Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tiger60] 07/12/2020 14:30

I think thats what the boards are for. Debate the strengths and weaknesses and make informed decisions based on feedback. Highlighting failures or calling out issues along with recognising goals met is a way to weigh up risk and appetite going forward.

We all have different views on the company and risk appetite. It is only natural to vent frustration at perceived mis management or missed targets.

It is always good to re evaluate your investment and not look for confirmation bias by only paying attention to the more optimistic posts. Sure they will be the most popular as that is what people want to read in the majority of cases. However, the share price performance here has been poor even with gold near record highs and it is fair to ask why.

I am here as it is an illiquid share which should be a beneficiary of higher gold price based on its relatively high AISC. This has not materialised as production has slowed (due to COVID). The issue is until recently we did not know that it would take until Qtr2 2021 to get back to a point whereby we can match 2020 predicted production levels. On the one side it could give investors a time to hop out and back in but the exploration potential and results may offset this if due in Jan. Lets wait and see or not as the case maybe

[swanvesta] 07/12/2020 13:59

I don't really understand why people moan so much on BBs. What good does it do them? It's not going to influence management and it's not going to attract new buyers. Just sell and move on.

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/12/2020 13:33

I've explained my take on the plan, the reason for a 6-9 month loss of time and the potential. It's fine if you don't share my confidence. Best of luck with whatever you favor.

[tiger60] 07/12/2020 13:24

Look we are all here to make money. I know you are unofficial chief cheerleader and apologist for Serabi but we are at the same level now as Sept 19.

We can keep calling out 100,000 oz is around the corner etc but it is slipping away into 2023. The gold rally will eventually peter out and then we will be in an awkward position.

500p? You can keep repeating it and believe that is the case but it does not make it true.

[tiger60] 07/12/2020 11:39

GGP at 33p. Talk about lost opportunity cost.

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/12/2020 10:07

Not putting a rocket under the price yet

[tightfist] 07/12/2020 10:00

The Buy's are being steadily walked-up this morning...

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/12/2020 07:45

Correction MCAP today is US$68M. Still tiny if they achieve their simple short term objective. 12-18 months away it could be 600-800% higher.

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/12/2020 07:18

Yes it is. It's also easy to calculate on the basic that they achieve the initial objectives in their "plan" - ie Palito & Coringa at full steam, leading to 100,000 ounces output and AISC of under US$1,000. FCF being US$80M at US$1,800 ounce. Why do you keep asking what the plan is. Read the report and listen to the Crux interview. Priority is Coringa. After that there's multiple other targets that could take us WAY higher than 100,000 per year. MCAP now US$60M. What will it be with annual FCF of US$80M???? There's the plan.

[sherry35] 07/12/2020 05:03

BJH - It is so easy to evaluate this company given the 5 years of publicly disclosed information. It is so easy.
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What's the plan?

[sherry35] 07/12/2020 05:02

melody9999 - Yep. It takes 5 years to detect poor execution of a business plan given the used car person sales pitches. This happened in another company, I'm currently invested in, that builds a mechanical-electrical device. I and 3 other investors got rid of the CEO and his dimwit family members.

With respect to my SRB/SBI investment, , I was originally invested in Kenai Resources because of the Larkin/Muntz team. Kenai got taken over by SRB, and one year later the KAI director resigned from SRB board. Again, I originally invested in the Au reserves in the ground and the Kenai mgmt. team.

There are egos at play in running this company. Similar to the mechanical-electrical company mentioned in the first paragraph, the CEO had these wild ideas that people would by out the intellectual property with out building and verifying the devices. Several veteran engineers gave him sound advice but his priority was making a high salary and double billing by his two ghost companies..

Same thing in this case. Attract investors with unproven reverses while banking large salaries. However, experienced mining investor candidates are on to this dog'n'pony show by building a timeline and mapping publicly stated events. How do I know? Here is my answers:
1) the REPUGNANT CLS with Greenwood,
2) 5 years of: 1) name dropping or conjecture 2) "continued failure to meet forward statements" and "have their timing issues" 3) un-clear high level plan.
3) late aggressive drill program disclosed in the Nov 2020 Investor Presentation

Take a look at MND.TSX's press releases. They just recently commissioned a $300k US columnar filtration unit into the Costerfield mill. This $300K plant extension will recover an additional 5000 to 7000 Au ounces. MND re-foretasted their 2020 Au production upwards. AND ... drum roll ... they did it during C19. SRB shutdown the ore sorter and lowered 2020 production by approx. 7000 Au oz..

On a aside. I don't believe the ore sorter was ever working properly. Where is the analysis on sorting the SC ore? The ore is delivered to the PC mill site every day so there should be an opportunity to test the ore sorter's capability. Why couldn't this plant been kept running during C19?

This company needs to be restructured - and soon. Until then, invest in MND.TSX which just happens to be a narrow width miner. They are a very aggressive Au miner with experienced mining teams. Their 2020 Au production forecast was raised.
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What's the plan?

[melody9999] 06/12/2020 23:19

Sherry35 - "From where I stand given the past 5 years ...."

