Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 09/3/2018 08:26

Ignore my angry reply below. I see you were quoting someone else.

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 08:21

If u think about it, there not going to be running something at full speed to start with after something is broken or the fields are depleting quicker than anticipated

And if you read the RNS you'll note it was running at 20k straight after the interruption and now averages 16k.

I get the fluctuation point but that's a huge range of fluctuation.

[0rient] 09/3/2018 08:19

^^^^Look like it will be a top buy by the end of day!! :-)

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 08:13

Its going to fluctuate guys its a complicated asset.

[aussieb3] 09/3/2018 08:11

If u think about it, there not going to be running something at full speed to start with after something is broken or the fields are depleting quicker than anticipated

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 08:10

Well if that is the case then that is lower than I was expecting. I 'may' week clarification if I have time later!

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 08:07

It's not the cumulative average for the year - they've stated very clearly it doesn't include that time.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 08:06

Wtf, of course it matters!! (Lol).
If that was the average cumulative for the year then it implies a daily average of circa 20k bbl per day but if that is the daily average cumulative for period since start up then the 20k per day was a bit bloody misleading!! Ie for one day it was 20k then all the rest 15.9 k per day which is lower than I'd expected!!

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 07:58

I read that as average total cumulative not daily?!

Doesn't matter - they've been clear that since it restarted production has averaged 16k - it's irrelevant what happened before it was fully working in early Jan.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 07:56

I read that as average total cumulative not daily?!

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 07:54

That's wrong dunder as they state quite clearly since then:

Since restart in January, following the shut-down of the Forties pipeline, Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields (BKR) have produced on average approximately 16,000 boe/d net to BP.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 07:52

Nigel see my post above.
I checked the math b4 I posted my concerns (lol!).
The impact of the 12 days shut down for what was an average of say, cumulative days prod 64 days impacts quite highly and I'm coming up with around daily average 20k per day?
Please re-clarify your concerns?!

[croasdalelfc] 09/3/2018 07:49

Are we expecting results in April?

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 07:44

Concern that in January they said :


Production from BKR was interrupted due to the closure of the Forties Pipeline system in December. Since the restart of operations, reported on 12 January, production rates have routinely been in excess of 20,000 boe/d net to BP. Under the terms of the transaction, Serica will receive 40% of the pre-tax net cash flow for BKR in 2018, rising to 50% in 2019, 60% in 2020 and 2021 and 100% thereafter.

Now saying :


(BKR) have produced on average approximately 16,000 boe/d net to BP.

Would at least show dome pretty major fluctuations to average 4,000 boe/d below max potential.

[captainfatcat] 09/3/2018 07:44

So Sericas share of the current BKR production is roughly 6500boepd with the high gas prices that's still not to shabby.

Not being reliant on just one asset is paying off already.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 07:40

F me had to edit the above post quite a lot because of auto correct!

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 07:38

Also tbh bkr didn't come on stream until 12.01 hence this will have brought cumulative ytd down lower than I initially appreciated so all in, a not too bad update (including the higher than expected oil gas prices?).

[0rient] 09/3/2018 07:38

My money is on SQZ being taken out once BKR is completed..market cap ridiculously low considering what income we will be generating. It will be either a serious re-rate by the markets or if not then a take-over.

[spandy83] 09/3/2018 07:34

You're quite right Hydrus; I totally missed that in January's update... I had 'mid 2018' or end of H1 in my head from when they originally announced the deal... my bad

[hydrus] 09/3/2018 07:32

We already knew about it being Q3

[spandy83] 09/3/2018 07:24

Hmm... not a great update. Still no Erskine flow and a very subtle push back of BKR completion to Q3. Was meant to be June no? Presumably we won't actually get any cash until completion (if any as lots is used to finance the deal)...May get a top up opportunity today.

[dunderheed] 09/3/2018 07:24

Well exactly as almvisi mentioned. Bkr a bit lower than I'd thought? Either way offset by higher prices so I think reasonable / good news generally?!

[fardels bear] 08/3/2018 13:08

Probably not... How long have we been waiting now?