Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[bsg] 23/7/2024 11:56

Every one would like to get a full license but they'll keep getting paid whatever happens.

[millwallfan] 23/7/2024 11:12

Gold back over $2400 👍. If only our illustrious BOD could progress award of the full and permanent/ long term licence I think we will all be happy bunnies. I hope they are taking positive steps on this at every opportunity, as it is undoubtedly the key to success.

[tightfist] 19/7/2024 15:28

Yes, IIRC Q4 holds the 13th month salary cost bogey, and often a maintenance shutdown too?

[kennyp52] 18/7/2024 22:24

Great board here and some interesting views and posts .. all leading to my conclusion the share price is depressed due to poor management over the last half a dozen years with constant jam tomorrow. I am holding as I think if they get it spot on this could easily achieve a 500p share price so a target of 250p seems reasonable in my mind. My gut feeling is the license will be granted .. it seems to be moving forward and all this investment indicates the director’s confidence .. surely they cannot be that incompetent!

If I have read it right .. I think they are proposing a doubling of the trial license mine throughput to 100ktpa?? The trucking issue is probably not such an issue given it seems they are transporting this amount anyway and there is a road !!??

There are no practical reasons why the final quarter will not hit guidance.

I just hope these guys produce the goods for once !

[stevea171] 18/7/2024 21:49

Q4 seems to be a relatively poor gold production quarter and also for cash generation with holidays and one off payments. Maybe this should be factored in to any FY calculations.

[tightfist] 18/7/2024 21:30

The plot IS confusing, and needs to be carefully followed IMHO. There have been some good pre-emptive calls over the years, Brazil is not so transparent!

[tightfist] 18/7/2024 21:25

Kenny; Thanks for the resumé of the SRB outlook. I agree, the long wait for the final licence has also IMHO lead to a very suppressed sp; but recall that this is bureaucratic Federal Brasil, that has recently gone through a transformation/upheavel of central government, with a public sector seems to have an unresolved IR go-slow dispute (sounds familiar.....). .Casting an eye over your numbers and assumptions, I would offer:The payload of the truck may be as little as 31tThey may only operate 5dpw, 46wpa = 7 truck loads per day = 50ktpa, the maximum allowed under the Trial Licence, GU (31.01.24 RNS)In 2020?, MH gave useful guidance that haulage would cost circa 1g/t. That suggests 1 Troy.oz per truck journey, or $1,600 per return journey at $1,800 PoG and 90% recovery. A total $4/31t/km. feels high to me, BWDIK. .For reference, the truck transportation cost of Soy Beans is indicated at $9.50/t/100 miles, this equates to $1.82/31t/km. See:.https://agtransport.usda.gov/stories/s/Brazil-Soybean-Transportation-Cost-Indicators/fvuv-b6b2/. Feedback on these numbers is welcome..I understand the paving of the local interstate BR163 highway and creation of the trucking fleets was funded by the Soy Bean export trucking business, that has since hit hard times - but good news for SRB. The trucks will be provided by a contractor..The concentration of Ore became a No Brainer only in January when the GU installation was granted. The company shrewdly pre-ordered the second Sorter. The ramp-up brings intrinsic risks in Q4 - they talk of pre-crushing the low-grade stockpile to get a flying start. This may be constraining their guidance?.IMHO there is currently a great investment opportunity for the bold and courageous. Certainly not for widows and orphans! The potential cashflow is mouthwatering.

[goldgeezer] 18/7/2024 20:20

R777, you mention the Coringa license is likely. Have I missed something because its application failed for several years and I see no new reason for an approval. Reading back through news, it appears the environmental report wasn't actually required but was a PR exercise. It's now a prerequisite? I'm confused. I also note that alongside "no further progress" of the main license, a doubling of trial license volume has been mentioned. This should be highly unlikely to be successful. Palito isn't a viable mine and Coringa is unlicensed. I'm still not ready to invest and feel Serabi is ultimately insolvent without the illusive license.

[kennyp52] 18/7/2024 17:35

Tightfist .. in the RNS …

CORINGA LICENCING

As reported last quarter, in January 2024, the Company received the renewal of the GUIA trial mining license, for a period of three years and it is under the GUIA license that Coringa is operating. With respect to progress on the Installation License (LI), the Company along with its environmental consultancy, Araca, have now completed the Plano Basico Ambiental (PBA), and this study has been incorporated into the Indigenous Impact Report (ECI) and was submitted to FUNAI (the federal agency for indigenous communities) during the quarter for approval.

As I posted .. all sounds good but what is the timescale / how many other documents will need submitting ? Also contained in the RNS …

The classification plant being assembled at Coringa is progressing as planned and we expect it operational by Q4. The Company’s plans to pre-concentrate mined ore at the Coringa mine site and truck a preconcentrated product to the Palito plant, 200km to the north, will be formally documented in the forthcoming Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) which is underway by NCL. The NI 43-101 compliant Technical Report will incorporate the revised geological resource and economic study including projected operating costs considering the planned use of the classification plant and processing at the Palito Complex

As has been posted .. the business would be severely undervalued should the license be a certainty.