Have you seriously wasted 5 years investing in SRB when you could have used your money - and time - more profitably elsewhere in a company where you actually like what they were doing?

[sherry35] 06/12/2020 16:45

Think about the "Let the major cover the meager $20M US costs of completing the mine". $20M US will by a considerable amount of drilled holes and assays. The faster we get to 5M Au ounces the quicker we get bought out.

Metric #1
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I've taken the liberty of using a P/F/A style status report to measure the 2021 drilling performance being managed by the SRB executive team. The planned (P) drilling metrics came directly from slide 12. I counted all the squares (drill targets) on the chart for each of the 8 regions at the PC. To reiterate, the planned (P) drilling targets came from slide 12. The forecast (F) drilling targets will be sourced from any document released by SRB. The actual (A) drilling results will come from the NI report. I solicit the forum for feedback on the planned (P) targets.



Metric #2
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All published investor presentations to date will remain visible and accessible from the SRB company Web site for the next 2 years.

Metric #3
=========
All required permits for the Coringa mining operation will be obtained by 2Q2021.

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What's the plan?

[sherry35] 06/12/2020 16:39

I believe the SRB permits have the Au goods. My exit strategy is to be bought out by a major. The strike price of the sale is based on the wealth in the ground. If it was me, I would complete the purchase of Coringa property (and equipment) and drill 50K meters of holes across all the permitted properties using revenue from the PC mining operations.

I would slow down or stop the implementation of the Coringa plant. Let the major cover the meager $20M US costs of completing the mine. Hell, they'll get it commissioned FASTER anyways. Once the Coringa purchase is complete, redirect all future profits into ramping up the drilling on PC, SD, and CO.

It's just a question of the exit strategy of the BOD and executive team. From where I stand given the past 5 years, I see a "living dead company" with high executive salaries and no payout to investors. I wonder what the investors and directors of the 3 major institutions, invested in SRB, are thinking? Is there starchy olde egos at play in building a mining company? Either way, two executives have clearly profited from SRB over the past 5+ years but the entire investor base has not.

DRILL THE @#$% PERMITS while we embrace another move in Au going into 2022. Prove up 5M mine-able Au ounces. Take the cheque and move on.
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What's the plan?

[sherry35] 06/12/2020 16:17

All - Don't let the euphoria effect of the POG moving north to cloud your judgement on the unique mgmt governing this company. How long do you think it will take the executive team, along with the under-talented mining directors, to build a open pit mine ("diversify into Pit mining")? Look at the timeline for the gold sorter which is primarily plugged into the front of the mill. As for an open pit mine under the current regime, I predict first pour from the pit ore in Dec 2025.

AGAIN, BE VERY CAREFUL OF CONJECTURE BY SRB EMPLOYEES COMMUNICATING IN THE VIDEOS AND INVESTOR PRESENTATIONS. Case in point, removal of farm-ins in the Nov presentations. Farm-ins verbally mentioned in videos. The 2nd case in point is the outcome of sorting the SC ore. What is the outcome? Can we sort it? There are cases of: 1) name dropping or conjecture 2) "continued failure to meet forward statements" and "have their timing issues" 3) un-clear high level plan

I'm getting the sound impression that SRB executive team and directors are using SRB as case study to get experience. I can see the inexperience is plodding pace of this company. And, they're afraid to make fast decisions or admit to their mistakes.

Don't let the POG cloud your judgement in the unique mgmt of SRB. The timeline and deliverables over the past arduous 5 years are speaking volumes to me right now. What about you?
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What's the plan?

[tightfist] 05/12/2020 15:51

Hi PPVN, I see it the same way.According to the recent CRUX MH interview (22/10, well worth another listen, especially from 11:00) MH took a look around our new tenements, sounded very excited, and the drilling access roads were being cut then.Whether we will witness SRB going it alone to diversify into Pit mining remains to be seen - the sight if all that Artisinal activity and acquisition of those tenements is bound to provoke more thoughts..Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 04/12/2020 22:18

I thought the majors interest was for the large West to east anomaly running across the entirety of their Palito/Sao Chico tenement rather than Toucano? I had a feeling they rather fancied trying their own hand at a pit...

[kennyp52] 04/12/2020 19:27

POG stability is going to help this enormously . Production , production , production ... equals cash , cash , cash .

[borisjohnsonshair] 04/12/2020 16:52

A good week and strong bounce. We are closer to the potential flow of BIG news. 200p soon

[borisjohnsonshair] 04/12/2020 16:36

Good week and we are closer to the flow of explorations updates = rising from here all through to 2022 and 3 quid

[ironstorm] 04/12/2020 13:57

Thanks BoJo - good summary to lift the supposed gloom. Reminds me why I have this as my third goldie.

I will shut up about MH for a while. Looking forward to similar levels of activity going forward.

[tightfist] 04/12/2020 13:45

I agree, results from Toucano plus other drillings around Sao Chico and the latest new tenements - searching for a potentially large Pit?IMO it's not an accident that IIRC the mention of majors was deleted in the latest presentation. Whether majors are off-the-table or just deferred is anyone's quess right now?