised to intervene in the foreign exchange markets should the franc's appreciation threaten deflation in Switzerland, previous efforts in this direction had only met with limited success given the size and scale of the forces affecting exchange rates.



Greek tragedy unfolding
The latest fears that Greece would be unable to pay back its debts, despite a massive bailout from the European Union, has caused many investors to flee equity markets in favour of cash holdings in the franc, according to Julius Bär currency expert David Kohl.

"Renewed speculation about Greece failing to service its debts has acted as a trigger to unwind over-stretched positions, particularly those that shortened the US dollar," he told swissinfo.ch.

Kohl believes the current suppression of risk appetite could last several weeks before the franc starts to lose ground later in the summer to trade at SFr1.25 against the euro and SFr1.28 by the end of the year.

But he was less optimistic about the dollar rallying in the face of mountainous state deficits in the United States.

"I expect the franc to stay strong against the dollar for longer because the US government is not tackling its debt problem," he said.



Backfiring strategy
Jan-Egbert Sturm, head of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, fears that the European debt crisis may be about the reach a new and more dangerous chapter. Quite apart from Spain or Italy possibly needing a bailout next, the European Central Bank (ECB) may have overstretched itself, according to Sturm.

The ECB has been working around the clock for the last year to prop up the failing economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal by buying up vast quantities of government bonds.

The full extent of that strategy is only starting to become clear as Greece struggles to impose reforms that would help it pay off the bonds it sold to the ECB.

Sturm fears that the ECB's bond buying programme could backfire if they are not paid back.

"If that happens then it is an entirely different story," he told swissinfo.ch. "The capital base of the ECB is at stake and that could change the picture from being a country specific problem to a Europe-wide problem."

Although not directly affected by the problems of eurozone countries or the ECB, Switzerland would inevitably feel the effects as more investors bought its currency.

"Large money flows into Switzerland are good for the financial sector, but not for exporters," Sturm told swissinfo.ch. "I am still worried about the consequences for Swiss exporters – not today, but tomorrow."



Matthew Allen, swissinfo.ch

[grupo guitarlumber] 24/5/2011 07:51

SNB May Have Room to Increase Swiss Rates as Economy Defies Franc Strength
By Simone Meier - May 24, 2011 12:01 AM GMT+0200
inShare.0More
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email . Philipp Hildebrand, president of the Swiss National Bank. Photographer: Adrian Moser/Bloomberg
Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand may soon have room to raise borrowing costs for the first time in almost four years as the economy defies the franc's surge.

Policy makers are weighing the threat of near-zero interest rates stoking property prices against the risk that an increase in the benchmark will push up the franc. While the currency has gained about 20 percent against the euro since the SNB cut its benchmark to 0.25 percent in March 2009, there are few signs that the exchange rate is undermining the recovery, with exports increasing and leading indicators signaling quickening growth.

"Does the economy really need interest rates near zero?" said David Kohl, deputy chief economist at Julius Baer Group in Frankfurt. "No, it doesn't. Now is exactly the right time to raise borrowing costs because any increase would only show an impact on the economy in a year," he said. The recovery is strong enough to weather borrowing costs of 1 percent to 1.5 percent, according to Kohl.

While Swiss rates, the lowest among major global economies after Japan and the U.S., have spurred the economy's recovery from a 2009 slump, they're also fueling housing demand. Prices for single-family homes jumped 4.7 percent in 2010, data compiled by real-estate consultant Wueest & Partner AG show. The region of Geneva led the gains, with prices climbing 12 percent.

Mortgage Market
Hildebrand toughened his tone on the mortgage market last month, saying that "imbalances with serious repercussions" can emerge if borrowing costs remain at a "very low level for a long time." In their March assessment, policy makers said the property market warrants their "full attention."

"An increase would be the beginning of a normalization," said Caesar Lack, head of economic research at UBS AG's Wealth Management Research in Zurich and a former SNB economist. "It wouldn't have much of an impact on the franc. But the fact that they've kept rates on hold for so long indicates that they're extremely worried about possible implications."

Five of 23 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast that the Zurich-based SNB will raise its key rate on June 16, compared with none in March, marking the biggest division since the SNB cut its benchmark rate to near-zero more than two years ago. Among those predicting an increase are analysts at UBS and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

Upside Risks
The European Central Bank increased borrowing costs last month for the first time in almost three years, while central banks in Sweden, Norway and Russia also have raised their benchmark rates. Hildebrand has indicated a growing unease about price pressures, saying April 29 that the economy is expanding "more vigorously than anticipated" and "certain upside risks" on inflation "are beginning to emerge."

The median forecast among economists is for a rate increase in September. The SNB has four regular meetings a year.

The franc was at 1.2381 per euro late yesterday in Zurich, after breaking an earlier record of 1.2403 that was reached at the end of 2010. The currency, perceived as a so-called safe haven, has risen 6 percent since April 6 as the euro-area's debt crisis worsened. It was at an all-time high of 85.54 centimes per dollar on May 4.

