Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 14/8/2020 09:53

"with lower mine grades being the major contributor to the reduction in gold production."

Serabi have had the tail wind of a continuing weaker local Brazilian currency and lower fuel costs and yet their AISC continues to rise.


Serabi say if 40,000 oz mined their AISC would still of been $1,107 way above the sub $1,000 they said if last year would be by now. Typical Serabi always promising much more then they are able to deliver.

[cyberbub] 14/8/2020 09:51

I'm still surprised how high the cash cost is, considering the higher-than-average grades. Anyone got any insight why?Obviously a high cash cost/AISC gives a greater leverage effect *if" the POG keep rising - but it also increases risk.

[loganair] 14/8/2020 09:40

All-In Sustaining Cost for the year to date of US$1,265 per ounce.

Full year production would be expected to be between 34,000 and 37,000 ounces.

Record highs being reached in early August, and an average gold price for this current third quarter of approximately US$1,880 to date, compared with the average price achieved for the year to date of US$1,647 per ounce.

With the Sprott debt now repaid and given the levels of cash currently expected to be generated, management will continue to try to pay the on-going instalment payments for Coringa from cash flow generated from operations, and minimise the requirement to make further draw-downs against the Loan Note Facility.

Looking at the operational statistics during the first six months of the 2020, mined tonnage and plant throughput have been at similar levels to the same period in 2019 with lower mine grades being the major contributor to the reduction in gold production.

[mick1909] 14/8/2020 09:18

14 day RSI 65 still a buy from these levels

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/8/2020 09:18

All looks very good - they seem to know what they're doing re financing etc as well. Not always the case on AIM.

As people have said, the loan facility thing might be a reason for an overhang, or maybe has been until now but no longer, as they have stated that they intend to try to minimise future use and fund everything through cashflow, which they can do if metals prices remains at current sort of levels.

Other than that (which I see as a downside that has probably stopped being a downside), I don't see any real downside from these sort of prices.

And (as a non-chartist), is this a breakout from previous resistance levels pointed out by the other thread's resident contrarian indicator? Sure looks like it.

[king suarez] 14/8/2020 09:15

V pleased with that. Well undervalued (like most goldies atm).

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/8/2020 09:11

Great solid update. Awesome future

[mick1909] 14/8/2020 08:14

Doesnt look like its tanking

[mick1909] 14/8/2020 08:13

I think it will then that resistance will get taken out next point 110p

[ironstorm] 14/8/2020 08:06

This is a great comment.

"Cashflow generated from operations was US$5.85 million and after
accounting for capital expenditures the net operational cash flow of
US$4.2 million represents the best level of quarterly cash flow
generated by the Company to date.

Kerching!

[tiger60] 14/8/2020 08:01

Might get your £1 today

[ppvn] 14/8/2020 07:31

Agree with both of you! Buy Palito with a 65% workforce on a 5x multiple and get everything else chucked in free!

By the end of the year their production should be c.30% higher as the camp is being extended at the moment so really its a case of "buy palito at around a 3.5x multiple and everything else is free"...

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/8/2020 07:30

You are right there. There's loads of bio's worth 4-10 times SRBs MCAP and have zero FDA approvals! The Nasdaq is full of good and bad companies with PEs of 40-80!!! The income just ain't there. SRB can pump out US$20M a year from Palito and double that after Corning's, and only improve as gold rises more. What's not to like about that.

[mick1909] 14/8/2020 07:26

I think the rainbow chasers are chasing pharma and tech companies but when they realise that a tech bubble is about to pop that gold prices are here to stay a while then the mining stocks will show true value

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/8/2020 07:17

I agree with this but that assumes zero value for Coringa and the exploration potential. The second the license is approved the PEA detailed NAV should be added. It doubles your valuation when in production. The huge exploration potential- who knows but it sounds massive.

[mick1909] 14/8/2020 07:11

Looking at approx 14mil profit year end with production guidance and spot gold price which puts this share at 5:1 pe at a mcap of $70 million usually companies have 10:1 so i expect the share price to at least double before year end

[ppvn] 14/8/2020 00:03

Thanks Redtrend (and logan)!

I haven't been monitoring that closely but I suppose the point I'm trying to make is that I'm an area twice the size of the UK there have seemingly been relatively few cases... long may it last.

[loganair] 13/8/2020 23:21

Para, Brazil - Cases: 171,878 - Deaths: 5,909

[redtrend] 13/8/2020 23:13

PPVN - those are the stats for the last 14 days only, you need to go to "total cases".

However the slowdown in cases in last 14 days either shows social distancing is working or Para state is reaching close to herd immunity.

[ppvn] 13/8/2020 22:58

Just to confirm its 20,059 cases in Para with 8 additional cases today.

[redtrend] 13/8/2020 22:53

Brazil must be reaching close to herd immunity and when European countries will be going through a 2nd/3rd wave in winter, Brazil could look like a completely different space.

The UK just produced one of the largest study of random antibody testing (100k), showing that 6% had exposure and antibodies to COVID19 (extrapolating - 3.4million of the population, compared to 300k in the official registered tally who actually got tested whilst sick (10x more)). This antibody test wouldn't even pick up those asymptomatic or mild condition who had natural immunity and produced none or few antibodies (separate studies show these types of cases could be in region of 30-40%). So UK is probably closer to 10% exposure.

Brazil has 3.2million recorded cases and far less testing than UK (63k tests per day per 1million of popn, compared to UK's 200k). Recorded cases are already 1.5% of popn, so extrapolating same methodology as that shown in UK (and indeed other studies in Mumbai & Delhi showing those living in slums had 25% exposure with antibodies), Brazil could be in the 20-30% region already.

Para state itself has been just as hard hit as other regions and yet SRB have weathered the worst of it in Q2 and no reason to think Q3 wont be just as professionally managed. Para has popn of 8m and already registered 172k COVID19 infections (2.15%), so again due to lack of testing and extrapolating UK study above, could be in 30% region already.

Once you hit 50%, naturally the R rate reduces below 1 and herd immunity becomes closer to reality.

It's been brutal, but Brazil could possibly avoid a 2nd wave and then be near front of queue in early 2021 if one of the Oxford-Astra or CanSino Chinese vaccines are successful, considering Brazil have allowed both to be mass tested in Phase 3 trials.

[backinblack80] 13/8/2020 22:51

lognair, bearing in mind Brazils population is circa 212million. That stat is pretty insignificant. Even more insignificant when it's considered in respect to relatively young healthy individuals (miners)
So, what is your point, pls explain....

[ppvn] 13/8/2020 22:10

How many in Para state, logan?

Sao Paolo accounts for the vast majority of cases and as has been discussed at length Serabi have robust controls in place.