Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 07:07

25% Net Payout Yield for me at present. SQZ overall has been very profitable!! Barring this last tranche that I held onto!!!

Remaining holding down quite a bit in Capital value but much less with the juicy dividend!!!

This is one where the LTHs really missed out if the didn't cash out!!!

From the other board by posted Surprised ->

"Nicely set, excellent div, cash flow, profits ⬆️Today 07:33
'Our confidence in our cash generation outlook, together with our strong balance sheet, gives us capital allocation options. Paramount amongst these will always be supporting material shareholder returns which is why we are announcing today that we are holding the interim dividend flat at 9p per share. In addition, to sustain the longevity of our model, we want to continue reinvesting our cash flows into our UK North Sea assets' We will only be able to make these investments if the fiscal environment allows us to generate a fair return on your capital.

We also have the option to add to our portfolio through acquisitions and that is why we will continue, intensively but prudently, to seek value-accretive M&A, both at home and abroad.

SQZ expectation of generating over half a billion dollars of cash flow after currently committed investments over the coming three years at current commodity prices, after factoring in the expected tax regime

Those tax losses are now coming into play and largely shielding SQZ from labour's WFT, sentiment due to the EPL and Labour's initial plans have crashed the share price recently, HOWEVER, the cash flow generated, the divi and profitabilty of SQZ is at odds to todays share price and should see a steady rise over coming weeks as cash, profits and positivity takeover ⬆️"

[oilinvestoral] 10/9/2024 07:07

"At this sort of share price even a $150mn Tender Offer at 150p makes sense!!!"----Erm they don't have the cash to do a $150m tender offer ! Read the balance sheet. Add to that the ongoing LWI campaign and extensive drilling campaign capex + the H2 weighted tax and dividend payments. There was a reason why the emphasised that cash out flows were going to be heavier in H2.... To address this question !

[parob] 10/9/2024 07:05

Entered. Hopefully today sees the bottom.Like the yield and capital growth potential.

[oilinvestoral] 10/9/2024 07:04

"Cracking 8% yield for shareholders "-------The yield depends on when you bought ! It's a 90% yield on the shares some of us bought in 2015-2016 but it's a 2% yield for the those who were impaled in the 2022 spike ... it's all relative ....

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 07:00

At this sort of share price even a $150mn Tender Offer at 150p makes sense!!!

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 06:57

Blame it on the tories AND LABOUR

Tories put in the knife and LABOUR TWISTED THE KNIFE AND THAN PLUNGED IT AGAIN IN THE BACK AND TWISTED/TWISTED until UK Oil & Gas is in the death throes... UK Current Account Deficit further in the toilet!!!

Labour's benefactor Soros had once conveyed the only economic factor going for the UK was North Sea Oil &Gas!!!

Two Tier Kier will go down as the worst PM in UK history!!!

[scepticalinvestor] 10/9/2024 06:54

Sadly not a good sector to be investing in now - main factors are ridiculous UK fiscal regime ie one sided taxation on oilers.The irony is that cutting grannies fuel allowance may not have been needed if the gov have been more supportive of the industry Blame is squarely with the tories - complete thickos

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 06:53

SQZ is greatly undervalued - and I liked/welcome the new Subsurface Engineer CEO!!!

Godspeed to him and I will be adding on weakness as I believe we have a new competent CEO who is focused on the nuts/bolts and shareholder return not empire building.

Also SQZ production is 60% gas which has been on the upswing as compared to Brent!

It was also notable that results were not reported in GBP!!!

Mitch Flegg when I queried him on GBP/USD cash balance mix he wsa dismissive of USD conveying that SQZ is a BRITISH company and held all balances in GBP. Perhaps why cash balances look poorer in USD in today's HY Report :)

Well new CEO has inculcated if the British government doesn't show you the love - time to take your firms/shareholders funds elsewhere where the extremely high risk E&P projects can attain minimally adequate shareholder returns!!!

[farmscan] 10/9/2024 06:50

All pretty good as far as i can see having skimmed through. 9p interim divi. Operating expenses at $19 boe in line with guidance. Unexpected downtime caused by only having one gas compressor, which has occurred before, but hopefully fixed by year end, but there will always be glitches in production with that number of fields.

