Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[74sjh] 10/9/2024 10:21

Two simple moves that sqz could have done but didn't - cancel the dividend and move to the main market.If they continue as they are, their tax credits will run out in a few years, they will have a far smaller M&A war chest then they could have had and AIM listed paper is not going to appeal to investors for deals as much as main market.

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 10:10

Baron Investments is a fake... rarely mentions his losers/doesn't display his holdings on X account/for instance akin to OilinvestorAl.

Was trumpeting FXPO for years and it is now a fraction of when he was blathering as to the money spinner his large 7 figure holding in FXPO will be / his largest holding!!! Surely Russia and iron ore risk should have been taken into account!!

Family money / spoilt boy with minimal success now trying to hoodwink to subscribe to his hokum!!!

Recent flip flop on Indivior emblematic of his capricious investment style/advice - bleating about the share / one change in guidance by INDV and share fall Tweeted like a child that he has sold out!! And then the share went up 25% on the next announcement.

The list is endless - Buy ARCM as long as it is under 4p, Recently Baron bought Gem Diamonds higher than it is presently, banging on about Dowlais when it was nearly 2x current levels etc!!! Stated SFOR is a great buy in the mid 50s - went down all the way to 36p post,... Track the fraud and the list is endless... better to buy the Index than subscribe to his nonsense!!!

A total and utter fake!!! Even a monkey hitting a dart board has some hits!!

SQZ at 50p with a dividend yield of 46% - clown!!!

oilinvestorAl10 Sep '24 - 09:56 - 7039 of 7049
0 0 0
I know a lot of you follow Barron . But I disagree with him here! I can’t see a world where it falls anywhere near that!

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 10:02

Indeed I3E Energy being taken out on the cheap and could be a good play!!!

Jadestone Energy with Asian assets also an attractive proposition!!

RoundtheWorld10 Sep '24 - 10:44 - 7045 of 7048
0 1 0
I hear there was mention of more acquisitions in safe jurisdictions. They would be well advised to look across the pond to North America. Plenty of undervalued CO’s there particularly in Alberta, Canada.

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 10:01

Detailed in page 6 of today's Half Year Presentation ->



• Serica is well positioned to generate material free cash flow in coming years
• Optionality over capital allocation, with limited committed spend
• In the right fiscal environment, keen to continue reinvesting
• Potential in both the organic portfolio, and to create value for shareholders via acquisition
• Aim to provide an attractive mix of growth and returns
• $5 change in oil price and 5p change in gas price in combination would result in $90 million incremental cashflow

* Cash flow generated at Brent price of $75/bbl and UK NBP of 80p/therm, with headline tax rate of 78% and zero EPL capital allowances

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 09:53

Current EPL is 75% -going up on 1 Nov to 78% -> 3% more is not a lot / investment allowance changes are more of a factor. However, SQZ would have finished most of their drilling by H1 2025!!

Moreover as outlined in the Half Year RNS stated and was reiterated in today's Webinar -> SQZ will generate nearly US$500mn of after tax free cash flow with EPL at 78% and accounting for sustaining Capex to maintain production at ~ 40k boe/d -> This outlook is with Brent at $75 and UK Gas price at 85p.

tabhair10 Sep '24 - 09:40 - 7036 of 7045
0 2 0
Ashkv, you are one of the more switched on contributors and I generally more in agreement with your analysis than not, but I don't think the capacity for the dividend is as sustained as you think.

Remember, the increased EPL of 78% doesn't kick in until November 1st of 2024, a month and a half away. It's not until the next set of results that we will start to feel the impact of the increased EPL.

[creditcrunchies] 10/9/2024 09:51

Being confident maintaining the dividend if they were being cautious they'd have cut it. My gut feeling is something is brewing

[roundtheworld] 10/9/2024 09:44

I hear there was mention of more acquisitions in safe jurisdictions. They would be well advised to look across the pond to North America. Plenty of undervalued CO’s there particularly in Alberta, Canada.

[swanvesta] 10/9/2024 09:31

Al, why do you keep talking about Uncle Sam? UK companies don't owe tax to the US. Don't you mean Uncle Keir?

[yasx] 10/9/2024 09:06

Headwind Energy!! Great phrase OilAl.

Good summary as usual.

I have been buying aggressively this morning - the presentation was very good, not the usual AIM guff.

[parob] 10/9/2024 09:04

I think we see the bottom going in today. Would be bullish should we finish blue.

[undervaluedassets] 10/9/2024 09:01

yield this year set to be (a well covered) 17%

[undervaluedassets] 10/9/2024 08:58

from conference call..

CEO makes the point they will have produced cash equivalent to the Serica's entire market cap with just 3 years cash generation.

management made the point that given the above and the current shareprice the company is deeply "misunderstood"

I have to concurr

[oilinvestoral] 10/9/2024 08:56

I know a lot of you follow Barron . But I disagree with him here! I can't see a world where it falls anywhere near that! https://x.com/baroninvestment/status/1833410456972624266?s=46&t=ySHTOHElP3t1B4beGtacxw

[undervaluedassets] 10/9/2024 08:49

from conference call...

serious consideration being given to moving to main market and away from AIM.

[tabhair] 10/9/2024 08:40

Ashkv, you are one of the more switched on contributors and I generally more in agreement with your analysis than not, but I don't think the capacity for the dividend is as sustained as you think.

Remember, the increased EPL of 78% doesn't kick in until November 1st of 2024, a month and a half away. It's not until the next set of results that we will start to feel the impact of the increased EPL.

[stemis] 10/9/2024 08:32

EV at 113p = $578m

EBITDAX (for 6 months) = $279m

Market waiting for chancellor to announce changes to tax regime.

[nemesis6] 10/9/2024 08:27

whoever said this pile of dross had £1 written all over it was correct

[undervaluedassets] 10/9/2024 08:20

here is a bonkers fact..

If this was in the the FTSE 250 would be at position 25 by profitability.

[e43] 10/9/2024 08:07

Feel a shareholder return of half div half sharebuyback would be a better strategy for SQZ in Current situation.

[oilinvestoral] 10/9/2024 08:04

"at 40k boe/d - are you of the view that market is correctly pricing SQZ production outlook given what you assert below? ->"------------On the contrary , my dear Ashkv!! I personally think the market is egregiously and extremely undervaluing the assets and the future potential of SQZ! Which is why I continue to hold and will add significantly more if the shares hit 10 shares for a tenner in the coming days! The tax regime has completely decimated confidence in the industry but even with the regressive regime, the shares should be higher than today's level! With my posts below, I was simply trying to explain to some of those who have been bamboozled by this mornings market reaction (5% drop) to what they deemed "excellent results"! The "But but but the yield is 17%" gang!The "why is there no $150 million tender offer announced" crew!Although some people have made it their hobby horse to blame the government, it is not all down to tax! A lot of our cluster fork was self inflicted! We currently should have net cash in the bank of approximately 150p / share and no RBL if we simply gave the Headwind Energy acquisition a wide berth!

[undervaluedassets] 10/9/2024 08:03

on the conference call

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 07:53

If you agree sustaining Capex will maintain production at 40k boe/d - are you of the view that market is correctly pricing SQZ production outlook given what you assert below? ->

----
"The market is asking questions about operational performance and efficiency. As you can see production drops off a cliff if you don’t invest or if you have operational challenges!"

[Caveat current CEO asserts being an oil guy that SQZ has been chronically "operationally challenged" and he intends to rectify this!!]