Reminder …

Shares in Issue 75.73m
Market Cap. £53.77m

[jj119] 18/7/2024 14:49

I wonder what the cash payback on 2.5 years of coringa might be ? I suspect positive likely justifying the investment even assuming zero chance of full license or temp extension . If you think decent if not slam dunk chance of full license the risk reward looks pretty good no?

[rachael777] 18/7/2024 12:19

I know you are right tight-fist - i think I’m just suffering ptsd from having held various amounts of Srb since the cash raise at 70p? A few years ago. My trust has worn very thin in the management and watching the crux interview it didn’t do very much to reassure me that keeping the level of investment I had in this made sense in the short term so time to reduce exposure. I struggle to see how management can be effective when the captain seems to be permanently in his bedroom lol. So as no one is forcing me to be invested here it just makes sense to step back.

An example of my concern is the steady decline in Palito grades but rather than concentrate on improving the position of the mine we have a licence for we are chucking everything into a hole we don’t have a guarantee for. I understand that a Coringa licence in all likelihood will be granted but it is not 100% guaranteed so why ratchet up your risk and exposure until it is ours. Sorry if this comes across as being overly negative but it’s just the way I feel hence I have scaled back my holding here until I see proof and not just the ramblings of a none too slick used car salesman waffling on about 70k is nearly 100k lol

[tightfist] 18/7/2024 07:25

IIRC they explained a while back why 2024 production should rise in H2 to deliver the YE guidance. If anything they seem to be incrementally be getting ahead of the game at Coringa..They are pumping organic cash into accelerating the Coringa mine - in Q2 53% of the Mill ore feed came from there. As you say, we will see the evidence in the H1 financials.. Au contraire, I find SRB an easy Hold, even if the ride is sometimes choppy!

[rachael777] 17/7/2024 19:57

Well the share price performance today was a pleasant surprise, given that production is continuing to lag behind 2024 guidance. The track record of missing production guidance does leave me wondering what next quarters excuse will be but that’s just the cynic in me. Given the elevated and consistent gold price over the last three months I thought the excess cash was disappointing which hints at costs running wild. I guess I have to wait for interims in August ? Before they confirm it. This is a hard share to hold but with gold prices moving north then it still looks a steal lol

[swanvesta] 17/7/2024 19:55

Thanks. I've looked back through the filings and I think what I'm remembering is that the ore sorter wasn't used for a period early on during covid as there wasn't enough ore being mined to fill the plant anyway (due to labour shortage.) And the company was relatively quiet about ore sorter performance after that. Also I think I had assumed it had far greater capacity than it actually has, which has been reported as saving something like 75 tpd or 15% of plant capacity. Hence was expecting a bigger bump to production, which never came.

It looks like the Coringa ore sorter will be much beefier, as they say it'll about halve the quantity of ore to transport (ie doubling grade) - so maybe 250tpd? Would be nice if they had one of those at Palito?!

[tightfist] 17/7/2024 17:04

Yes, there is a Ore Sorter operational at Palito, I understand it to be effective on both Palito and Coringa mines ore..From memory they tried different ore sorting techniques (in Brasil and Poland) on the optically different Sao Chico ore, but I don't think they cracked it efficiently - that may be the cause of the confusion?

[swanvesta] 17/7/2024 13:31

Do they have an ore sorter at Palito? Seem to remember they installed one but only remember delays getting it operational.

[jj119] 17/7/2024 12:01

Yes and in 2.5 years we should have well in excess of current mkt cap in net cash even if cotinga license not forthcoming based on the usual reversion to mean gold price assumptions. Extrapolating from today's gold price could yield a decent return in 2.5 years assuming no mine value at that point. Valuation matters ..... and just imagine for a moment what this could be worth if the license is forthcoming or even if we only get another three year trial license extension DYOR GLA

[tightfist] 17/7/2024 10:51

Hi; I easily spotted the flying $1400 AISC Pig and the 100k Jam...... I didn't hear any Licence talk.....

[kennyp52] 17/7/2024 10:22

Crushing and ore sorting will improve grades by 1.5 to 2 times ( 9g/t and better).. but production next year will be guided circa 45K .. only a 5k increase ? Plant constrained means we can only reach 60k but with moving ball mill to Palito we can go to 70k … confusing comments to be honest . Jam tomorrow 100k ounces thrown in for good measure . All our cash going into Coringa but no definitive guidance on timescale for full license and probability. He wonders why he is not trusted ! Clarity and production Mike .. gold price is at all time highs .. get your slippers off and get grafting !

[stevea171] 17/7/2024 09:21

An interview with Mike Hodgson, CEO by Crux Investor can be accessed using the following link:

[bsg] 17/7/2024 09:02

Thanks tf, did you see the flighting pig.

[kennyp52] 17/7/2024 08:54

Tightfist .. anything on the license progress in the interview .. timeline ?