[bountyhunter] 10/9/2024 06:46

MC ~$600m
Tax losses carried forwards > $1b
You need to add that to your summary ash.

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 06:46

SP-> 112.60p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 112.6p on 10 Sep 24-> 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -58.45%
Brent-> $71.60
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £89.50
Shares Outstanding-> 390,457,635
GBPUSD-> 1.310
MarketCap GBP-> £439,655,297
MarketCap USD-> $575,948,439
Cash USD (30 June 24)-> $362,000,000
Debt (USD) (30 Jun 24)-> $231,000,000
NET CASH (USD) (30 Jun 24)-> $131,000,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 22.75%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 25.61p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $444,948,439
2024 Revised Down Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-44kbpd]-> 42,500
SQZ Average Production Half Year 2024 (30 June 24) -> 43,700
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel Revised Down 2024 Mid-Guidance Production -> $10,469
EV/Barrel SQZ Half Year 2024-> $10,182
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $11,090
Decommissioning Provision (Per HY 24 Results)-> $133,200,000
EV/Barrel Revised Down Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $13,603
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 20.43%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 23.84%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $3.18
Tax Losses to offset tax payables (Half Year 2024)-> $1,000,000,000

[imjustdandy] 10/9/2024 06:41

Can't ask for anything better than this. Cracking 8% yield for shareholders just on the interim alone.

[oilinvestoral] 10/9/2024 06:40

Excellent news about the dividends! But there are a few hidden nasties They warn on production on the second half will be poor. Average for the first half is almost 44k BOPD so for the company to guide an average at the lower end of guidance for the year (which is around 41,000 BOPD, the second half needs to be around 37-38k BOPD....Operational costs have also gone up ...Significant shutdown in Triton experienced delays and took 75% percent longer to restart. Production only restarted just over 1 week ago Erskine has been a disaster in H1 producing 70% less than what it produced in 2023.

[bountyhunter] 10/9/2024 06:39

Potential acquisitions home & abroad being screened for value, fair enough.

[undervaluedassets] 10/9/2024 06:34

Share price action over the last few months suggested that they were heading towards bust.

Well they are not bust are they?

Robust cashflows despite the new tax regime

[mick_oi] 10/9/2024 06:34

The interim dividend is payable on 21 November 2024 to shareholders registered on 25 October 2024, with an ex-dividend date of 24 October 2024.

9p

[bountyhunter] 10/9/2024 06:33

Tax losses remained at over $1 billion at 30 June. That's impressive. Interim divi maintained at 9p. Happy with that.

[ashkv] 10/9/2024 06:33

Nothing impressive about lower end of production guidance...

Disappointed that no Buybacks!!!

The culprit the superlative acquisition by Mitch Flegg the superstar ex-CEO of SQZ who was shown the door a tad too late for share value. The board needs to be sacked too!! ->

"Due to unplanned downtime at the Triton hub, full year average production is expected to be at the bottom end of the previously stated 41-46,000 boepd guidance range"

[imjustdandy] 10/9/2024 06:25

Highly impressive update.

[creditcrunchies] 10/9/2024 06:18

Dividend 9p per share though which is huge

[spectoacc] 10/9/2024 06:14

Reassured by today's RNS, albeit shows how much damage Labour's uncertainty is causing.


"Whatever the outcome of the Autumn Budget, my focus will not waver from safety, operational delivery, and growth. The potential in the fields we operate is demonstrated by the positive early signs we are seeing from the Triton drilling programme, and I have been deeply impressed by the talented team we have within Serica that will enable us to unlock further value. Serica will continue to pursue a returns-led investment strategy, and I am confident that we are set to deliver materially cash-generative production for many years to come.""


Divi held at 9p.

[imjustdandy] 09/9/2024 09:30

CEO has spent £600k at 1.35 so don't think he will want to see this go much lower

[waterloo01] 09/9/2024 08:50

Added a few again. Cold snap coming which should warm the price of Nat Gas. A positive statement on activities would be most welcome.

[imjustdandy] 09/9/2024 08:41

17% yield if they maintain dividend

[imjustdandy] 09/9/2024 07:49

All will be revealed tomorrow