Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[creditcrunchies] 27/6/2024 06:32

They can lobby as much as they like the politicians just look for votes now they're obsessed with net zero. SQZ needs to change their strategy by being the supplier to UK's massive imports of energy by operating outside to avoid tax.

[officerdigby] 27/6/2024 06:28

Well said.. but no one in Politics cares!As the voters are spectacularly uneducated in this.Even clever people who must know the score prefer the tropes! Bad oil and gas stealing our tax monies.. etc etc.

[hunter154] 27/6/2024 06:23

It was. Sadly Red Ed will not pay any notice to it and remove capex allowances.
Our CEO should write an open letter in a main newspaper to get notice.
Starmer is weak and would probably flip if under pressure.

[slicethepie] 27/6/2024 06:10

Excellent piece by the chairman on uk o&g and how stupid our politicians are .

[petomi] 26/6/2024 14:06

The Auctus note is now available freely on the Serica website
hxxps://www.serica-energy.com/analyst-research-coverage
hxxs://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/research/SQZ-IC-26.06.24.pdf

They have a target of £2.90, after the last year or so I expect most of us LTHs would be glad to sell at 200+ having banked some dividands and gains on the way, and would leap at 250+

GLA

[sawney] 26/6/2024 12:13

Eddy baby will soon put a stop to that...:-(

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 26/6/2024 10:06

It is a very detailed note (free on Research Tree). It is not independent research though - always check the disclaimers. These notes often lead private investors astray.

[ashkv] 26/6/2024 08:10

New note out from Auctus Research on SQZ / initiating coverage ->

The below snippet caught my attention!!!

"Even under the worst case Labour policy scenario, we forecast that Serica will be able to continue to fund very generous dividend distributions and share buybacks for at least the next four years while growing its net cash position"

Target 290p

[ct8637] 25/6/2024 16:45

Looks like they're trading it as they've decreased again. Someone is offloading large chunks as there seems to be downward pressure unless there's large shorts opened

[bountyhunter] 25/6/2024 12:02

BlackRock at around 5%

[joestalin] 24/6/2024 14:34

A vote for Labour is a vote for men who dress up as women.

[jimpingle] 24/6/2024 14:27

A vote for Conservative is a vote for WAR

hxxps://x.com/BGatesIsaPyscho/status/1804825098127368574

Vote Reform party July 4th 2024

[ashkv] 24/6/2024 09:51

Given the actual change in voting shares approx 5mn of 8.427mn shares bought back went back to management as equity compensation.

Look forward to the new CEO announcing a proper acquisition soon after his tenure begins... post the horrendous last few years of this recently ousted CEO Mitch Flegg!!!

[ashkv] 24/6/2024 09:47

SQZ Ex-Div on 27 June 24 for 14p

Today's share price 154p - 14p Dividend Ex-Div on Thu this week = 140p

Given SQZ's negligible asset retirement obligations it does appear inexpensive even with the onerous Labour Govt Tax regime....

SP-> 140.00p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 140p on 14 June 24-> 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -48.34%
Brent-> $85.50
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £79.50
Shares Outstanding-> 390,457,635
GBPUSD-> 1.265
MarketCap GBP-> £546,640,689
MarketCap USD-> $691,500,472
Cash GBP [Including GBP27.5mn of Decom security deposit reimbursed in 2024] per FY 2023 Results-> £291,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23)-> $368,115,000
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23)-> £213,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $269,445,000
NET CASH (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $98,670,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 14.27%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 19.98p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $592,830,472
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> 45,400
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $13,787
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> $13,058
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $14,776
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $147,410,450
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $17,215
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 16.43%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 18.55%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $4.23

[ct8637] 24/6/2024 07:55

Now the buyback has ended let's see if the price holds or slides back. I wonder how long it'll take for the new CEO to start putting things into motion when he takes over.

[lord gnome] 24/6/2024 06:35

That worked well in boosting the share price then.

[xxnjr] 24/6/2024 06:09

".....Over the course of the Programme, the Company has acquired in aggregate 8,437,478 ordinary shares of US$0.10 each in the Company (the "Ordinary Shares") between 24 April 2024 and 21 June 2024 for a total consideration of approximately £15 million[1], at a volume weighted average price of approximately 177.78 pence per share."

[bountyhunter] 23/6/2024 17:54

Exactly spawny, which is why I suggested that SQZ needs to get their act together and follow HBR's example.

[apollocreed1] 20/6/2024 14:01

Quite good analysis here: hxxps://zerogcos.substack.com/p/serica-energy-tradition-meets-modernity

[yasx] 20/6/2024 09:21

Spawny,

Correct.

[spawny100] 20/6/2024 07:25

Surely it's obvious? Hbr have struck a deal to become a global player while sqz is still tied to the UK and its increasingly deranged politicians determined to destroy our energy security.

[bountyhunter] 20/6/2024 07:19

HBR has significantly outperformed SQZ over the last six months



I presume it's HBR's diversification abroad driving this. SQZ needs to get their act together and follow HBR's example.

[ct8637] 20/6/2024 07:13

344k shares bought and it still fell back. I wonder if there was a heads up from black rock that they were going too offload so the company figured they'd arrange a buy back to try and offset the inevitable drop. Crazy to me that this isn't around the £1.80 - £2.20 mark but thanks to the incoming Labour tax I guess a drop is to be expected.

[bountyhunter] 20/6/2024 06:57

Another 344,480 shares bought back yesterday.

Lowest price paid per share (pence per share):

150.50

Highest price paid per share (pence per share):

154.90

Volume weighted average price paid per share (pence per share):

153.0803