Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 10/3/2018 00:06

chestnuts - almsivi suggested only a section of the line might be replaced. Unlikely they would replace, insulate and heat the entire 30Km line imo, but, if a section has buckled, it would create a choke point where wax build-up occurs. This may be the type of solution envisaged:





FB - Mitch Flegg indicated the intention to make a decision on the export route from Columbus in H1/18.



Previously, the intention was "Columbus offtake route election decision and FDP submission by mid 2018"*, so whether Mitch was rowing back on the FDP due to pressure of workload with BKR expansion remains to be seen.

* see slide 17

[fardels bear] 09/3/2018 21:09

When are we expecting the FDP to be submitted for Columbus?

[chestnuts] 09/3/2018 20:50

Captain

My take on it they will probably replace the pipe with an insulated one and maybe heated, and if they do Columbus will come through Lamond route which in turn benefit the pipe as if I recall Columbus as less wax, but I can't remember where I got that info,

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 17:56

I wonder if there is going to be a silver lining here I am specifically thinking about the comment about

"a permanent solution to the pipeline wax problem is being advanced"

I wonder if this is could also be in preparation for and part of any future Columbus development agreement? After all I would guess it would be of significant benefit to all parties.

I think in the background things could/might potentially be shaping up quiet nicely.

Tick Tock

[underdog1] 09/3/2018 16:51

Quite a disappointing update all in all imo. Still hopeful that once the Erskine issue has a permanent fix we can expect significant upside from these depleted levels. Good top up opportunity for any punters yet to get in...

[h0me] 09/3/2018 13:03

Worth a nibble at low 70's

[sawney] 09/3/2018 12:09

Peel Hunt reiterate "a buy", pity no other Broker has initiated coverage...yet

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 10:23

Chesty yes I agree

[stevieniamh] 09/3/2018 09:58

With production shut in for a period of time there will be a natural increase in downhole pressure and thus increased flow when the taps are opened up again. So, it is totally realistic that 20k bopd immediately after resumption of production will tail off to a 'normal' flow rate in the region of an average of 16k bopd.

[chestnuts] 09/3/2018 09:52

capt

Production didnt recommence at BKR till the 12th but forties opened on 27th Dec, 15 days later, its the catapillar effect like in traffic.

So in fact BKR could be producing even more than the 20k its just the everyday running issues that happen.

[farmscan] 09/3/2018 09:24

Good point cfc. Doesn't take many days out (since 12th jan), to knock the daily average down.

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 09:19

The forties pipeline had an emergency shut down only last month due to automated valve closing a number of platforms reportedly had to shut in production. Its probably a lot more complicated than turning a tap on and off and could take a while to bring production back up. Potentially there are plenty of every day operational reasons to account for such fluctuations.

Yes its good to keep and eye on such things but I personally think its nothing more than normal operations.

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 09:15

All that said even if we were stuck at 16k I'd still argue the current share price is criminally cheap.

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 09:12

A drop from 20k to 16k does not indicate field depletion. They don't deplete like that. Obviously due to some other factor such as the subsea work testing mentioned above or any number of factors.
Pressure would gradually fall and production decline slowly over time. Otherwise we'd be at zero by xmas. Daft to suggest thats the reason.

No one has suggested field depletion as far as I'm aware?

Just would be nice to get clarification from SQZ as to what the reason is for the reduction from 20k.

[dcarn] 09/3/2018 09:09

The Hardys are obviously very astute investors that know a sure fire winner when they see one. There was a link to their background on one of the pages after the their last top up.

Fully agree with Pineapple1 with regards to the production fluctuation.

[chestnuts] 09/3/2018 09:08

BKR stopped producing before xmas so pressure built up and whoosh and production shot up as it would , but also they could have had a down day or 2 , BP are not going to announce if they shut down for a day or so , Serica doesnt say if a valve fails on Erskin and they have to replace it and it takes 2 days,

[pineapple1] 09/3/2018 09:00

A drop from 20k to 16k does not indicate field depletion. They don't deplete like that. Obviously due to some other factor such as the subsea work testing mentioned above or any number of factors.
Pressure would gradually fall and production decline slowly over time. Otherwise we'd be at zero by xmas. Daft to suggest thats the reason.
imho

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 09:00

One things for sure you don't build up a big stake like that with out an exit plan which normally means your not in it for a piddling ten or twenty percent payoff but a high probability your looking at being taken out at a significant premium.

[chestnuts] 09/3/2018 08:58

Since the reopening of forties Serica netted $12.6m before tax not bad for A SMALL OILER

[sawney] 09/3/2018 08:57

...the Hardy's buying off Canaccord..??..be nice if they updated the major shareholders page...

[dcarn] 09/3/2018 08:49

I think the Subsea work was completed by end of last year as per the wording of the link i posted a coupe of weeks ago.

[spandy83] 09/3/2018 08:40

Missed the 60s top up again... grr!I think Nigel is right about the production rate as they clearly say 'since re-start' so that, by definition excludes the downtime period.Who are these Hardy people who keep stale building in SQZ; 11% is quite a stake! And still buying it seems... good to see :)

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 08:38

Didn't they just have a load of subsea work done on the BKR platforms this could easily have interrupted production during this period. The deal is set up to take a longer term view of production there are targets to meet that effect the percentages. Basing any long term outlook on just 2 months average production that could well have been interrupted could easily lead to a very skewed outlook.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 08:35

Surely it's above fb?
're Aussieb reply no mate lets be clear theyre not depleting faster than expected!! (Lol)
I still think it could be the year cumulative average but as I say will seek clarification at some point andxwilk gapokly post up if my initial assumption wrong!
There are always fluctyarionsnin production but 'the accountant' is right these do seem high and along with the 20k titbit in last ops date I think they should have provided a little more information on this because it will prompt the exact observations people have made !
Busy now but back at lunch. Best of luck all!