"The currency isn't having any significant impact on the economy," said Dirk Schumacher, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Frankfurt. The SNB "clearly risks being behind the curve," he said.

Overcoming Appreciation
Data suggest the recovery can withstand a policy tightening just as it has overcome the currency appreciation. Strengthening global growth has boosted demand for goods ranging from Swatch Group AG (UHR) watches to ABB Ltd. (ABBN) turbochargers, with exports surging 9.8 percent in the first quarter from a year ago when adjusted for inflation and work days. Unemployment is at 3.1 percent, the lowest since February 2009, and KOF leading indicators rose to the highest in almost five years last month.

The Swiss economy may expand 2.4 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2012, the BAK Basel Economics research institute said. That's above the SNB's forecast of about 2 percent for 2011. In 2010, gross domestic product rose 2.6 percent. In the euro region, GDP may advance 1.6 percent this year, the European Commission said.

Foreign sales continued to grow even as the real effective exchange rate rose 10 percent in the past year, according to Jan Amrit Poser, the chief economist at Bank Sarasin in Zurich. Such an appreciation usually translates into a 15 percent plunge.

'Export Miracle'
This "can only be described as an export miracle," Poser said. "It appears that exports are less susceptible to prices than generally thought. We expect that the SNB will undertake its first tentative interest-rate hike in June."

For Alexander Koch, an economist at UniCredit Group in Munich, the SNB can afford to keep borrowing costs on hold until its September meeting. Inflation was 0.3 percent in April, compared with 2.8 percent in the euro area, partly as the franc's gain softened the impact of rising oil prices.

"The economic situation has improved further and exports have resisted the franc's strength," Koch said. "Still, as long as inflation remains subdued, there's no need for the SNB to raise rates anytime soon."

To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Zurich at [e-mail]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Craig Stirling at [e-mail]
.

[grigor] 20/5/2011 12:55

Tata report a fall in demand for structural steel

[hedger] 20/5/2011 12:37

Well spotted jonwig, that's a good chunk of positive news after what's been a poor week for SFR.
H

[jonwig] 20/5/2011 06:50

It is reported that a steel company in North Yorkshire has secured a GBP 48 million deal to provide steel for Heathrow's Terminal 2 building.

Severfield Rowen will provide thousands of tonnes of steel for the frame of the building including floors, staircases and the roof. The company has previously provided steel for the Terminal 5 building.

The development of Heathrow's Terminal 2 is part of a GBP 4.8 billion investment into the airport. It is hoped the new terminal will open in 2014.

Mr Peter Emerson from Severfield Rowen said that "The lion's share of the work is coming out of our plants in Thirsk and Scarborough, so a significant proportion of that GBP 48 million is in fact being spent in north Yorkshire. The impact of it is, of course, very positive and projects of this size will help to maintain employment opportunities for all our people."

Transport companies in North Yorkshire will be used to transfer the steel loads from Thirsk to Heathrow.

[alter ego] 18/5/2011 09:58

look fwd to them, thanks

[jonwig] 18/5/2011 08:41

Sure, I'll share my thoughts!

[alter ego] 18/5/2011 08:36

any chance you could do a write up? Here or in the other place.

[jonwig] 18/5/2011 08:15

True enough, though the India JV looks better than ever. (Slippage down to other parts of construction being delayed.)

AGM on 8 June - posh hotel for lunch, same as last year. I hope to get there.

[alter ego] 18/5/2011 08:12

IMS out - not much joy yet
www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201105180700137841G

[waldron] 16/5/2011 15:23

Bloomberg

Franc Gains Versus Major Peers as Ministers Meet; Kiwi Declines
May 16, 2011, 9:42 AM EDT
More From Businessweek
Greek Government Bonds Decline as EU Mulls Additional Bailout
Euro Declines Versus Dollar Before EU Ministers Meet on Greece
Yen, Dollar Rise Versus Major Peers as Stocks Fall; Rand Slumps
German Yield Spread Narrows as European GDP Growth Accelerates
Euro Rises as Data Show Core Economies Strong; Yen, Dollar Gain
Story Tools
e-mail this story print this story 0diggsdiggadd to Business Exchange By Allison Bennett and Paul Dobson

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc rose against all 16 of its most-traded peers as investors sought the safest assets amid speculation a meeting of finance ministers will struggle to resolve the euro area's debt crisis.

The franc rose from its weakest level against the dollar since April 20 before ministers discuss Portugal and Greece at meetings in Brussels today. The dollar gained versus its Canadian and New Zealand counterparts as crude oil declined and manufacturing in the New York region expanded at a slower pace.

"The Swissie is still the one people like," said Brian Kim, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. "We will see euro-Swiss go lower if we see anything that people perceive as disappointing. The dollar is getting a better safe- haven bid because of the repricing of risk and reducing of dollar shorts." A short is a bet an asset will fall.

The franc appreciated 0.5 percent against the euro to 1.2543 at 9:15 a.m. in New York, and strengthened 0.8 percent to 88.57 centimes per dollar. It earlier depreciated 0.3 percent to 89.51 centimes, the weakest since April 20.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.4173, from $1.4119 on May 13. It earlier dropped to $1.4048, the weakest level since March 29. Europe's shared currency gained 0.4 percent to 114.54 yen, from 114.06. The U.S. currency was little changed at 80.82 yen.

Euro Slides

The euro dropped 0.8 percent over the past month in a measure of the currencies of 10 developed nations, the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Currency Indexes, as yields for the region's most-indebted nations jumped amid heightened concern the countries including Greece may struggle to repay their debt. The yen has gained 4.7 percent in the period, while the dollar appreciated 1.4 percent.

Futures traders decreased their bets that the euro will gain against the dollar, May 13 figures from the Washington- based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the euro compared with those on a drop was 61,447 on May 10, compared with so-called net longs of 99,516 a week earlier, the data showed.

Finance ministers from the euro region will discuss Greece's debt predicament as well as 78 billion euros ($110 billion) in aid for Portugal and the nomination of Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi to be the next president of the European Central Bank.

No Debt Restructuring

Any extension of the maturities of Greek bonds would have to involve private investors, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview with ARD television yesterday. "Debt restructuring is not in the cards," European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels today.

Nemat Shafik, a deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, will represent the institution at the Brussels meeting after Managing Director Dominique Strauss- Kahn was charged with attempted rape in New York. Strauss-Kahn denies the charges.

"There's a lot of political noise at this point," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York, said on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop" in an interview with Betty Liu. "As far as the euro is concerned, and it's been struggling recently, we've been waiting for a resolution. The euro's going to be under a little bit of pressure until we get a scope on the Greece situation."

Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 0.3 percent, and the MSCI World Index of stocks dropped 0.5 percent.

New York Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index fell to 11.9 from a one-year high of 21.7 in April as the cost of raw materials surged. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected it would slip to 19.6.

Canada's dollar reached its lowest level since March versus its U.S. counterpart as crude oil, Canada's biggest export, fell as much as 2 percent.

The Canadian currency depreciated as much as 0.9 percent to 97.71 cents per U.S. dollar, the weakest level since March 29, before trading at 97.41 cents.

New Zealand's dollar was the worst performer among major currencies as investors pared demand for assets related to commodity prices. The currency, nicknamed the kiwi, dropped 1.3 percent to 77.70 U.S. cents, and fell 1.2 percent to 62.88 yen,.

--Editors: Greg Storey, Dave Liedtka

To contact the reporters on this story: Allison Bennett in New York at [e-mail]; Paul Dobson in London at [e-mail].

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at [e-mail]

[ariane] 11/5/2011 13:38

Swiss, Swede Currencies Beat Euro As D-Mark Proxies, UBS says
Share this article
The Swiss franc is still the best successor to Germany's legacy currency, the Deutsche mark, but the Swedish krona is a rising contender as a safe-haven currency investment in times of crisis, according to Ubs.

"Though both Sweden and Switzerland have strong trade links with Germany and both have firm fiscal fundamentals, the Swiss National Bank's vastly superior foreign exchange reserves and the capacity of Swiss fund managers to repatriate assets from abroad, results in the franc outperforming the krona when investors are risk-averse," Mansoor Mohi-uddin, UBS' chief currency strategist, said in a note to clients.

On a one-year basis, the franc and krona have strengthened by about 21% and 18%, respectively, against the dollar as the Federal Reserve has opened up the greenback printing presses through its quantitative easing program. But against the euro they are also about 10% and 7% higher over the same period as the euro zone's sovereign crisis has rumbled on.

When there is extreme currency volatility the Swiss central bank has more firepower to defend its domestic currency compared with Sweden's Riksbank. "Safe haven-seeking investors are thus likely to favour the franc over the krona during grave crises," he said.

But while the Swiss currency appears to be top dog, the krona "still appears to have more of a claim as a proxy for the old Deutsche mark than the euro does," he added.

The Swedish central bank's recent series of interest rate hikes to curb inflation means its actions chime more closely with the historically hawkish Bundesbank in the minds of investors than the European Central Bank currently does, he said.

Investors looking for a substitute for German's former currency should look at both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona ahead of the euro.

"The franc outperforms the euro when investors are risk-averse--making it the superior mark in our view--while the krona outperforms the euro when investors are bullish owing to the Riksbank's willingness to raise interest rates," he said.

At 0925 GMT, the krona was at SEK6.2196 against the dollar and SEK8.9530 against the euro, while the franc was at CHF1.2663 against the euro and CHF0.8795 against the buck.

-By Siva Sithraputhran, Dow Jones Newswires; [phone]; [e-mail]

[jonwig] 15/4/2011 10:48

Two holdings RNSs:

Aviva a small increase,

Ameriprise at 5% for clients. (US wealth management.)

[jadeticl] 29/3/2011 11:04

We are a long way from the recent high of 330p, but we seem to be in a "creeping up" phase just now after the steep fall.